Georgia leads the 2026 national-title board. The model's fair value sits at 21.8%, the highest figure of any team priced, and the cheapest contract trades at 23c on Kalshi. That is the headline: Georgia is the market's favorite, and the price carries a small premium over the model's read.
The gap is narrow. A 23c contract implies roughly 23% before the vig is removed, against a de-vigged fair value of 21.8%. The result is a favorite trading about one point rich, which is typical for the top name on any futures board rather than evidence of a real dislocation.
How does Georgia's title price compare to fair value?
The model strips the overround from each venue and builds a consensus probability. For Georgia that lands at 21.8%. Kalshi's 23c is the best available price across the sources tracked (Polymarket and Kalshi), so it is the reference point for anyone pricing the favorite.
The 23c-versus-21.8% spread is the margin the market charges to hold the chalk. It is not a value signal in Georgia's favor, and it is not large enough to flag as a fade. The model's position is close to neutral: the price and the fair value agree on direction and nearly agree on size.
For context on venue, Kalshi carries the best Georgia line here, and its code FADE applies for new accounts. The cheapest-venue read matters more on longer prices, where a one-cent difference is a larger share of the total.
Where does Georgia stand in the SEC market?
On the national-title board, Georgia is the clear SEC leader. Its 21.8% fair value is more than double LSU's 9.1%, with Texas at 6.5%, Alabama at 4.8% and Ole Miss at 3.3% filling out the league's priced tier.
That spread frames the conference picture even without a dedicated league line. The model treats Georgia as the SEC's most probable national champion by a wide margin, and the next four SEC names together still trail Georgia's single-team equity.
The chart below maps the SEC field by model fair value, using only the national-title figures on the board.
What about Georgia's conference odds?
The headline asks about conference odds, and the honest answer is that no standalone SEC conference-title price is posted for Georgia on this board. The only Georgia market tracked here is the national title.
Absent a dedicated line, the national-title board is the available proxy. Georgia's position at the top of the SEC tier is consistent with a team the model would favor to reach and win its conference, but that read is inferred from title equity, not a quoted conference contract.
Traders wanting a direct SEC-title position would need a venue that posts one; the figures here do not support quoting a specific conference number, and none is invented.
Where the model stands on Georgia 2026
The model's read on Georgia is straightforward. Fair value of 21.8% makes the Bulldogs the single most likely champion on the board, and the 23c best price on Kalshi is close enough that neither side screens as value.
That is the shape of a priced favorite: the market and the model converge, and the one-point premium is the cost of holding the top name. There is no title fade and no standout edge here, which is itself the finding.
Prices and the model can both be wrong, and this is analysis, not advice. For Georgia specifically, the data points to a favorite fairly priced, with the SEC field trailing well behind.
