The model's tightest read on the national-title board is Alabama: 8c against a 7.6% fair value, a premium of under half a percentage point. That is the closest any listed contract trades to the model's number, which makes it the clearest value marker on a board where everything prices above fair.
The same premium-to-fair screen that ranks title contracts drives the win-total read: take the cheapest price, set it against the model's fair value, and sort by the gap. On the current board, no team trades at a discount, so the exercise is about which premium is thinnest, not which contract is free money.
Which CFB teams trade closest to the model's fair value?
Alabama leads the value tier. At 8c on Polymarket against a 7.6% fair value, the premium is roughly 0.4 points, the smallest on the board. Miami follows: 11c on Kalshi versus a 9.9% fair value, a gap of 1.1 points. Indiana at 8c against 6.8% fair and Ole Miss at 3c against 1.8% fair both sit near 1.2 points of premium.
The two co-favorites behind Georgia also price efficiently. Ohio State trades 14c on Polymarket against a 12.7% fair value, a 1.3-point premium, and Texas trades 14c on Kalshi against 12.6% fair, a 1.4-point gap. For the top of the board, those are narrow margins.
LSU (5c on 4.2% fair) and Florida (3c on 2.2% fair) round out the tighter tail reads at roughly 0.8 points of premium each, keeping the longshot tier closer to the model than the headline favorites.
Where is the premium fattest?
Georgia carries the widest gap on the board. The cheapest contract is 16c on Polymarket against a 13.5% fair value, a premium of 2.5 points. The model still rates the Bulldogs the top team, but the price demands the steepest markup to hold the position.
Notre Dame is the other fade flag: 12c on Polymarket against a 9.9% fair value, a 2.1-point premium. Oregon's 5c on a 4% fair value adds a full point of premium in the dark-horse tier. Those are the contracts where price leans hardest past the model.
The model's title-board value read
Fair value is the model's estimate; the cheapest price is what the market will actually fill. Ranking the gap between them is the fastest way to separate the value tier from the fade tier.
Alabama's sub-half-point premium anchors the value side, with Miami, Indiana and the two co-favorites close behind. Georgia and Notre Dame anchor the fade side.
Where are these contracts cheapest to trade?
Venue matters because the premium is measured off the best available price. Polymarket holds the cheapest number on eight of the twelve listed contracts, including Alabama, Indiana, LSU, Oregon and Georgia. Kalshi leads on Texas, Miami and Ole Miss. Traders sourcing the Alabama value should note it sits on Polymarket, where code TGSWC applies; the Kalshi-led names carry code FADE.
The split tracks a familiar pattern: Polymarket tends to post the sharper tail and mid-board prices while Kalshi stays competitive on a handful of favorites. Confirming which venue holds the best price before sizing a contract is the difference between a thin premium and a needless one.
Prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice. The read is simply where the cheapest contract sits relative to the model: Alabama tightest, Georgia and Notre Dame widest.
