The single largest national-title edge in our model right now is a top-four contender trading several cents below its fair value on at least one venue. That gap, not the favorite's price, is where the model sees the most value.
Early-summer futures are thin, so a few large orders can move a contract more than any news would justify. We treat these edges as signals to watch, not green lights.
Why the model disagrees with the market
Our fair value is driven by a composite power rating for each team, then shaped by schedule and conference path. When the market leans on recency or brand, the model's view can diverge.
The most actionable disagreements are the ones that persist across both Kalshi and Polymarket, because a one-venue gap is often just local liquidity.
