The model fades eight national-title contracts right now: Texas, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Miami, Ole Miss, LSU, Alabama and USC each trade above the model's fair value even at their cheapest listed venue. The widest gap belongs to Ole Miss, priced 7c on Kalshi against a 5% fair value.
The point of pricing the fade off the best available number is to strip out one common objection. A contract can look rich simply because a trader is staring at the expensive venue. Here the comparison already uses the cheapest of Kalshi and Polymarket, so when the price still tops the de-vigged consensus, the contract is rich on its own merits, not on venue selection.
Which title contracts trade above fair value?
A fade, in this framework, is any contract whose best cross-venue price sits above the model's fair value. Six names cluster near the top of the board: Texas at 14c on Polymarket (12.5% fair value), Ohio State at 12c on Kalshi (11.2%), Notre Dame at 12c on Kalshi (11.2%), Miami at 11c on Kalshi (10%), Ole Miss at 7c on Kalshi (5%) and LSU at 4c on Polymarket (3.2%).
The tail carries the same signal in smaller units. Alabama prices 2c on Polymarket against a 1.8% fair value, and USC prices 2c on Polymarket against 1.6%. The absolute overpricing is a fraction of a cent, but the direction matches the favorites: the market's floor sits above the model's read.
The two charts below line up the same tier by best price and by fair value. Read them together and the pattern is consistent: every bar in the price chart clears its counterpart in the fair-value chart.
Why Ole Miss is the widest fade on the board
Ole Miss is the standout. The best price is 7c on Kalshi while the model's fair value is 5%, a two-cent premium that is the largest absolute gap among the fade candidates. On a five-cent base, that is a rich contract by any measure the desk uses.
The chart below pairs the same six names by fair value. Set it beside the price chart and Ole Miss is the clearest divergence: 7c of price against a 5% probability read. Nothing about that requires a view on the roster; it is a statement about where the price has settled relative to the model.
Prices and the model can both be wrong, and this is not financial advice. But when the cheapest venue prints a two-cent markup over fair value, the contract earns its place at the front of the fade list.
The favorite tier: Texas and Ohio State priced rich
Among the favorites, Texas is the richest contract on the board at 14c on Polymarket against a 12.5% fair value, a 1.5-cent premium. Ohio State follows at 12c on Kalshi over an 11.2% fair value, with Notre Dame carrying the identical 12c price and 11.2% read.
The contrast that sharpens the fade is Georgia. It carries the highest fair value in the field at 13.1%, yet its best price is 12c on Kalshi, below the model. That makes Georgia the counter-example to the Texas and Ohio State prints: the same tier of the market, but the price sits under fair value rather than over it.
The read is not that these are weak teams. It is that the market has attached a premium to the most heavily traded favorites, while the one contract the model rates highest is the one trading at a discount.
How to read a fade when best price already shops venues
The venue split matters because it decides where a trader would even find the best price. Kalshi holds the cheapest number on the favorites and mid-board (Ohio State, Notre Dame, Miami, Ole Miss), while Polymarket owns the tail and the top line, from Texas at 14c down to LSU, Alabama and USC. Codes such as Kalshi FADE (trade $25, get up to $500) and Polymarket TGSWC (deposit $20, get a $50 trading bonus) sit on those same venues.
The takeaway is narrow and worth stating plainly: eight title contracts price above the model even after shopping both venues, and Ole Miss is the widest of them at 7c versus 5%. Georgia is the lone favorite trading under fair value. Prices move, the model can miss, and none of this is advice; it is where the model fades the market as of this snapshot.
