Across the priced board, the model sees value in a short list of league favorites: Ohio State at 5c against a 5.2% fair value, Indiana at 7c against 7.1%, and Florida at 1c against 1.1%. Every other headline name trades at a premium to the model, with Georgia, LSU, Miami and Ole Miss all pricing above fair.
A note on framing: the market prices the national title, not standalone conference contracts. Conference strength is read here through national-title fair value, which captures where each program stands inside its league. The value signal is simple: where best price sits below the model's fair value, the contract is cheap; where it sits above, the market is paying up.
Where does SEC conference-title value sit?
The SEC owns the most priced names, and the model's read splits them cleanly. Georgia leads the league at a 19.8% fair value but trades 22c on Polymarket, the steepest premium on the board. LSU carries a similar tax at 8c on Polymarket over a 6.9% fair value.
The middle of the league prices closer to fair. Texas sits at 7c on Polymarket against 6.6%, and Alabama trades 5c on Kalshi against a 5% fair value, both within a point of the model. Ole Miss runs hot at 4c on Kalshi over a 2.6% fair value.
The one SEC name priced below the model is Florida, at 1c on Polymarket against 1.1%. It is a deep longshot, but it is the only league team the model reads as cheap rather than taxed. For traders sizing small positions, Polymarket's TGSWC promo (deposit $20, get a $50 trading bonus) applies to that venue.
Which Big Ten teams trade cheapest vs fair?
The Big Ten supplies the model's two cleanest value reads among contenders. Indiana trades 7c on Polymarket against a 7.1% fair value, effectively a fair price for a team the model keeps in the second tier. Ohio State is the sharper signal: 5c on Kalshi against a 5.2% fair value, a favorite priced at a modest discount.
That combination is unusual. League favorites normally carry a premium because the market crowds the names it knows, yet Ohio State sits below fair here. Kalshi is the cheapest venue for that contract, and the FADE promo (trade $25, get up to $500) applies there.
What about the ACC, Notre Dame and the Big 12?
Outside the two deepest leagues, the model reads premiums. Miami anchors the ACC at a 15.5% fair value but trades 16c on Kalshi, a small markup. Notre Dame, independent and unattached to a conference race, prices 14c on Polymarket over a 12.9% fair value.
Utah represents the Big 12 on the board at 3c on Kalshi against a 1.9% fair value, a longshot trading well above the model. The pattern holds across these groups: the market pays up for recognizable favorites, and the discounts cluster in the Big Ten and at the bottom of the SEC.
The value map in numbers
The fair-value chart shows the title hierarchy the conference read is built on: Georgia and Miami lead, with a long tail down to Florida. The best-price chart shows where the market sits against those figures. Read side by side, the teams whose price bars undercut their fair-value bars are where the model sees edge.
Prices and the model can both be wrong, and these are national-title figures used as a league lens rather than conference contracts. The takeaway is directional: value sits with Ohio State, Indiana and Florida, while Georgia, LSU, Miami and Ole Miss ask traders to pay above fair.
Best price by team, in cents
The best-price view confirms the read. Ohio State's 5c sits under its 5.2% fair value, Indiana's 7c matches its 7.1%, and Florida's 1c holds under 1.1%. Georgia's 22c and Miami's 16c both clear their fair values, marking the premium tier.
