From the model desk
Where our college football model and the market disagree, how the platforms compare, and the basics of trading prediction markets.
Kansas State 2026: No Title Price, Big 12 Model Read
Kansas State 2026 futures carry no national title price on Kalshi or Polymarket. Here is where the model stands, the Big 12 read, and the board it must clear.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: The CFB Best-Price Scorecard
Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football prices: Kalshi posts the best price on 8 of 12 national title contracts, but Polymarket owns the tail. Here is the split.
South Carolina 2026: No Title Price, SEC Value Read
South Carolina 2026 futures do not appear on the national title board, sitting below Alabama's 1.7% floor. Here is where the model stands and the SEC read.
Heisman Value Tier: Where Price Undercuts the Model
The biggest Heisman edges sit in the tail: Florida trades at 2c against a 4% model fair value and Alabama at 1c against 1.7%, while Ole Miss reads as the top overpay.
Oklahoma at Georgia: Model Gives Georgia 78% Week 4
The model gives Georgia a 78% win probability over Oklahoma on September 26, and prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket price the Week 4 SEC matchup.
CFB Title Fades: Cheapest Venue Still Over Fair
Even at the cheapest venue, the college football national-title market prices Texas, Ohio State, Ole Miss and Miami above the model's fair value.
USC 2026 Futures: Title Odds and Model's Read
USC 2026 futures price at 1.8% fair value with a best price of 2c on Polymarket, parking the Trojans in the tail of the title board with no model edge.
Power Ratings to Fair Value: The CFB Model Math
How the college football model turns power ratings into fair value: simulate the season, price every title path, then de-vig venue quotes into one consensus.
Oklahoma at Georgia headlines Week 4: trading the September 26 game on Polymarket with code TGSWC
Oklahoma at Georgia is a marquee Week 4 game on the board for Saturday, September 26. Here is how a matchup of two national-title contenders reprices Polymarket's championship market, and how the promo code TGSWC works for it.
Texas at Tennessee headlines Week 4: trading the September 26 game on Kalshi with code FADE
Texas at Tennessee is a marquee Week 4 SEC game on the board for Saturday, September 26. Here is how the game-winner market reads on Kalshi's regulated exchange, and how the promo code FADE works for it.
Texas A&M 2026: Below the Title Board, SEC Read
Texas A&M sits off the priced 2026 national title board, below the 1.7% floor. Here is where SEC futures value lands and where the model stands on the Aggies.
Why Prediction-Market Prices Move: Reading the Signal
Prediction-market prices move on three forces: liquidity, news and model fair value. Here is how to read which one is driving a CFB futures price.
Ole Miss 2026 Outlook: Title Futures, SEC Odds, Model
Ole Miss 2026 title futures sit at 2.6% fair value with a best price of 4c on Kalshi, putting the model on the fade side of a longshot SEC contract.
Dark-Horse CFB Value: Oregon Tops the Longshot Edge
Dark-horse college football value is thin: Oregon and Alabama are the only longshots trading at or below the model's fair value, while Ole Miss screens rich.
LSU at Ole Miss Week 3: Trade the Model's 35% Read
LSU at Ole Miss on Saturday, week 3: the model gives Ole Miss a 35% win probability. How the prediction markets price it and where to trade on Kalshi or Polymarket.
ProphetX Explained: Exchange vs Sportsbook
ProphetX is a peer-to-peer sports exchange, not a sportsbook: traders set the price, a commission replaces the vig, and CFB contracts settle at fair value.
Miami 2026 Outlook: Futures Value and Model Read
Miami's 2026 national title contract trades at 11c on Kalshi against a 9.8% model fair value, leaving the futures price a shade rich for the ACC's lone board team.
Are Prediction Markets Legal for College Football?
Prediction markets are legal for college football in most US states via CFTC-regulated exchanges, distinct from sportsbooks. What traders should check first.
Tennessee 2026: Futures Value, Title and SEC Odds
Tennessee sits off the 2026 national title board, priced below the 1.8% tail. Here is where the futures value, SEC odds and the model stand right now.
Make-the-Playoff Markets: Underpriced Contenders
In make-the-playoff markets read through title equity, Indiana at 7c and Alabama at 2c are the only CFB contenders trading below the model's fair value.
LSU at Ole Miss Week 3: Model Gives Ole Miss 35%
LSU at Ole Miss on Saturday, September 19: the model prices Ole Miss at a 35% win probability, LSU at 65%. Here is how to trade the Week 3 game on Kalshi.
Conference-Title Value: The Model's Read by League
Conference-title value read through the national-title board: Texas leads the SEC at 13.3%, Ohio State a top-heavy Big Ten at 11%, and Indiana screens cheap at 7c.
Michigan 2026 Futures: Title, Big Ten Odds, Model
Michigan 2026 futures sit off the national title board, below Alabama's 1.5% floor. Here is the Big Ten pricing context and where the model stands.
Win-Total Value: LSU, Indiana Screen Below Fair
Win-total value screens on the same divergence logic as the title board, and LSU and Indiana are the college football teams the model flags trading below fair value.
Clemson 2026: Off the Title Board, ACC Value Read
Clemson 2026 sits off the national title board with no listed contract, while ACC rival Miami prices at 10.2% fair value. Here is where the model stands.
CFB Futures Prices: What 12c Really Means
A 12c CFB futures contract implies roughly a 12% chance, but raw prices run hot. Here is how to read futures prices as probabilities and where fair value sits.
Notre Dame 2026: Title Futures, Model Value
Notre Dame tops the 2026 CFB title board at 11.1% fair value, with the best contract at 12c on Kalshi. Here is where the model stands and why there is no conference market.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Has Better CFB Prices
Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football: Polymarket posts the cheapest price on seven of twelve national-title contracts, but Kalshi owns the top of the board.
Oklahoma at Michigan headlines Week 2: trading the September 12 game on Novig with code VAULT
Oklahoma at Michigan is a marquee Week 2 game on the board for Saturday, September 12. Here is how Novig's no-vig sweepstakes college football markets read, and how the promo code VAULT works for it.
Ohio State at Texas: Model Gives Texas 45% Week 2
Ohio State at Texas kicks off Saturday, September 12. The model gives Texas a 45% win probability. Here is how prediction markets price it on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Heisman Edges: Title Equity Flags the Real Gaps
The biggest Heisman edges track the title market: Ohio State's 13c price tops a 10.8% fair value, while Oregon and Notre Dame sit closer to model fair.
Penn State 2026: Title, Big Ten Odds, Model Read
Penn State 2026 futures sit below the tracked CFB title board, under the 2c floor Alabama holds. Here is where the model stands and what would move the price.
CFB Title Fades: Ohio State's 13c Tops Fair Value
The model fades the priciest national-title contracts: Ohio State at 13c against 11% fair value tops the board, while Texas at 7c reads closest to fair.
Oregon 2026 Futures: Title Value, Big Ten, Model
Oregon 2026 futures: the model's fair value sits at 10.3% with a best title price of 11c on Kalshi, the third-shortest number on the board.
Fair Value Mechanics: From Power Ratings to CFB Prices
How the college football model converts power ratings into fair value: a per-game win probability, a full-season simulation, then a de-vigged cross-venue price.
Ohio State at Texas headlines Week 2: trading the September 12 game on Polymarket with code TGSWC
Ohio State at Texas is the marquee Week 2 game on the board for Saturday, September 12. Here is how a matchup of two national-title contenders reprices Polymarket's championship market, and how the promo code TGSWC works for it.
Ohio State at Texas: Model Gives Texas 32% Week 2
Ohio State at Texas on Saturday, September 12: the model gives Texas a 32% win probability, and here is how the prediction markets price the week 2 matchup.
CFB Futures Prices: Three Forces Behind Every Move
CFB futures prices move on three forces: liquidity, news and the model's fair value. Here is how each shifts the national title board and where value sits now.
Georgia 2026 Outlook: Title Futures and Model Value
Georgia's 2026 national title fair value sits at 8%, with the cheapest contract at 9c on Kalshi. Here is where the model stands on the Bulldogs and the SEC tier.
Longshot CFB Title Value: The 2c Tier Read
Longshot college football title contracts trade at 2c to 3c, and the model finds thin edges: Alabama prices slightly rich while Texas A&M and Oklahoma sit at fair.
Ohio State 2026: Futures Value, Title Odds, Model
Ohio State 2026 title futures carry an 11.1% model fair value against a best price of 13c on Kalshi, second on the board behind Oregon. Here is where the model stands.
ProphetX Explained: How a Sports Exchange Differs
ProphetX is a peer-to-peer sports prediction exchange: traders set prices against each other on an order book, with no sportsbook margin baked into the CFB line.
Sacramento State 2026: Why It's Off Every Board
Sacramento State 2026 carries no national title or conference futures price across Kalshi and Polymarket, and the model publishes no fair value where nothing trades.
Are Prediction Markets Legal for CFB? Trader Basics
Are prediction markets legal for college football? For most US traders, yes on regulated event-contract venues, though access varies by venue and by state.
Boise State at Oregon: Trading the Week 1 Ducks Price
Boise State at Oregon kicks off Week 1 on Saturday, September 5. The model gives Oregon a 95% win probability. Here is how the prediction markets price it.
Underpriced Playoff Contenders: The Fair-Value Read
Make-the-playoff markets rarely price a discount, but Miami trades at 8c against 8.3% fair value. Here is where playoff contenders sit below the model's fair value.
Nebraska 2026: Off the Title Board, Model's Read
Nebraska 2026 sits off the CFB title board, with the model implying below the 2.5% floor Oklahoma holds; here is where Big Ten futures value actually lands.
Conference-Title Markets: Where Model Value Sits 2026
Conference-title markets read cleanest through the national-title board: the model finds value at the SEC tail, with Oklahoma the lone contract under fair value.
Boise State 2026: Title, Conference Odds, Model Read
Boise State 2026 outlook: the Broncos sit off the CFB national title board, priced below the roughly 2 percent floor held by the market's cheapest listed teams.
Win-Total Value: USC, Oklahoma Trade Below Fair
Win-total value screens cheapest where price sits under fair value: USC at 2c and Oklahoma at 2c are the only CFB title contracts trading below the model's line.
Boise State at Oregon: Model Gives Ducks 95%
Boise State at Oregon in Week 1: the model gives Oregon a 95% win probability, and the prediction markets price the Ducks near the top of the CFB title board.
Reading CFB Futures Prices as Probabilities
A field guide to reading college football futures prices as probabilities: convert cents to implied odds, strip the vig, and compare price to fair value.
Colorado at Georgia Tech: trading the September 3 Week 1 game on ProphetX with code VAULT
Colorado at Georgia Tech is a Week 1 nonconference game on the board for Thursday, September 3. Here is how the single-game moneyline reads on ProphetX's peer-to-peer exchange, and how the promo code VAULT works for it.
Utah 2026 Outlook: Futures Value and Model Read
Utah 2026 futures sit off the national title board: the model places the Utes below the price floor where listed contracts begin, a Big 12 role, not a title tier.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: The CFB Price Split by Venue
Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football is a near split: Kalshi holds the top title favorites, Polymarket carries the tail, and shopping both is the edge.
Prediction market promo codes: what four verified codes actually add up to
Aggregator listings advertise a single stacked prediction-market promo total. Here is what our four verified codes, Polymarket TGSWC, Kalshi FADE, ProphetX VAULT and Novig VAULT, really add up to, and the two caveats that keep the number honest.
Auburn 2026 Outlook: Futures, Title and SEC Odds
Auburn's 2026 futures outlook: the national title market keeps the Tigers off the board, and the model reads them below the priced SEC tier on conference odds.
Heisman Edges: Where Title Prices Disagree Most
The biggest Heisman edges trace back to title markets: Notre Dame carries the widest price-over-model gap, while Miami and Oregon trade closest to model fair value.
NC State at Virginia: trading the August 29 Week 1 opener on Kalshi with code FADE
NC State at Virginia is a Week 1 ACC opener on the board for Saturday, August 29. Here is how the single-game market reads on Kalshi's regulated exchange, and how the promo code FADE works for it.
Florida State 2026: Off the Title Board, ACC Value
Florida State 2026 futures carry no priced national-title equity: the Seminoles sit off the board while Miami anchors the ACC. Where the model stands.
Where the Model Fades the CFB Title Market Now
The CFB national-title market's widest fade is Notre Dame at 13c against a 10.9% fair value, with Ohio State and Texas close behind and Oregon priced clean.
Virginia vs NC State: Model Gives Cavaliers 61%
NC State at Virginia opens Week 1 on Saturday, August 29. The model gives Virginia a 61% win probability. Here is how the prediction markets price the game.
How the CFB Model Turns Power Ratings Into Fair Value
A look inside how the college football model converts power ratings into title fair value, then de-vigs live market prices to flag which contracts trade cheap.
SMU 2026 Outlook: Futures, Title and ACC Odds
SMU sits off the 2026 CFB title board, with no national-title contract priced across Kalshi or Polymarket. Here is where the model stands on the Mustangs and ACC value.
How Liquidity and News Move CFB Futures Prices
CFB futures prices move on three inputs: liquidity, news and the model's fair value. Here is how each reprices title contracts, with the current board as the guide.
Florida 2026: SEC Odds and Where the Model Stands
Florida 2026 does not appear on the national title board across Kalshi or Polymarket. Here is where the model stands and how the priced SEC field compares.
Dark-Horse Value: Longshot CFB Teams the Model Backs
Longshot college football title contracts mostly trade above fair value, but Texas A&M screens as the one dark-horse whose best price undercuts the model's number.
Virginia Favored vs NC State: Week 1 Market Read
NC State at Virginia (Aug 29) opens Week 1 with the model giving Virginia a 61% win probability. Here is how the prediction markets price the game.
Sports Exchange vs Sportsbook: How ProphetX Works
A sports prediction exchange like ProphetX matches traders against each other with no built-in vig, unlike a sportsbook that prices against the customer.
Kansas State 2026: Futures Value and the Model's Read
Kansas State 2026 futures sit off the national title board, below the market's 2c floor. Where the model places the Wildcats and how the Big 12 path reads.
CFB Prediction Markets: Legality Traders Should Know
Prediction markets for college football trade as event contracts on regulated exchanges, not sportsbooks. Here is what CFB traders should know about legality.
South Carolina 2026: Futures Value and Model Read
South Carolina 2026 futures sit off the national title board, priced below the SEC's cheapest listed contracts. Here is where the model stands and what the board shows.
Make-the-Playoff Value: Miami, Alabama Underpriced
Make-the-playoff markets favor Miami and Alabama: they are the only title-board contenders whose best price trades under the model's fair value right now.
Oklahoma 2026 Futures: Title Value and Model Read
Oklahoma's 2026 national title price sits at 2c on Polymarket against a 1.9% model fair value, leaving the Sooners at the floor of the SEC futures board.
Conference-Title Markets: Big Ten's Top-Heavy Edge
Conference-title markets track the same power ratings as the national board, and it splits clean: the Big Ten stacks equity at the top while the SEC spreads it thin.
Clemson at LSU headlines Week 1: trading the opener on Polymarket with code TGSWC
Clemson at LSU is the marquee Week 1 game on the board for Saturday, September 5. With kickoff approaching, here is how the result feeds Polymarket's national championship market, and how the promo code TGSWC works for it.
USC 2026 Outlook: Conference Odds and Model Value
USC does not appear on the CFB national title board, placing its fair value below the roughly 2.1% floor priced across Kalshi and Polymarket for 2026.
Win-Total Value: Alabama, Oklahoma Screen Cheapest
Win-total value screen: the model flags Alabama and Oklahoma as the CFB contracts trading cheapest to fair value, while Ohio State and Texas run rich.
Auburn vs Baylor opens Week 1: trading the neutral-site kickoff on Kalshi with code FADE
Auburn vs Baylor is a neutral-site Week 1 kickoff on the board for Saturday, September 5. Here is how the game reads on Kalshi's regulated exchange, and how the promo code FADE works for it.
Texas A&M 2026: Title, SEC Tier, Model Stance
Texas A&M's 2026 national title fair value sits at 2.5%, with the cheapest contract at 3c on Polymarket. Here is where the model stands on the SEC tier.
Read CFB Futures Prices as Probabilities: How-To
A practical guide to reading college football futures prices as probabilities: convert cents to implied odds, strip the vig, and locate fair value on the board.
Texas A&M 2026 Outlook: Title Value, SEC, Model
Texas A&M 2026 futures value: the model's fair value is 2.6%, best price 3c on Polymarket. Here is the title read, SEC context, and where value sits.
CFB Futures Prices: Turning Cents Into Probability
A college football futures price in cents is a rough probability, but raw prices overstate it. Here is how to convert cents to de-vigged fair value.
Ole Miss 2026 Outlook: Off the Title Board
Ole Miss sits off the 2026 CFB national-title board, with no priced contract. Here is where the model stands and where SEC futures value actually sits.
Kalshi Owns CFB Favorites, Polymarket Owns Tail
Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football: Kalshi posts the cheapest price on every title favorite, while Polymarket wins the longshot tail of the board.
Indiana 2026 Outlook: Title, Big Ten Odds, Model
Indiana 2026 futures price at 8.7% model fair value with a 9c best contract on Kalshi, one of the tightest price-to-fair gaps on the national title board.
Heisman Value: Where Title Prices Misread the Race
The biggest Heisman edges show up in title prices: Ohio State and Notre Dame carry the steepest premium, while Oregon, Indiana and Alabama trade closest to model fair value.
Miami 2026 Outlook: Title Value, ACC, Model Stance
Miami's 2026 national title fair value is 6.7%, with the cheapest contract at 8c on Polymarket. Here is where the model stands and how the ACC board reads.
CFB Title Fades: The Price Floor Above Fair Value
The model fades the top of the CFB national-title board: Texas at 12c against 9.9% fair value leads a set of contracts priced above the model's number.
Tennessee 2026: Off the Title Board, Model's SEC View
Tennessee 2026 futures: the Vols sit off the CFB national title board as the priced SEC field runs from Georgia to Oklahoma. Where the model stands.
How Power Ratings Become CFB Fair Value
How the college football model turns power ratings into fair value: simulating the season, converting to title probability, and de-vigging market prices.
North Carolina vs TCU headlines Week 1: trading the opener on ProphetX with code VAULT
North Carolina vs TCU is a neutral-site Week 1 opener on the board. Here is how the game trades on ProphetX's peer-to-peer exchange, and how the promo code VAULT works for it.
LSU 2026 Futures: Title Odds and Model Value
LSU sits at 5% fair value on the CFB national title board, with the cheapest contract at 6c on Polymarket. Here is where the model stands on LSU futures.
Why Prediction-Market Prices Move in CFB Futures
Prediction-market prices move on three forces: liquidity, fresh news and the model's fair value. Here is how each pushes CFB title contracts around the board.
Michigan 2026: Off the Title Board, Big Ten Value
Michigan 2026 futures: the model quotes no national title price for the Wolverines, who sit below a tracked board where Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana lead the Big Ten.
Dark-Horse CFB Value: Longshots the Model Rates
A screen of the CFB title board's longshot tier shows Alabama at 2c is the only sub-fair contract, while Texas A&M and the mid-tier pay a clear premium.
Clemson 2026 Outlook: Futures Value and Model Stance
Clemson 2026 sits off the national title board: the model keeps the Tigers below the 12 priced contracts, where Ohio State and Notre Dame lead at 11.3% fair value.
ProphetX vs Sportsbook: What Changes for CFB Traders
ProphetX is a peer-to-peer prediction exchange, not a house-banked sportsbook: how order-book matching, commission and settlement change CFB trading.
The 2026 Heisman race on Kalshi: trading the award market with code FADE
Kalshi lists a 2026 Heisman Trophy winner market that reprices every week of the season. Here is how the award market reads as probability, and how the promo code FADE works for it.
Notre Dame 2026: Title Value, No Conference Market
Notre Dame's 2026 title value sits at 11.3% fair, tied for the model's top spot, with the cheapest contract at 13c on Kalshi and no conference market to trade.
CFB Prediction Markets: What Traders Should Know
Prediction markets for college football trade on regulated and offshore venues. Here is what traders should know about legality, access, and the CFB title board.
Alabama 2026 Outlook: Title Value, SEC Odds, Model
Alabama 2026 title futures carry a 2.4% model fair value and a best price of 2c on Polymarket, one of the few tail contracts trading under the model's mark.
Playoff Markets: Contenders Trading Closest to Fair
Make-the-playoff markets carry vig, but a few contenders trade near model fair value: Alabama sits below it, with Indiana and Oregon close behind on price.
Penn State 2026 Outlook: Below the CFB Title Board
Penn State 2026 futures sit below the tracked CFB title board, under Oklahoma's 2.1% floor. Here is where the model stands on the Nittany Lions.
Conference-Title Value: Big Ten and SEC Lead the Board
Conference-title value concentrates in the Big Ten and SEC, where Ohio State (11.4%) and Texas (9.6%) top national-title fair value, while Notre Dame sits out.
Oregon 2026: Futures Value and Model Stance
Oregon's 2026 national title contract carries a model fair value of 10.3%, with the cheapest price at 11c on Kalshi. Here is where the futures value sits.
Win-Total Value: CFB Teams the Model Calls Mispriced
Win-total value in college football title markets sits with Alabama and Oklahoma, the only contracts trading at or below the model's de-vigged fair value.
Texas 2026 Outlook: Title Value and the Model's Edge
Texas 2026 title futures carry a model fair value of 9.6%, with the best price at 11c on Polymarket. Here is where the model stands and how the SEC race prices out.
How to Read CFB Futures Prices as Probabilities
A plain-English guide to reading college football futures prices as probabilities: convert the cents, strip out the vig, then compare best price to model fair value.
Georgia 2026 Futures: Title Odds and Model Value
Georgia 2026 title futures carry a model fair value of 9.1%, with the cheapest contract at 10c on Kalshi. Here is where price and model diverge.
Kalshi or Polymarket: Cheapest CFB Price by Team
Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football: the cheapest national-title price splits by team, with Kalshi owning the mid-board and Polymarket the top seed and tail.
Ohio State 2026 Outlook: Futures Value, Model Edge
Ohio State 2026 futures price as the model's near co-favorite: 11.1% fair value on the national title, with the cheapest contract at 12c on Kalshi.
Heisman Edges: Reading Value Through Title Equity
The biggest Heisman edges read through team title equity: Notre Dame, Texas and Miami carry the richest premiums, while Alabama trades under fair value.
Sacramento State 2026: Futures, Odds, Model Stance
Sacramento State has no 2026 CFB national title contract listed. Here is why the model assigns no futures value and what the traded title board prices instead.
CFB Title Fades: Where Price Tops Model Fair Value
The CFB national-title fades right now sit with Miami and LSU, whose contracts carry the widest premium to the model's fair value, with Notre Dame and Texas close behind.
North Dakota State 2026: Off the CFB Title Board
North Dakota State sits off the CFB national title board in 2026: as an FCS program, no venue prices a futures contract, so the model carries no fair value.
Inside the Model: Power Ratings to CFB Fair Value
How the CFB model turns power ratings into fair value: simulate the season, convert win paths to probabilities, de-vig market prices, then read the edge.
Nebraska 2026: Futures Value, Title and Big Ten Odds
Nebraska 2026 futures sit below the CFB title board, with no priced national-title contract. Here is where the model stands on the Cornhuskers and Big Ten value.
What Moves Prediction-Market Prices in CFB Futures
Prediction-market prices move on three forces: order-book liquidity, incoming news, and the model's fair value. Here is how each shows up in CFB title contracts.
Boise State 2026: Futures Value and Model Stance
Boise State 2026 futures sit off the tracked national title board, where the priced field runs from Ohio State at 11.1% down to Oklahoma at 2.1% fair value.
Dark-Horse CFB Edges: One Longshot Under Fair Value
Dark-horse CFB edges are scarce: most longshot title contracts trade over model fair value, but Alabama at 2c sits below its 2.5% fair mark on Polymarket.
Arizona State 2026: Big 12 Odds and Model Stance
Arizona State sits off the 2026 national title board, priced below the roughly 2.1% floor of listed contracts. Here is the Big 12 read and the model's view.
ProphetX Exchange: No Vig, Peer-to-Peer Pricing
ProphetX is a sports prediction exchange, not a sportsbook: traders set prices against each other and pay commission instead of vig. Here is how that reshapes CFB pricing.
Utah 2026: Off the Title Board, Model's View
Utah's 2026 national title odds are absent from the board: no priced contract on Kalshi or Polymarket. Here is where the model stands and where Big 12 value sits.
CFB Prediction Markets: Are They Legal to Trade?
College football prediction markets trade legally in most US states on CFTC-regulated event exchanges. Here is how the venues differ and how the contracts settle.
Auburn 2026 Outlook: Off the Title Board, SEC Value
Auburn 2026 title futures do not appear among the priced national-title contracts. Here is where the model stands and where the SEC's real value sits.
CFB Playoff Markets: Where Price Beats Fair Value
In CFB playoff markets, Alabama is the lone title contract trading below model fair value, at 2c against a 2.5% mark, the cleanest underpriced contender on the board.
Washington 2026: Title, Big Ten Odds, Model Value
Washington sits below the priced CFB national title board for 2026, with no listed futures value. Here is where the model stands and how the Big Ten field prices.
Win-Total Value: The Contracts the Model Calls Cheap
Win-total value in college football markets is scarce: only Alabama and Oklahoma trade at or below the model's fair value, while the title favorites all carry a premium.
SMU 2026 Outlook: Title, ACC Odds, Model Value
SMU 2026 sits off the CFB national title board, under the market's 2.5% priced floor. Here is where the model stands and how the ACC picture frames the value.
Florida 2026: Off the Title Board, Where Value Sits
Florida 2026 futures do not appear on the national title board. The Gators' implied title probability sits below the roughly 2.3% floor the priced contracts hold.
CFB title odds: where our model fades the market
Our model and the market disagree most on a handful of national-title contenders. Here are the biggest gaps on Kalshi and Polymarket right now, and why.
Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football futures
Both list college football futures, but fees, funding and contract selection differ. Here is how Kalshi and Polymarket compare for CFB traders.
How CFB futures prices map to probability
A 32-cent contract implies a 32% chance. Here is how to read college football prediction-market prices as probabilities, and where it breaks down.