The model converts power ratings into fair value in three steps: it rates every team, simulates the full season to turn those ratings into a national title probability, then prints that probability as a fair value in cents. Georgia tops the 2026 board at 14.2%, ahead of Texas at 12.2% and Ohio State at 11.1%. Live venue prices are then de-vigged and compared to that fair value to show where each contract trades rich or cheap.
What goes into a power rating?
A power rating is a single number for each team's strength, built to be comparable across conferences. The rating feeds a game-by-game engine rather than standing on its own, which is what lets a Big Ten schedule and an SEC schedule resolve to the same probability scale.
That cross-conference comparability matters on a board where Georgia (SEC), Texas (SEC), Ohio State (Big Ten) and Notre Dame (Independent) sit within four points of fair value of one another. The rating is the input; the title probability is the output.
How does the model turn a power rating into fair value?
Ratings alone do not price a futures contract. The model runs the remaining schedule, conference races and the playoff bracket thousands of times, counting how often each team finishes as national champion. The share of simulations a team wins becomes its title probability.
That probability is the fair value. Georgia winning 14.2% of simulated seasons prints as a 14.2% fair value, or roughly a fair price of 14c. Miami at 10% maps to about 10c, and Indiana at 6.1% to roughly 6c. The number is a reflection of simulated outcomes, not a target price, and the ratings behind it can be wrong.
Because every path is simulated together, the board stays internally consistent: the title probabilities across the field sum toward 100% rather than drifting, which is the property raw market prices lack.
Why de-vig Kalshi and Polymarket prices?
Raw prices carry a margin, so the implied probabilities across a market add up to more than 100%. Comparing a fair value directly to a raw quote would double-count that cushion, so the model de-vigs each venue first and then takes the best available price per team.
The result is a like-for-like read. Georgia's cheapest title contract is 16c on Polymarket against a 14.2% fair value; Texas is 13c on Kalshi against 12.2%; Ohio State is 12c on Kalshi against 11.1%. Each sits above fair once the margin is stripped out.
Venue choice is part of the edge. Kalshi holds the cheapest price on Texas, Ohio State, Miami and Indiana, while Polymarket owns Georgia and Notre Dame, which is why the best-price column is split across both books. Traders sizing up these contracts can note the Kalshi code FADE and Polymarket code TGSWC when choosing where to execute.
Where does price sit versus fair value now?
Across the current title board, price sits at or above fair value for every contender. That is the normal state for favorites, where the margin and demand keep quotes firm above the model's number.
Miami is the tightest read, priced at 10c against a 10% fair value, essentially level. Texas and Ohio State are within a cent of fair at 13c and 12c. The widest premium among the favorites is Notre Dame, 13c against 10.8%, and Georgia at 16c against 14.2%.
None of these screen as a long edge in the model's framework. When price tops fair, the contract is rich; the read is to fade or pass, not chase.
How to read the gap as a trader
The gap between best price and de-vigged fair value is the whole signal. A price below fair flags a potential long; a price above fair, like the entire title board today, flags a contract trading at a premium to the model.
The discipline is to let the simulation set the number and let the venue scan set the price, then act only when the two diverge in the trader's favor. Prices and the model can both be wrong, so the gap is a starting point for analysis, not advice. For now, the favorites are priced efficiently to rich, and the model's sharpest reads live where a cheaper venue drags a contract back toward or below fair.
