LSU and Indiana are the teams the model flags as most clearly mispriced to the cheap side. LSU's national-title contract trades at 9c on Kalshi against a model fair value of 10.3%, and Indiana trades at 5c on Polymarket against a 6.8% fair value. Both sit below the de-vigged consensus, the signature of a contract the market is pricing under the model's read.
How the model flags a mispriced team
The screen is mechanical. The model builds a de-vigged consensus fair value from Kalshi and Polymarket prices, then compares it to the single best price available across venues. When the best price sits below fair value, the contract is cheap relative to the model. When it sits above, it is rich.
The national-title board is the reference point here because it is the most liquid and most continuously priced CFB futures market. Its divergences are the cleanest available signal of where the model and the market disagree, which makes it the natural starting point for any win-total value read as well.
The same divergence logic transfers to season win-total markets: a team the title board prices under fair value is a team the model rates higher than the market, and that gap tends to show up wherever the same roster is priced.
Where value sits: LSU and Indiana below fair
Four contracts currently trade at or below model fair value. LSU is the widest in raw terms, with a 10.3% fair value against a 9c best price on Kalshi. Indiana is the widest in proportional terms, a 6.8% fair value against a 5c best price on Polymarket.
Alabama and Oregon round out the cheap side by a hair. Alabama's 1c price on Polymarket sits just under its 1.5% fair value, and Oregon's 2c on Polymarket edges under a 2.3% fair value. These are thinner gaps and belong to the longshot tier, where a single cent is a large share of the price.
LSU trades on Kalshi under code FADE and Indiana on Polymarket under code TGSWC for new accounts.
The rich side: Texas and Notre Dame trade over fair
The opposite signal is just as clear. Texas leads the board at 14.4% fair value but trades at 15c on Kalshi, above the model. Notre Dame (11.9% fair, 13c), Ohio State (11.5% fair, 12c) and Miami (10.7% fair, 11c) all carry a best price above their fair value.
For a value screen, these are the contracts to pass on rather than back. A price above fair value means the market is charging a premium over the model's read, the reverse of the LSU and Indiana setups.
Reading this for win-total markets
Title equity is a proxy, not a settlement. Win-total contracts pay on regular-season game counts, so each line should be judged against its own number rather than a championship price. What the title board provides is direction: the teams the model rates above the market on the biggest, most liquid market.
On that read, LSU and Indiana are the names carrying a model edge, with Alabama and Oregon as marginal longshot cases. Texas and the rest of the top tier screen rich. Prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice; the value simply sits where the traded price falls below the model's fair value.
