About Redshirt Analytics
We build a college football pricing model, publish a fair value for every futures contract, and flag the spots where the market disagrees with us.
- Redshirt Analytics is a model-driven research site for college football prediction markets.
- We price national title, Heisman, win total, make-the-Playoff and conference contracts, then compare our numbers to live market prices.
- We track four venues: Polymarket, Kalshi, ProphetX and Novig.
- Coverage centers on the 2026 CFB season, refreshed as prices and information move.
Model versus market
Most college football coverage tells you who is good. Prediction markets tell you what a team is worth right now, in cents on the dollar. Our job sits in the gap between the two. The Redshirt Analytics model assigns each team a fair value: the probability, expressed as a price, that a given outcome happens. We then line that fair value up against the live price trading on the open market.
When our number and the market number agree, there is nothing to do. When they diverge, that gap is the edge we care about. A contract our model prices at 38 cents that is trading at 27 cents is the kind of mispricing we exist to surface. We do not tell you what to do with it. We show you the math, the inputs and the live price, and let you decide.
What we price
We cover the futures markets that define a college football season. National title odds, Heisman Trophy odds, regular season win totals, make-the-Playoff contracts and conference championship markets all get a model fair value and a live market comparison. Each contract carries our probability, the best available price across venues, and the resulting edge in points.
The four venues
The contracts we track live on four platforms, and prices for the same outcome can differ across them. We watch all four so the comparison is honest.
- Polymarket is a large, liquid prediction market with deep order books on marquee season-long questions, which makes it a strong reference price for title and Playoff markets.
- Kalshi is a US-regulated exchange offering event contracts on college football outcomes, with clear contract rules and settlement.
- ProphetX rounds out the set with peer-to-peer pricing that often moves differently from the other two, which is exactly where cross-venue gaps appear.
Because the same outcome can be priced differently on each platform, we report the best available price, so the edge you see reflects what is actually tradable, not a single venue in isolation.
How we work
Our authors and the modeling desk publish under named bylines, and our methodology, data sources and disclosures live on our editorial standards page. Redshirt Analytics is an independent research and analysis publication. It is informational only and is not financial advice. Markets carry risk, prices move, and outcomes are uncertain.