The model's conference-title value concentrates in the Big Ten, where Ohio State (11.3% fair value), Oregon (10.8%) and Indiana (8.4%) form the deepest block of national title equity on the board. Notre Dame carries the market's top overall price at 12%, but as an independent it plays no conference-title market at all, which reshapes where the league boards point.
Only national title contracts are quoted here, so the read on conference markets runs through that board: for league members, winning the conference is close to a prerequisite for winning the national title, making national title fair value a working floor on conference-title probability.
Which conference has the deepest model value?
The Big Ten. Three teams sit inside the top five of the national title board, and all three route through the same conference-title path. Ohio State prices at 11.3% fair value (11c on Polymarket), Oregon at 10.8% (11c), and Indiana at 8.4% (8c). No other league stacks that much probability into a single championship bracket.
That concentration cuts both ways. A crowded top tier means the conference-title market has to split roughly a third of national title equity among three teams, so the league crown is harder to win than any one team's raw national number suggests. The value read favors the teams whose national price already discounts that traffic, and Indiana at 8c is the cleanest expression of it.
Where does the SEC board stand?
Texas leads the SEC at 9.6% fair value and a best price of 9c on Polymarket, the top league member outside the Big Ten trio. Behind Texas the board thins into a pack: Georgia at 5.7%, LSU at 5.6%, then Texas A&M (3.1%), Alabama (2.3%) and Oklahoma (2.3%).
That shape reads as a wider, flatter conference market than the Big Ten's. Where the Big Ten packs three heavyweights, the SEC spreads its equity across six priced teams, which lifts the implied field and leaves more of the conference-title probability outside the favorites. The model's value there sits with Texas at the top and with the LSU-Georgia coin flip in the second tier, not with the low-single-digit longshots.
What about the ACC and Notre Dame's missing market?
Miami tops the ACC read at 6.9% fair value, but it trades at 5c on Polymarket, below its model line. That gap is the clearest single-team value signal on the board: a contract priced under fair value in a conference where no other listed team crowds the top.
Notre Dame is the structural wrinkle. Its 12% fair value leads every team quoted, yet the Fighting Irish play no conference championship, so none of that equity lands in a league-title market. The result is that Notre Dame's probability sits entirely in the playoff and national title lanes, and the conference boards are effectively contested without the market's nominal favorite.
How to read conference value off the national board
The consensus fair value is built by de-vigging quoted prices across venues, then the cheapest venue to trade each team is surfaced. On the current board that venue is Polymarket for every listed contender, from Ohio State at 11c to Alabama and Oklahoma at 2c.
The practical takeaway: the Big Ten holds the most concentrated title equity, the SEC spreads its value across a deeper pack led by Texas, and Miami's 5c price is the standout discount to model on a conference favorite. Prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice; the figures describe where the market and the fair value diverge, not what happens on the field.
