The model sees the clearest conference-title value in the second tier, not at the top of the board. Indiana in the Big Ten (8c against 8.2% fair value) and LSU in the SEC (7c against 7.2%) both trade at or under the model's read, while Notre Dame's 10.9% fair value has no league market to express at all.
One note on method: the provided board prices national-title contracts, not standalone conference championships. Because both draw on the same team strength, national-title fair value grouped by league is the cleanest available proxy for where conference value sits. The figures below are national-title numbers used that way.
Which conferences dominate the national-title board?
The SEC owns the board by count and by weight. Six teams carry a price, led by Texas at 13.7% fair value and Georgia at 10.7%, with LSU, Ole Miss, Florida and Alabama filling out the tail. That depth is why the league's title market prices as a genuine field rather than a two-horse race.
The Big Ten runs top-heavy behind Ohio State at 11.6%, then a steep drop to Indiana (8.2%), Oregon (3%) and USC (1.6%). The ACC's board equity concentrates almost entirely in Miami at 9.6%. Notre Dame's 10.9% would rank third overall, but as an independent it never appears on any conference line.
Read together, the SEC and Big Ten anchor the top, the ACC leans on a single name, and the independent tier sits outside league pricing entirely.
Where does price undercut fair value?
Three names trade at or below the model's fair value. Indiana's best price of 8c sits under an 8.2% fair value, LSU's 7c undercuts 7.2%, and Florida's 2c sits below 2.5%. In each case the market is charging less than the model's estimate of the outcome, which is the definition of a value flag.
Indiana is the standout because it pairs the discount with real board weight: an 8.2% fair value is the highest of any team outside the top five. LSU offers the same shape a tier down, giving the SEC a value entry that is not the market's headline pick. Florida is a longshot read, cheap in absolute terms but flagged on the same price-under-model logic.
Venue matters for capturing that edge. Indiana's 8c sits on Polymarket, while LSU's 7c and Florida's 2c both price best on Kalshi. Traders comparing the two exchanges can note Kalshi FADE and Polymarket TGSWC as standing promotions when deciding where to route.
Why Notre Dame sits outside league pricing
Notre Dame carries the third-highest fair value on the entire board at 10.9%, with a best price of 12c on Kalshi. Yet none of that equity flows into a conference-title market, because the program plays as an independent and has no league championship to win.
For a reader screening conference value, that is a structural gap rather than a mispricing. Notre Dame's only path to expressing its strength in this data is the national-title contract, where the 12c price sits slightly above the 10.9% model line. The conference board simply does not carry the name.
Where the market runs ahead of the model
Not every SEC contender screens cheap. Ole Miss is the clearest overpay: a 7c best price against a 4.9% fair value, the widest gap between price and model among priced SEC teams. The market is asking more than the model thinks the outcome is worth.
Alabama (2c vs 1.8%) and USC (2c vs 1.6%) sit modestly rich as well, and Georgia's 12c prices a touch above its 10.7% fair value. Texas, at 14c against 13.7%, trades close enough to fair that the favorite offers little edge in either direction.
The takeaway for conference-title positioning: the board's brand names are priced efficiently or slightly rich, and the model's value sits one tier down. Prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice, but the screen points to Indiana and LSU rather than the favorites.
