Make-the-playoff value reads off the national title board, and on that screen Ohio State is the only contender trading below the model's fair value: 5c on Kalshi against a 5.1% fair mark. Indiana (8c versus 7.8%) and Alabama (5c versus 4.9%) sit effectively flat to fair, the tightest premiums on the board. The favorites, by contrast, carry the fattest markups.
How do make-the-playoff markets price contenders?
There is no standalone make-the-playoff contract in the current data; a team's playoff path is embedded in its national title equity, so the title board serves as the proxy. A contender that cannot reach the bracket cannot win the title, and the price of title equity moves with the perceived odds of getting there.
The model builds de-vigged fair value by stripping the overround out of title prices across Polymarket and Kalshi. Comparing the best available price to that fair value shows the premium a buyer pays at entry. When price sits at or under fair value, the contract screens underpriced on the model's read.
Which contenders are underpriced right now?
Ohio State is the single contract trading under fair value: 5c on Kalshi against a 5.1% fair mark. The gap is small, but it is the only negative premium on the board, which puts the cost of entry marginally below the model's estimate.
Indiana and Alabama round out the tight tier. Indiana's 8c sits just over a 7.8% fair value, and Alabama's 5c barely clears a 4.9% mark. Both read as near-flat, meaning the market and the model are close to agreement rather than offering a clear edge.
These are reads, not guarantees. The best price and the fair value are both estimates, and either can be off; a compressed premium only indicates where the entry cost tracks the model.
Where is the premium steepest?
The markup widens at the top of the board. Georgia leads the field at 22c against a 19.9% fair value, a 2.1-point premium, and Miami follows at 16c versus 14.1%, a 1.9-point gap. Buyers of the favorites are paying the most over the model's number.
The pattern is not confined to favorites. Ole Miss, a longshot at 5c, carries a 1.7-point premium over a 3.3% fair value, the widest markup relative to its own price on the board. Notre Dame (14c vs 12.7%) and LSU (9c vs 7.9%) sit in the middle of the premium range.
Where is the cheapest venue to trade these contracts?
Venue matters, because the best price decides the premium paid. Kalshi holds the cheapest entry on Ohio State (5c), Alabama (5c) and Ole Miss (5c), and also posts the top Georgia price at 22c. Kalshi's new-account code FADE applies for traders opening there.
Polymarket leads on the rest of the contender tier: Miami at 16c, Notre Dame at 14c, LSU at 9c, Indiana at 8c and Texas at 7c. Polymarket's code TGSWC covers that side. Pricing the same contract at both venues before entry is what keeps the premium honest.
What would move these prices?
Results are the primary driver. A contender's title equity, and with it its implied playoff standing, reprices on wins, losses and the strength of the path still ahead. Liquidity and fresh news fill in the rest, which is why the cheapest venue can shift week to week.
For now the screen is narrow: Ohio State alone trades under fair value, with Indiana and Alabama flat behind it, while Georgia, Miami and Ole Miss carry the premium the rest of the board is paying.
