The model fades the entire national-title board right now: every contract listed trades at or above the model's fair value, so there is no clean outright long on offer. The hardest fades in relative terms sit at the tail, with Utah (2c best price against 1.1% fair) and Ole Miss (4c against 2.6% fair), while the top of the board carries a flatter but steady overround, Georgia, Ohio State and Miami each about 1.6 points rich.
Put simply, the market is asking more than the model thinks each outcome is worth. That is normal for a futures board, where overround and thin tail liquidity push prices above true probability. The question for a trading desk is not whether a fade exists, but where it runs hottest.
What does it mean to fade the title market?
A fade is the mirror image of a value long: the traded price sits above the model's fair value, so the contract is priced richer than its estimated probability. Georgia's fair value is 17.4%, yet the cheapest contract trades at 19c on Kalshi. That 1.6-point gap is the cost baked into the price.
Across a full board those gaps sum into the overround, the structural edge that lets venues and liquidity providers quote both sides. On this title market the overround is present at every line, which is why the model reads the whole board as a fade rather than a shopping list of longs.
The useful signal is relative, not absolute. A 1.6-point gap on a 17% favorite is a smaller percentage markup than a 1-point gap on a 1% longshot, where the price can be nearly double fair value.
Which teams does the model fade hardest?
The sharpest fades sit at the tail. Utah's best price is 2c against a 1.1% fair value, roughly 80% above the model's estimate, the steepest relative markup on the board. Ole Miss follows at 4c against 2.6% fair, a wide gap for a mid-tier SEC contract.
The top tier fades too, just more gently in percentage terms. Georgia (19c vs 17.4%), Ohio State (17c vs 15.4%) and Miami (13c vs 11.4%) each carry about 1.6 points of markup, while Texas runs 9c against 7.7% fair. Alabama (7c vs 6.7%) and Indiana (7c vs 6.6%) sit closest to fair among the contenders.
The pattern is consistent with how tail liquidity behaves: longshots carry the fattest relative premium because quotes round up and depth is thin.
Where does the top of the board stand?
The model's fair value ladder puts Georgia at 17.4% and Ohio State at 15.4%, a clear two-team top tier. Notre Dame (13.1%) and Miami (11.4%) form the next rung, with Texas (7.7%), Alabama (6.7%) and Indiana (6.6%) bunched below.
None of these sit below their traded price, so the top of the board is a uniform fade. The practical read is that paying up for favorites here means paying the overround in full, with no venue currently undercutting fair value on the title line.
That tight structure at the top is where the market and model agree most on ranking, even as the price asks for a premium.
Is any contract close to fair value?
Oregon is the one line near parity: a 1c best price on Polymarket against a 1.1% model fair value. It is effectively the only title contract not clearly fading above the model, a rounding-driven tie rather than an edge.
Venue matters when shopping these prices. Kalshi holds the best quote on the two favorites, Georgia (19c) and Ohio State (17c), and also on Ole Miss (4c) and Utah (2c). Polymarket owns the best price on most of the rest, including Notre Dame, Miami, Texas, Alabama and Oregon. Traders comparing venues can note the Kalshi FADE and Polymarket TGSWC sign-up offers, though neither changes the underlying fair-value math.
The split underlines a familiar pattern: the favorites and a couple of tail names price cheapest on Kalshi, while Polymarket carries the broader field.
How to read these fades
A fade is a flag, not a verdict. It says the price is asking more than the model's probability, which is a reason to demand a better entry, not proof that an outcome will not happen. The model's fair value is an estimate and can be wrong, especially at the tail where small probability shifts move prices sharply.
The cleanest takeaway from this board: there is no title contract trading under fair value, so the edge, if any, lies in waiting for prices to drift back toward the model rather than paying the current premium. This is market analysis, not financial advice, and prices can move on news and liquidity at any time.
