From the model desk
Where our college football model and the market disagree, how the platforms compare, and the basics of trading prediction markets.
Oregon 2026: Futures Value and Model Stance
Oregon's 2026 national title contract carries a model fair value of 10.3%, with the cheapest price at 11c on Kalshi. Here is where the futures value sits.
Win-Total Value: CFB Teams the Model Calls Mispriced
Win-total value in college football title markets sits with Alabama and Oklahoma, the only contracts trading at or below the model's de-vigged fair value.
Texas 2026 Outlook: Title Value and the Model's Edge
Texas 2026 title futures carry a model fair value of 9.6%, with the best price at 11c on Polymarket. Here is where the model stands and how the SEC race prices out.
How to Read CFB Futures Prices as Probabilities
A plain-English guide to reading college football futures prices as probabilities: convert the cents, strip out the vig, then compare best price to model fair value.
Georgia 2026 Futures: Title Odds and Model Value
Georgia 2026 title futures carry a model fair value of 9.1%, with the cheapest contract at 10c on Kalshi. Here is where price and model diverge.
Kalshi or Polymarket: Cheapest CFB Price by Team
Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football: the cheapest national-title price splits by team, with Kalshi owning the mid-board and Polymarket the top seed and tail.
Ohio State 2026 Outlook: Futures Value, Model Edge
Ohio State 2026 futures price as the model's near co-favorite: 11.1% fair value on the national title, with the cheapest contract at 12c on Kalshi.
Heisman Edges: Reading Value Through Title Equity
The biggest Heisman edges read through team title equity: Notre Dame, Texas and Miami carry the richest premiums, while Alabama trades under fair value.
Sacramento State 2026: Futures, Odds, Model Stance
Sacramento State has no 2026 CFB national title contract listed. Here is why the model assigns no futures value and what the traded title board prices instead.
CFB Title Fades: Where Price Tops Model Fair Value
The CFB national-title fades right now sit with Miami and LSU, whose contracts carry the widest premium to the model's fair value, with Notre Dame and Texas close behind.
North Dakota State 2026: Off the CFB Title Board
North Dakota State sits off the CFB national title board in 2026: as an FCS program, no venue prices a futures contract, so the model carries no fair value.
Inside the Model: Power Ratings to CFB Fair Value
How the CFB model turns power ratings into fair value: simulate the season, convert win paths to probabilities, de-vig market prices, then read the edge.
Nebraska 2026: Futures Value, Title and Big Ten Odds
Nebraska 2026 futures sit below the CFB title board, with no priced national-title contract. Here is where the model stands on the Cornhuskers and Big Ten value.
What Moves Prediction-Market Prices in CFB Futures
Prediction-market prices move on three forces: order-book liquidity, incoming news, and the model's fair value. Here is how each shows up in CFB title contracts.
Boise State 2026: Futures Value and Model Stance
Boise State 2026 futures sit off the tracked national title board, where the priced field runs from Ohio State at 11.1% down to Oklahoma at 2.1% fair value.
Dark-Horse CFB Edges: One Longshot Under Fair Value
Dark-horse CFB edges are scarce: most longshot title contracts trade over model fair value, but Alabama at 2c sits below its 2.5% fair mark on Polymarket.
Arizona State 2026: Big 12 Odds and Model Stance
Arizona State sits off the 2026 national title board, priced below the roughly 2.1% floor of listed contracts. Here is the Big 12 read and the model's view.
ProphetX Exchange: No Vig, Peer-to-Peer Pricing
ProphetX is a sports prediction exchange, not a sportsbook: traders set prices against each other and pay commission instead of vig. Here is how that reshapes CFB pricing.
Utah 2026: Off the Title Board, Model's View
Utah's 2026 national title odds are absent from the board: no priced contract on Kalshi or Polymarket. Here is where the model stands and where Big 12 value sits.
CFB Prediction Markets: Are They Legal to Trade?
College football prediction markets trade legally in most US states on CFTC-regulated event exchanges. Here is how the venues differ and how the contracts settle.
Auburn 2026 Outlook: Off the Title Board, SEC Value
Auburn 2026 title futures do not appear among the priced national-title contracts. Here is where the model stands and where the SEC's real value sits.
CFB Playoff Markets: Where Price Beats Fair Value
In CFB playoff markets, Alabama is the lone title contract trading below model fair value, at 2c against a 2.5% mark, the cleanest underpriced contender on the board.
Washington 2026: Title, Big Ten Odds, Model Value
Washington sits below the priced CFB national title board for 2026, with no listed futures value. Here is where the model stands and how the Big Ten field prices.
Win-Total Value: The Contracts the Model Calls Cheap
Win-total value in college football markets is scarce: only Alabama and Oklahoma trade at or below the model's fair value, while the title favorites all carry a premium.
SMU 2026 Outlook: Title, ACC Odds, Model Value
SMU 2026 sits off the CFB national title board, under the market's 2.5% priced floor. Here is where the model stands and how the ACC picture frames the value.
Reading CFB Futures Prices as Probabilities
A field guide to reading college football futures prices as probabilities: how cents map to odds, why de-vigging matters, and where raw price overstates the real number.
Florida 2026: Off the Title Board, Where Value Sits
Florida 2026 futures do not appear on the national title board. The Gators' implied title probability sits below the roughly 2.3% floor the priced contracts hold.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Cheaper CFB Title Prices
Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football: the cheapest venue splits by team, with Kalshi holding the best price on six title contracts and Polymarket the rest.
Missouri 2026: Title, Conference Odds, Model Value
Missouri sits off the CFB national title board for 2026. Here is where the futures market, the SEC title picture and the model's fair value leave the Tigers.
Heisman Edges: Biggest Model vs Market Gaps
The biggest Heisman edges surface where the model and the market disagree on title probability, and Indiana leads: 9c contracts against a 10.8% fair value.
Kansas State 2026 Outlook: Futures and Model Value
Kansas State 2026 futures sit below the priced national title board. The model reads the Wildcats as a sub-floor longshot, beneath Alabama's 2.2% mark.
CFB Title Fades: Contracts Trading Over Fair Value
The model fades seven college football national-title contracts, led by LSU at 6c on Polymarket against a 5.1% fair value. Here is the full board and every gap.
South Carolina 2026 Outlook: Off the CFB Title Board
South Carolina sits off the 2026 CFB national title board, priced below Oklahoma's 2.2% fair value as listed SEC contenders soak up the market's probability.
CFB Model Explained: Power Ratings to Fair Value
How the CFB model converts power ratings into fair value: simulate the season, map results to win probabilities, then strip the vig from market prices.
Oklahoma 2026 Outlook: Futures Value and the Model
Oklahoma 2026 title futures price at 2c on Polymarket against a 2.3% model fair value, leaving the Sooners near the bottom of a crowded SEC contender board.
Why CFB Prediction-Market Prices Move
Prediction-market prices move on three forces: liquidity, news and model fair value. Here is how each pushes CFB title contracts and where gaps open up.
Boise State 2026 Futures: Off the CFB Title Board
Boise State 2026 futures do not appear on the tracked CFB national title board; the cheapest quoted contract is Oklahoma at 2c, and the Broncos sit below it.
Longshot CFB Contracts: Where Price Beats Fair Value
Longshot CFB title contracts where the best Polymarket price sits at or below the model's fair value: Georgia, LSU, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma.
Arizona State 2026 Outlook: Futures and Model Value
Arizona State 2026 futures: the Sun Devils sit off the tracked CFB national title board, where the cheapest listed contracts start at 2c on Polymarket.
ProphetX Exchange vs Sportsbook: Key Differences
ProphetX is a peer-to-peer sports prediction exchange where traders set prices and pay commission, unlike a sportsbook that sets the line and builds in vig.
Utah 2026 Outlook: Title and Conference Odds
Utah does not register on the CFB national title board for 2026, where the shortest longshot, Oklahoma, sits at 2.1%. The model reads Utah below that floor.
CFB Prediction Markets: Legality and Venue Basics
Are prediction markets legal for college football? Here is what traders should know about event-contract venues, access, and how legal structure shapes CFB title prices.
Auburn 2026 Futures: Off the CFB Title Board
Auburn's 2026 title futures do not price on the national board, leaving the model below the SEC's priced tier led by Texas, Georgia and LSU. Here is where value sits.
CFB Playoff Value: Contenders the Market Underprices
Miami is the underpriced CFB playoff contender in prediction markets, trading 5c against a 6.9% model fair value. Here is where best price trails fair value.
Florida State 2026 Futures: Where the Model Stands
Florida State carries no 2026 national title price on Kalshi or Polymarket. Here is where the model puts the Seminoles and the ACC's only priced contender.
Conference-Title Markets: Where the Model Sees Value
Conference-title value in CFB prediction markets clusters in the Big Ten, where Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana hold the deepest block of national title equity.
Washington 2026 Futures: Below the CFB Title Board
Washington sits below the tracked CFB national title board for 2026, with no contract priced above Oklahoma's 2c floor. Here is where the model stands.
Win-Total Value: The CFB Teams the Model Sees Mispriced
Win-total value in college football markets points to Miami as the model's clearest mispricing, with Georgia and Texas cheap and Oregon and Indiana priced rich.
SMU 2026 Futures: Off the CFB Title Board
SMU 2026 futures carry no listed national title contract on the current board, where the model leaves the Mustangs below a priced field that bottoms out at 3c.
Florida 2026 Outlook: Title Futures and Model Value
Florida does not appear on the 2026 national title board. The model puts the Gators below the market's 2% cutoff, and this is where the futures value sits.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Better College Football Prices
Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football: on the current title board Kalshi carries the deepest coverage, with Notre Dame at 13c leading the consensus.
Missouri 2026 Futures: Off the CFB Title Board
Missouri 2026 futures value: the model leaves the Tigers off the national title board, with priced SEC contenders led by Georgia and LSU carrying the market's chalk.
Heisman Edges: Where Model and Market Disagree
The tracked board prices national title, not Heisman directly, so the sharpest award read-through sits with Notre Dame, Texas, Oregon and Miami on Kalshi.
Kansas State 2026 Futures: Off the CFB Title Board
Kansas State 2026 futures sit off the Kalshi national-title board, where the cheapest priced contenders hold at 2 percent; the model reads the Wildcats below that.
Where the CFB Title Model Fades the Market Now
The college football national-title market prices four co-favorites at 11c on Kalshi. The model fades that top tier hardest, flagging a 2.5-point premium each.
South Carolina 2026 Futures: Title Odds and Model Value
South Carolina 2026 futures sit off the CFB national title board, priced below the 2% cheapest listed contract. Here is where the model and market stand.
Power Ratings to Fair Value: Inside the CFB Model
How the college football model converts power ratings into fair value: a simulation-to-probability pipeline, a de-vigged market consensus, and the price gaps it flags.
Oklahoma 2026 Futures: Title Odds and Model Value
Oklahoma's 2026 national title futures price at 2% fair value, 3c on Kalshi. The model view, SEC tier context and where the number really sits, broken down.
Why Prediction-Market Prices Move: The Model's View
Prediction-market prices move on three forces: liquidity, news and the model's fair value. Here is how each pushes CFB title contracts, with the 2026 board as proof.
USC 2026 Futures: Off the CFB Title Board
USC 2026 title futures do not appear on the priced board, where the shortest names sit at 8.5% fair value. Here is where the model stands on the Trojans.
Longshot CFB Title Contracts: Reading the Vig
The model fades the CFB longshot tier: LSU, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Ole Miss all price above fair value, with the overround widening as the board gets cheaper.
Texas A&M 2026 Futures: Title Value and Model View
Texas A&M 2026 title futures price at 4c on Kalshi against a 2.8% model fair value, placing the Aggies mid-pack in a crowded SEC title picture.
ProphetX Explained: How a Sports Exchange Works
ProphetX is a peer-to-peer sports prediction exchange where traders match orders and the platform earns commission, not a sportsbook that sets the line.
Ole Miss 2026 Futures: Title Odds and Model Value
Ole Miss 2026 title futures price at 2% fair value and 3c on Kalshi, parking the Rebels at the bottom of the tracked national title board. Here is the model view.
Are Prediction Markets Legal for CFB? Trader's Guide
Whether prediction markets are legal for college football depends on the venue and the trader's jurisdiction. Here is what CFB traders should confirm.
Indiana 2026 Futures: Title Odds and Model Value
Indiana's 2026 national title fair value sits at 6.8% with a best price of 9c on Kalshi. Here is where the model stands on the Hoosiers' futures value.
Make-the-Playoff Markets: Underpriced Contenders
Make-the-playoff value in CFB markets clusters around Ohio State and Indiana at 6.8% title fair value, with Georgia and LSU the mid-board names to track.
Miami 2026 Futures: Title Value and Model View
Miami's 2026 title futures sit at a 9.1% model fair value, tied for the top of the board, with a best price of 12c on Kalshi. Here is where the model stands.
Conference-Title Value: Where the Model Points
Conference-title value read through the national-title board: Miami owns the ACC at 9.1%, the Big Ten clusters three deep, and the SEC runs the deepest field.
Tennessee 2026 Futures: Below the CFB Title Board
Tennessee sits below the CFB title board for 2026: the model prices 12 contenders and the Vols miss the cut, with the SEC ladder led by Texas at 8.3%.
Win-Total Value: Where the CFB Model Sees Mispricing
Win-total value in college football markets comes down to price versus fair value. Here is where the model flags mispricing on the 2026 national title board.
Michigan 2026 Outlook: Title Futures and Model View
Michigan sits off the priced 2026 national-title board on Kalshi, with model fair value below the 2% floor. Here is where the market and model stand.
Kalshi vs Polymarket CFB: Which Has Better Prices
Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football: on the current title board, Kalshi prints the best available price on all 12 listed contracts. Here is the read.
Clemson 2026 Futures: Off the Title Board
Clemson's 2026 title futures don't clear the tracked Kalshi board: the Tigers' implied national-title equity sits below the 2% floor of the last listed team.
Heisman Edges: Model vs Market Disagreement
The biggest Heisman edges sit where Kalshi title prices stray furthest from the model's de-vigged fair value, with longshots carrying the widest markup.
Notre Dame 2026 Title Odds: Futures Value and Model
Notre Dame's 2026 national title fair value sits at 8.5%, with a best price of 11c on Kalshi. Here is where the model stands and why no conference odds exist.
Where the CFB Title Model Fades the Market
The model fades Oregon and Notre Dame hardest in the CFB national-title market at 11c on Kalshi, while longshots Oklahoma and Ole Miss carry the steepest premium.
Alabama 2026 Futures: Off the Title Board
Alabama 2026 title futures don't appear on the priced national-title board in this snapshot. Here's where SEC value sits and where the model stands.
How the CFB Model Turns Power Ratings Into Fair Value
A look at how the college football model converts power ratings into title fair value, then maps it to market prices to find the cheapest venue per team.
Penn State 2026 Futures: Title Value and Model View
Penn State 2026 futures sit below the priced title board: the Nittany Lions do not appear on Kalshi's national title market, which tops at Texas (9.1%).
Why Prediction-Market Prices Move: Liquidity & News
Prediction-market prices move on three forces: liquidity, news flow and the model's fair value. Here is how each one reprices college football title contracts.
Oregon 2026 Outlook: Title Futures and Fair Value
Oregon 2026 futures sit third on the national title board at 8.2% fair value, best price 10c on Kalshi. Where the de-vigged model stands on the Ducks.
Dark-Horse CFB Title Value: Longshots With Model Edges
Dark-horse college football title value: the model rates Indiana, Miami and LSU above their longshot price status, with every contract priced on Kalshi.
Texas 2026 Futures: Title Odds and Model Value
Texas tops the 2026 national title board at 9.3% fair value, but the best price of 12c on Kalshi sits above the model, leaving no edge for buyers today.
ProphetX Explained: Exchange vs Sportsbook
ProphetX is a peer-to-peer sports prediction exchange where traders set prices against each other, not a sportsbook setting a margin. Here is how the model differs.
Are Prediction Markets Legal for College Football?
Whether prediction markets are legal for college football depends on the platform and jurisdiction. Here is what CFB traders should know about Kalshi, Polymarket and ProphetX.
Ohio State 2026 Title Odds: Where the Model Stands
Ohio State 2026 national title odds carry a 9.7% model fair value, with the cheapest contract at 9c on Kalshi. Here is where the model sees the line.
Underpriced Playoff Contenders in CFB Markets
Florida leads the underpriced playoff contenders, trading at 2c on Kalshi versus a 10.1% model fair value. Here is where CFB market prices lag the model.
Nebraska 2026 Futures: Title Odds and Model View
Nebraska 2026 futures sit off the priced national title board, with the model placing the Cornhuskers below the 2.8% floor held by the cheapest listed contender.
Conference-title markets: Florida leads model value
Conference-title markets, read through national-title prices: the model flags Florida at 2c on Kalshi as the standout value, with a crowded SEC behind it.
Nebraska 2026 Futures Outlook: Below the Title Board
Nebraska does not appear in the priced 2026 national title market. Here is where the model's fair value floor sits and what the Huskers would need to get listed.
CFB conference markets: where the model sees value
Conference-title markets read off the national board, and the model flags Florida at 2c on Kalshi and Indiana at 5c on Polymarket as the clearest value.
CFB title odds: where our model fades the market
Our model and the market disagree most on a handful of national-title contenders. Here are the biggest gaps on Kalshi and Polymarket right now, and why.
Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football futures
Both list college football futures, but fees, funding and contract selection differ. Here is how Kalshi and Polymarket compare for CFB traders.
How CFB futures prices map to probability
A 32-cent contract implies a 32% chance. Here is how to read college football prediction-market prices as probabilities, and where it breaks down.