The model fades three national-title contracts right now: Ole Miss, Utah and LSU. On each, the cheapest venue on the board still prices above the model's fair value, which means the cost of entry already exceeds what the ratings say the ticket is worth. Add Indiana and Alabama for marginal overpricing, and every fade the model flags sits at 8c or lower.
The pattern is clean: the fades live at the bottom of the title board, not the top. The leaders trade at or below fair, while the longshot and second tier carry the premium.
Which title contracts does the model fade right now?
A fade is simple arithmetic. Take the model's fair value, compare it to the best available price across Polymarket and Kalshi, and flag the contracts where price still runs over fair even at the cheapest venue.
Ole Miss leads the group. Its best price is 3c on Kalshi against a fair value of 1.9%, roughly 58% above the model. Utah is close behind at 2c versus a 1.2% fair value, the widest relative gap on the board. LSU rounds out the core fades at 7c against 6.4% fair. Indiana (8c vs 7.7%) and Alabama (5c vs 4.7%) are overpriced by thinner margins but still screen on the wrong side of fair.
How hot does price run over fair value?
The longshot tier is where the model and the market disagree most in relative terms. A fraction of a cent matters more when fair value is already low single digits, so a 2c price on a 1.2% line is a far larger overpay than a 15c price on a 15.6% line.
The chart below maps the model's fair value across the fade tier. Read it against the best-price chart that follows: every bar in the fade group carries a price tag that sits above its fair-value bar.
Where the chalk trades honestly
The top of the board is the mirror image. Georgia posts a best price of 15c on Polymarket against a 15.6% fair value, a slight discount. Notre Dame (13c vs 13.3% on Kalshi), Ohio State (12c vs 12.9% on Kalshi), Miami (12c vs 12.8%) and Texas (6c vs 6.3%) all price at or below fair.
That split is the story. The market has the favorites close to right and leaks value into the longshots, where thin liquidity and name recognition push prices above what the ratings support. The best-price chart shows how steep the board is from Georgia down to the 2c tier.
How to read the fades as a trader
A fade is a read on relative value, not a verdict on any team's season. It flags that the contract is expensive against the model, which is the case against holding it, not a call to trade the other side of a futures market that can stay rich for weeks.
Venue still matters even on a fade, because the cheapest price sets the gap. Ole Miss and Notre Dame price best on Kalshi, where code FADE applies; Georgia, Miami, LSU and Texas price best on Polymarket, where code TGSWC applies. The model's edge, when it exists, lives at the leaders' end of the board, not in the longshot premium.
Prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice. The read is only as good as the ratings behind it, and the title board will reprice as results land.
