Value on any futures board reduces to one comparison: the cheapest available price against the model's fair value. Run that screen across the national title market and one contract stands apart. Florida is the only team whose best price, 2c on Kalshi, sits below the model's fair value of 2.5%. Every other contract clears at or above the line, and Ole Miss trades the richest of all at 6c against a 4.2% fair value.
How the model flags a mispriced contract
The method is mechanical. The model builds a de-vigged consensus fair value from prices across Kalshi and Polymarket, then compares it to the single cheapest contract available at any venue. When the best price undercuts fair value, the market is offering the outcome for less than the model's estimate of its probability. When the best price sits above fair value, the market is charging a premium.
The same screen drives win-total reads: line up the cheapest contract against the model's number and the sign of the gap tells the story. On the current title board, the gaps are narrow at the top and widen through the tail, which is where the clearest reads live.
Nothing here is a directive, and the model can be wrong. Prices move on liquidity and news, and a 2c contract carries a wide confidence band. The screen simply ranks where price and model disagree.
Which CFB team screens cheapest right now?
Florida. The best available price is 2c on Kalshi, and the model's fair value is 2.5%. That is the only spot on the title board where the cheapest contract trades below the model, making Florida the board's lone discount rather than a premium.
The margin is small in absolute terms, but the direction is what the screen cares about. Across a twelve-team board where prices consistently round up over fair value, a contract printing under the model stands out. Traders working the Kalshi book can note the code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500) when comparing venues.
LSU is the other reference point at the fair line: a 5c best price on Polymarket against a 5% fair value, a rare exact match. Everything else on the board asks for a premium.
Where price sits richest above fair value
Ole Miss is the model's hardest fade. The cheapest contract is 6c on Kalshi while fair value sits at 4.2%, the widest premium on the board. That is the mirror image of Florida: the market is pricing the outcome well above the model's read.
Higher up, the favorites tell a subtler story. Texas leads at 13.1% fair value but its cheapest contract, 14c on Polymarket, already tops the model. Georgia (10.9% fair, 12c best on Polymarket) and Notre Dame (11.1% fair, 12c best on Kalshi) carry similar premiums. A large fair value does not equal value when the price has moved past it.
The pattern across the board is a market that rounds up. Ohio State (11.8% fair, 12c), Miami (9.8% fair, 10c) and Indiana (8.7% fair, 9c) all clear just over the model, leaving Florida as the only exception.
Fair value versus best price across the tail
The tail is where the screen separates cheap from rich. Charting fair value against the cheapest contract shows Florida's price sitting under its model number while Ole Miss and Oregon carry the widest premiums in the group.
Read the two figures side by side rather than in isolation. USC (1.7% fair, 2c) and Alabama (2.8% fair, 3c) hold small premiums typical of longshots, where the minimum tradable increment alone can push price over the model.
The cheapest contract at each venue
Best price is the number that turns a fair-value gap into a real read. For the same tail teams, the cheapest contract runs from Florida and USC at 2c up to Ole Miss at 6c. Against the fair values above, only Florida's price lands below its model number.
That single crossover is the whole point of the screen: on a board that otherwise charges a premium, one contract trades at a discount to the model, and one, Ole Miss, trades furthest beyond it.
