From the model desk
Where our college football model and the market disagree, how the platforms compare, and the basics of trading prediction markets.
Georgia 2026 Futures: Title Favorite at 21.8% Fair
Georgia 2026 futures lead the national-title board at 21.8% fair value, with the best price 23c on Kalshi. Here is the model read and the SEC field.
How the CFB Model Turns Ratings Into Fair Value
A look at how the college football model converts power ratings into title fair value, then reconciles that number against de-vigged market prices across venues.
Ohio State 2026 Futures: Title Price and Model Read
Ohio State's 2026 national-title futures price sits at 5c on Kalshi against a 5.2% model fair value, one of the most efficiently priced contracts on the board.
Prediction Prices Move: Diagnosing Each Driver
Prediction-market prices move on three forces: liquidity, news and the model's view. Here is how to tell which driver is behind a CFB title price shift.
Miami at Notre Dame: Model's 57% ND Trade, Week 10
Miami at Notre Dame on November 7: the model gives Notre Dame a 57% win probability. See how prediction markets price the title board on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Dark-Horse CFB Value: The Longshot Tier Mostly Overpays
The dark-horse CFB title tier mostly overpays. Ohio State is the only longshot trading at or below model fair value; Ole Miss and Utah run richest.
North Dakota State 2026: No Title or Conference Price
North Dakota State carries no 2026 title, Heisman, or conference price on Kalshi or Polymarket, and the model keeps the FCS power off its FBS board.
ProphetX: How an Exchange Differs From a Sportsbook
ProphetX is a peer-to-peer prediction exchange, not a sportsbook: traders set the prices and pay commission, not vig. Here is how that reshapes CFB pricing.
Nebraska 2026 Futures: No Title Price, Model Read
Nebraska 2026 futures carry no national-title price on Kalshi or Polymarket, leaving the model nothing to fade. Here is where Nebraska sits versus the board.
CFB Prediction Markets: What the Law Actually Says
College football prediction markets trade as regulated event contracts on Kalshi, Polymarket and ProphetX, with legality and access varying by state and venue.
Notre Dame 57%: Trading Miami at Notre Dame, Wk 10
Miami at Notre Dame kicks off Saturday, November 7. The model gives Notre Dame a 57% win probability, and here is how the prediction markets price the game.
Make-the-Playoff Markets: Ohio State Screens Cheap
Make-the-playoff value reads off the title board, and Ohio State at 5c is the only contender trading below the model's 5.1% fair value right now.
Arizona State 2026 Futures: No Title Price, Big 12 Read
Arizona State sits off the 2026 national title board, with no priced contract on Kalshi or Polymarket. Here is where the model places the Sun Devils in the Big 12.
Conference-Title Markets: Reading Value by League
Conference-title markets read through the model: Ohio State, Indiana and Florida trade at or below fair value, while Georgia, LSU and Miami carry a price premium.
Utah 2026 Futures: Title Value and Model Read
Utah 2026 futures carry a 1.1% national-title fair value and a best price of 2c on Kalshi, leaving the market priced just over the model's number.
Mispriced CFB Teams: The Model's Win-Total Read
Win-total value starts with the title board's overlay: every contract trades above the model's fair value, with Alabama tightest at 4c and Ole Miss richest at 5c.
Auburn 2026 Outlook: Futures Value and SEC Read
Auburn 2026 futures carry no national-title price on Kalshi or Polymarket, placing the model's read below Florida's 1.1% fair value, the SEC board's floor.
How to Read CFB Futures Prices as Probabilities
A plain guide to reading college football futures prices as probabilities: what a cent means, why the board sums past 100%, and how fair value gets built.
Ohio State at USC: Trading the Model's 23% USC Read
Ohio State at USC kicks off Saturday, October 31 in week 9. The model gives USC a 23% win probability. Here is how the prediction markets price it and where to trade.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Where Each Wins CFB Prices
Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football: Kalshi holds the best price on eight title contracts, Polymarket owns the SEC mid-tier. Here is the venue split.
Washington 2026: Reading a Blank Title Price
Washington 2026 carries no listed national-title price across Kalshi and Polymarket, and the model reads that blank as a signal the Huskies sit below the priced tier.
Heisman Value: Where Model and Market Split
The Heisman board's biggest edges sit at the longshot end: Utah and Ole Miss trade richest over fair value, while Florida alone undercuts the model's price.
SMU 2026 Futures: Title, ACC Odds, Model Read
SMU carries no 2026 national-title price on Kalshi or Polymarket. Here is where the model stands, why the board is empty, and how Miami anchors the ACC read.
CFB Title Fades: Longshots Run Hottest Over Fair
The model fades Ole Miss, Utah and LSU on the CFB national-title board, the contracts where the cheapest venue still prices above model fair value right now.
Ohio State at USC: Model Gives USC 23% in Week 9
Ohio State at USC (October 31, week 9): the model gives USC a 23% win probability against Ohio State's 77%, plus how to trade the game on Kalshi or Polymarket.
CFB Fair Value: How the Model Prices the Title Board
CFB fair value starts with power ratings, runs them through simulated seasons, converts to a title probability, then de-vigs across venues. Here is the full pipeline.
Missouri 2026: Futures Value and SEC Market Read
Missouri 2026 carries no national-title contract, leaving its futures value in the SEC's second tier. Here is where the market and the model actually stand.
Why Prediction-Market Prices Move: The Three Drivers
Prediction-market prices move on liquidity, news and the model's fair value. Here is how to read a real signal from noise on the current CFB title board.
Kansas State 2026 Futures: Where the Model Stands
Kansas State 2026 futures sit below the tracked national title board, which bottoms at Florida's 1.5% fair value. Here is the Big 12 and model read.
Dark-Horse CFB Value: Which Longshots Carry Edges
No longshot CFB title contract trades under model fair value right now; Indiana at 8c sits closest to fair, while the dark-horse premium runs fattest on Ole Miss.
South Carolina 2026: Futures, Title and SEC Read
South Carolina 2026 outlook: the Gamecocks draw no national-title price, so the model's read runs through an SEC field led by Georgia with Alabama and LSU setting the value tier.
ProphetX Explained: Exchange vs Sportsbook Pricing
ProphetX is a sports prediction exchange, not a sportsbook: it matches traders against each other in an order book with no built-in house margin on the line.
Ole Miss at Texas Week 8: Trading Texas' 65% Edge
Ole Miss at Texas on Saturday, October 24: the model gives Texas a 65% win probability. Here is how the prediction markets price it and where to trade.
Prediction Markets Legal for CFB? What to Know
Prediction markets for college football are legal to trade on CFTC-regulated US venues like Kalshi, with access and venue rules varying by state and platform.
USC 2026 Outlook: Off the Title Board, Big Ten Read
USC does not appear on the 2026 national title board, implying a sub-2% title probability. Here is where the model stands on USC's futures value and Big Ten path.
Make-the-Playoff Markets: 5 Contenders Trading Cheap
Make-the-playoff markets flag Notre Dame, Ohio State, LSU, Alabama and Oregon as underpriced, each trading at or below the model's title fair value.
Texas A&M 2026 Outlook: Futures Value and Model Read
Texas A&M 2026 title futures value: the Aggies sit below the national-title board, under Florida's 1.6% floor, and here is where the model stands.
Conference-Title Markets: Where the Model Sees Value
Conference-title markets read cleanest off the national-title board, and the model flags value in the SEC's second tier: Alabama and LSU at 4c, both near fair.
Ole Miss at Texas: Model Gives Texas 75% in Week 8
Ole Miss at Texas on Saturday, October 24: the model prices Texas at a 75% win probability. Here is how to read the Week 8 market and trade the game.
Win-Total Value: CFB Teams the Model Calls Mispriced
The model's mispricing screen flags Ohio State's 14c on Kalshi as the cheapest major relative to fair value, while Ole Miss trades richest over the line.
Indiana 2026: Title Futures Value and Model Read
Indiana's 2026 national title futures trade 8c best on Polymarket against a model fair value of 7.4%, leaving the price modestly rich with no long-side edge.
CFB Futures to Probability: Stripping Out the Vig
A college football futures price in cents reads like a probability, but it carries vig; strip the overround to read each team's true fair value.
Miami 2026 Outlook: Title Futures, ACC, Model Read
Miami's 2026 national title futures trade at 13c on Kalshi against a model fair value of 12.1%, placing the Hurricanes fourth on the board with little edge left.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: The CFB Price Verdict Is 6-6
Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football prices splits dead even: across 12 national-title contracts, each venue holds the cheapest price on exactly six teams.
Tennessee 2026: Off the Title Board, SEC Model Read
Tennessee 2026 carries no national-title price on Kalshi or Polymarket, and the model reads the Vols below the SEC tier Georgia leads at 17.4%.
Heisman Edges: Georgia Leads, Oklahoma Undercuts
The biggest Heisman edges trace to title equity: Georgia's 20c price sits 2.6 points over the model's 17.4% fair value, while Oklahoma's 1c undercuts it.
Ohio State at Indiana: Trade Indiana's 49% on Kalshi
Ohio State at Indiana: the model gives Indiana a 49% win probability Saturday, a near coin flip, even as national-title futures price the Buckeyes well clear.
CFB Title Fades: Where Price Runs Hottest Over Fair
CFB title fades: every national-title contract trades above the model's fair value, and the sharpest gaps sit with Utah, Ole Miss and the Georgia-led top tier.
Michigan 2026 Outlook: Futures Value and Model Read
Michigan 2026 futures sit off the national-title board on Kalshi and Polymarket; here is where the model's fair value stands and how the Big Ten read breaks down.
How the CFB Model Builds Fair Value From Ratings
The CFB model turns power ratings into title probabilities, then de-vigs venue prices into fair value: Georgia leads the board at 16.8%, best price 19c.
Clemson 2026 Futures: Title, ACC Odds, Model Read
Clemson 2026 futures carry no posted national-title price across tracked venues. Here is where the model stands, what the ACC board implies, and how to read the gap.
Why CFB Prediction Prices Move: Liquidity and News
Prediction-market prices move on three forces: liquidity depth, fresh news, and the model's fair value. Here is how each shifts CFB national-title contracts.
Ohio State at Indiana: Model Gives Indiana 49%
Ohio State at Indiana (Week 7, Oct 17): the model prices Indiana at 49%, a near coin flip in Bloomington, and the prediction markets show where to trade each side.
Longshot CFB Value: Where Title Edges Are Thin
A screen of the longshot college football title tier shows the tail trades tight: Florida is the only name below model fair, and Indiana sits right at it.
Alabama 2026: Title Futures, SEC Odds, Model Read
Alabama's 2026 national title futures carry a 7.4% model fair value against an 8c best price on Polymarket, placing the Tide sixth on the board.
ProphetX: Why an Exchange Prices CFB Differently
ProphetX is a peer-to-peer prediction exchange, not a sportsbook: traders post the prices, a commission replaces the vig, and CFB contracts settle at 0 or 100c.
Penn State 2026: Off the Title Board, Model Read
Penn State carries no 2026 national-title price on Kalshi or Polymarket as of October 10, so the model reads its futures value against priced Big Ten rivals.
CFB Prediction Markets: Are They Legal to Trade?
Are prediction markets legal for college football? Legality depends on the platform and the trader's location, not the sport, as this guide explains.
Oregon 2026: Title Price Sits Above Model Fair
Oregon 2026 title futures trade at 5c on Polymarket against a model fair value of 4%, so the cheapest venue still prices the Ducks above fair.
Make-the-Playoff Markets: Who Trades Underpriced
In the make-the-playoff market read off title prices, no major CFB contender trades below the model; Miami and Alabama carry the thinnest premiums.
Georgia at Alabama: Model Gives Bama 39% in Week 6
Georgia at Alabama (Week 6, October 10): the model gives Alabama a 39% win probability, plus where to trade the game on Kalshi or Polymarket.
Conference-Title Value Map: The Model's League Read
Conference-title value traces back to the national-title board: Georgia and Texas headline the SEC, Ohio State anchors the Big Ten, and Miami stands alone in the ACC.
Georgia 2026: Title Futures, SEC Standing, Model Read
Georgia 2026 futures lead the national-title board at 13.5% fair value, but the cheapest contract sits at 16c. Here is the SEC standing and the model read.
Win-Total Value: Which CFB Teams Trade Over Fair
Win-total value starts with the title board: Alabama trades tightest to the model at 8c on a 7.6% fair value, while Georgia carries the fattest premium.
Ohio State 2026: Title Odds, Big Ten, Model Read
Ohio State's 2026 national title price sits at 14c on Polymarket against a 12.7% model fair value, leaving the Buckeyes priced slightly rich on the board.
Turn CFB Futures Prices Into Probabilities
A CFB futures price in cents is a direct read on probability. Here is how to convert prices to implied odds, strip the vig, and reach a fair value.
North Dakota State 2026: Off Every CFB Title Board
North Dakota State 2026 carries no national-title price on Kalshi or Polymarket. Here is why the FCS power sits off every board and where the model stands.
Heisman Edges: The Model-vs-Market Gap by Program
Heisman edges track where the model and the market most disagree on title equity. Georgia's price sits 2.4 points over fair value, the widest gap on the board.
Nebraska 2026: Futures, Title and Big Ten Odds
Nebraska 2026 outlook: the Cornhuskers carry no national title contract on Kalshi or Polymarket, and the model reads them below the Big Ten's priced tier.
Model Fades the CFB National-Title Market Right Now
Even at the cheapest venue, Georgia, Notre Dame and Texas still trade above the model's fair value in the CFB national-title market right now, so the price fades.
Boise State 2026: Off the Title Board, Model Read
Boise State carries no 2026 national title price on Kalshi or Polymarket. Here is where the model stands, what the tracked board shows, and the tail-tier read.
Inside the CFB Model: Power Ratings to Fair Value
How the college football model turns power ratings into fair value, then de-vigs Kalshi and Polymarket prices to flag where title contracts trade rich.
Ohio State at Iowa: Trade the Model's 24% Iowa Read
Ohio State at Iowa (Saturday, October 3, Week 5): the model gives Iowa a 24% win probability. Here is how the prediction markets frame it on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Why CFB Futures Prices Move: Liquidity, News, Model
Prediction-market prices move on three forces: liquidity, news and the model's fair value. Here is how to tell which one is driving a CFB futures contract.
Utah 2026: Off the Title Board, Big 12 Odds Read
Utah 2026 futures carry no national title price. The model keeps the Utes off the board, where the cheapest priced contender sits at just 1.3%. Big 12 read inside.
Longshot CFB Edges: Where Price Trails Fair Value
Among CFB title longshots, only LSU and Ole Miss trade below model fair value; the rest of the sub-7 percent tier still carries a small vig premium at best price.
Auburn 2026: No Title Price, Where the Model Stands
Auburn 2026 futures sit off the national title board, with the model's title equity below the priced SEC field. Here is where value stands and what the odds say.
ProphetX Explained: Sports Exchange vs Sportsbook
ProphetX is a peer-to-peer sports prediction exchange, not a sportsbook: traders set prices against each other and the platform takes commission, with no house line to beat.
Ohio State at Iowa: Markets Price Iowa 24% Week 5
Ohio State at Iowa, Saturday October 3: the model gives Iowa a 24% win probability, putting Ohio State near 76%. How to read and trade the Week 5 price.
Prediction Markets Legal for CFB? Trader's Guide
Are prediction markets legal for college football? A trader's read on why CFB event contracts trade on regulated exchanges rather than sportsbooks.
Washington 2026: Off the Title Board, Big Ten Read
Washington carries no 2026 national-title contract on Kalshi or Polymarket, and the model reads the Huskies below the priced Big Ten tier led by Ohio State.
Make-the-Playoff Value: Georgia, Florida, USC
Make-the-playoff markets track the title board, and only Georgia, Florida and USC trade at or below model fair value right now, all three priced on Kalshi.
SMU 2026: No Title Price, Where the Model Stands
SMU carries no national title contract on Kalshi or Polymarket in 2026, and the model reads the Mustangs below the priced field, which Texas leads at 13.7%.
Conference-Title Value: Model Flags the Second Tier
Conference-title value sits in the second tier: Indiana and LSU trade below the model's fair value, while Notre Dame's independence leaves no league market to price.
Florida 2026 Futures: Title Price Undercuts Fair Value
Florida 2026 futures: the national title contract trades at 2c on Kalshi against a 2.5% model fair value, a rare board name priced under the model.
Win-Total Value: CFB Contracts the Model Flags
Win-total value comes down to price versus fair value. On the title board, Florida is the lone contract trading below the model's fair value; Ole Miss screens richest.
Oregon at USC: Model Gives USC 49% in Week 4
Oregon at USC on September 26 is a near coin flip: the model gives USC a 49% win probability. Here is how Kalshi and Polymarket price the Week 4 game.
CFB Futures Prices to Probability: A How-To Read
A guide to reading CFB futures prices as probabilities: convert cents to percent, strip out the market margin, and compare best price to fair value.
Kansas State 2026: No Title Price, Big 12 Model Read
Kansas State 2026 futures carry no national title price on Kalshi or Polymarket. Here is where the model stands, the Big 12 read, and the board it must clear.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: The CFB Best-Price Scorecard
Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football prices: Kalshi posts the best price on 8 of 12 national title contracts, but Polymarket owns the tail. Here is the split.
South Carolina 2026: No Title Price, SEC Value Read
South Carolina 2026 futures do not appear on the national title board, sitting below Alabama's 1.7% floor. Here is where the model stands and the SEC read.
Heisman Value Tier: Where Price Undercuts the Model
The biggest Heisman edges sit in the tail: Florida trades at 2c against a 4% model fair value and Alabama at 1c against 1.7%, while Ole Miss reads as the top overpay.
Oklahoma at Georgia: Model Gives Georgia 78% Week 4
The model gives Georgia a 78% win probability over Oklahoma on September 26, and prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket price the Week 4 SEC matchup.
CFB Title Fades: Cheapest Venue Still Over Fair
Even at the cheapest venue, the college football national-title market prices Texas, Ohio State, Ole Miss and Miami above the model's fair value.
USC 2026 Futures: Title Odds and Model's Read
USC 2026 futures price at 1.8% fair value with a best price of 2c on Polymarket, parking the Trojans in the tail of the title board with no model edge.
Power Ratings to Fair Value: The CFB Model Math
How the college football model turns power ratings into fair value: simulate the season, price every title path, then de-vig venue quotes into one consensus.
Oklahoma at Georgia headlines Week 4: trading the September 26 game on Polymarket with code TGSWC
Oklahoma at Georgia is a marquee Week 4 game on the board for Saturday, September 26. Here is how a matchup of two national-title contenders reprices Polymarket's championship market, and how the promo code TGSWC works for it.
Texas at Tennessee headlines Week 4: trading the September 26 game on Kalshi with code FADE
Texas at Tennessee is a marquee Week 4 SEC game on the board for Saturday, September 26. Here is how the game-winner market reads on Kalshi's regulated exchange, and how the promo code FADE works for it.
Texas A&M 2026: Below the Title Board, SEC Read
Texas A&M sits off the priced 2026 national title board, below the 1.7% floor. Here is where SEC futures value lands and where the model stands on the Aggies.
Why Prediction-Market Prices Move: Reading the Signal
Prediction-market prices move on three forces: liquidity, news and model fair value. Here is how to read which one is driving a CFB futures price.
Ole Miss 2026 Outlook: Title Futures, SEC Odds, Model
Ole Miss 2026 title futures sit at 2.6% fair value with a best price of 4c on Kalshi, putting the model on the fade side of a longshot SEC contract.
Dark-Horse CFB Value: Oregon Tops the Longshot Edge
Dark-horse college football value is thin: Oregon and Alabama are the only longshots trading at or below the model's fair value, while Ole Miss screens rich.
LSU at Ole Miss Week 3: Trade the Model's 35% Read
LSU at Ole Miss on Saturday, week 3: the model gives Ole Miss a 35% win probability. How the prediction markets price it and where to trade on Kalshi or Polymarket.
ProphetX Explained: Exchange vs Sportsbook
ProphetX is a peer-to-peer sports exchange, not a sportsbook: traders set the price, a commission replaces the vig, and CFB contracts settle at fair value.
Miami 2026 Outlook: Futures Value and Model Read
Miami's 2026 national title contract trades at 11c on Kalshi against a 9.8% model fair value, leaving the futures price a shade rich for the ACC's lone board team.
Are Prediction Markets Legal for College Football?
Prediction markets are legal for college football in most US states via CFTC-regulated exchanges, distinct from sportsbooks. What traders should check first.
Tennessee 2026: Futures Value, Title and SEC Odds
Tennessee sits off the 2026 national title board, priced below the 1.8% tail. Here is where the futures value, SEC odds and the model stand right now.
Make-the-Playoff Markets: Underpriced Contenders
In make-the-playoff markets read through title equity, Indiana at 7c and Alabama at 2c are the only CFB contenders trading below the model's fair value.
LSU at Ole Miss Week 3: Model Gives Ole Miss 35%
LSU at Ole Miss on Saturday, September 19: the model prices Ole Miss at a 35% win probability, LSU at 65%. Here is how to trade the Week 3 game on Kalshi.
Conference-Title Value: The Model's Read by League
Conference-title value read through the national-title board: Texas leads the SEC at 13.3%, Ohio State a top-heavy Big Ten at 11%, and Indiana screens cheap at 7c.
Michigan 2026 Futures: Title, Big Ten Odds, Model
Michigan 2026 futures sit off the national title board, below Alabama's 1.5% floor. Here is the Big Ten pricing context and where the model stands.
Win-Total Value: LSU, Indiana Screen Below Fair
Win-total value screens on the same divergence logic as the title board, and LSU and Indiana are the college football teams the model flags trading below fair value.
Clemson 2026: Off the Title Board, ACC Value Read
Clemson 2026 sits off the national title board with no listed contract, while ACC rival Miami prices at 10.2% fair value. Here is where the model stands.
CFB Futures Prices: What 12c Really Means
A 12c CFB futures contract implies roughly a 12% chance, but raw prices run hot. Here is how to read futures prices as probabilities and where fair value sits.
Notre Dame 2026: Title Futures, Model Value
Notre Dame tops the 2026 CFB title board at 11.1% fair value, with the best contract at 12c on Kalshi. Here is where the model stands and why there is no conference market.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Has Better CFB Prices
Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football: Polymarket posts the cheapest price on seven of twelve national-title contracts, but Kalshi owns the top of the board.
Oklahoma at Michigan headlines Week 2: trading the September 12 game on Novig with code VAULT
Oklahoma at Michigan is a marquee Week 2 game on the board for Saturday, September 12. Here is how Novig's no-vig sweepstakes college football markets read, and how the promo code VAULT works for it.
Ohio State at Texas: Model Gives Texas 45% Week 2
Ohio State at Texas kicks off Saturday, September 12. The model gives Texas a 45% win probability. Here is how prediction markets price it on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Heisman Edges: Title Equity Flags the Real Gaps
The biggest Heisman edges track the title market: Ohio State's 13c price tops a 10.8% fair value, while Oregon and Notre Dame sit closer to model fair.
Penn State 2026: Title, Big Ten Odds, Model Read
Penn State 2026 futures sit below the tracked CFB title board, under the 2c floor Alabama holds. Here is where the model stands and what would move the price.
CFB Title Fades: Ohio State's 13c Tops Fair Value
The model fades the priciest national-title contracts: Ohio State at 13c against 11% fair value tops the board, while Texas at 7c reads closest to fair.
Oregon 2026 Futures: Title Value, Big Ten, Model
Oregon 2026 futures: the model's fair value sits at 10.3% with a best title price of 11c on Kalshi, the third-shortest number on the board.
Fair Value Mechanics: From Power Ratings to CFB Prices
How the college football model converts power ratings into fair value: a per-game win probability, a full-season simulation, then a de-vigged cross-venue price.
Ohio State at Texas headlines Week 2: trading the September 12 game on Polymarket with code TGSWC
Ohio State at Texas is the marquee Week 2 game on the board for Saturday, September 12. Here is how a matchup of two national-title contenders reprices Polymarket's championship market, and how the promo code TGSWC works for it.
Colorado at Georgia Tech: trading the September 3 Week 1 game on ProphetX with code VAULT
Colorado at Georgia Tech is a Week 1 nonconference game on the board for Thursday, September 3. Here is how the single-game moneyline reads on ProphetX's peer-to-peer exchange, and how the promo code VAULT works for it.
Prediction market promo codes: what four verified codes actually add up to
Aggregator listings advertise a single stacked prediction-market promo total. Here is what our four verified codes, Polymarket TGSWC, Kalshi FADE, ProphetX VAULT and Novig VAULT, really add up to, and the two caveats that keep the number honest.
NC State at Virginia: trading the August 29 Week 1 opener on Kalshi with code FADE
NC State at Virginia is a Week 1 ACC opener on the board for Saturday, August 29. Here is how the single-game market reads on Kalshi's regulated exchange, and how the promo code FADE works for it.
Clemson at LSU headlines Week 1: trading the opener on Polymarket with code TGSWC
Clemson at LSU is the marquee Week 1 game on the board for Saturday, September 5. With kickoff approaching, here is how the result feeds Polymarket's national championship market, and how the promo code TGSWC works for it.
Auburn vs Baylor opens Week 1: trading the neutral-site kickoff on Kalshi with code FADE
Auburn vs Baylor is a neutral-site Week 1 kickoff on the board for Saturday, September 5. Here is how the game reads on Kalshi's regulated exchange, and how the promo code FADE works for it.
North Carolina vs TCU headlines Week 1: trading the opener on ProphetX with code VAULT
North Carolina vs TCU is a neutral-site Week 1 opener on the board. Here is how the game trades on ProphetX's peer-to-peer exchange, and how the promo code VAULT works for it.
The 2026 Heisman race on Kalshi: trading the award market with code FADE
Kalshi lists a 2026 Heisman Trophy winner market that reprices every week of the season. Here is how the award market reads as probability, and how the promo code FADE works for it.
CFB title odds: where our model fades the market
Our model and the market disagree most on a handful of national-title contenders. Here are the biggest gaps on Kalshi and Polymarket right now, and why.
Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football futures
Both list college football futures, but fees, funding and contract selection differ. Here is how Kalshi and Polymarket compare for CFB traders.
How CFB futures prices map to probability
A 32-cent contract implies a 32% chance. Here is how to read college football prediction-market prices as probabilities, and where it breaks down.