The model's cleanest read on conference-title value comes off the national-title board, and this season it points to the SEC's second tier. Alabama (4c against a 4.1% fair value on Polymarket) and LSU (4c against 4.0% on Kalshi) are the only serious contenders whose cheapest price does not overshoot the model. Everything ranked above them, Georgia included, trades at or above fair.
That is the whole verdict in one line: the top of the board is priced efficiently or rich, so the thin edges live a tier down. The sections below break the read out by league and explain why the national-title market, not scattered conference contracts, is the honest source for this call.
How does a national-title board read as conference-title value?
Conference-title contracts are thin and scattered across venues, so the de-vigged national-title board is the signal the model leans on. A team's national-title fair value already bundles its probability of winning its conference, which means reading down the board by league ranks the favorites without inventing conference-specific odds.
Grouped that way, four programs separate from the field. Georgia, Miami, Ohio State and Notre Dame all sit between 13% and 15.7% fair value, with Indiana the clear next name at 6.8%. Three of those four carry a league flag; one does not, which reshapes how the conference races should be read.
Where does the SEC title market offer value?
Georgia leads the SEC at 15.7% fair value, but its best price is 16c on Polymarket, a slight premium over the model. The league's defining feature is dispersion: six listed contenders spread the probability out rather than concentrating it behind one name.
The value, such as it is, sits just below Georgia. Alabama at 4.1% fair prices to 4c on Polymarket, trading under the model, and LSU at 4.0% is right at fair at 4c on Kalshi. The rest carry a premium at the cheapest venue: Texas (3.8% fair, 4c), Florida (1.6%, 2c) and Ole Miss, whose 5c on Kalshi against a 3.5% fair value is the widest overshoot in the group.
Which Big Ten and ACC flag-bearers does the model back?
Ohio State anchors the Big Ten read at 14% fair value with a matching 14c best price on Kalshi, which is as close to fair as the board gets. Indiana is the clear second name at 6.8% fair, priced to 7c on Polymarket, a touch rich. Oregon rounds out the listed Big Ten group at 1.9% fair, 2c on Polymarket.
In the ACC, Miami carries the flag at 14.1% fair value, the second-highest number on the entire board. Its best price, 15c on Polymarket, sits above the model, so the conference-title read there is strong on quality but short on price edge at the cheapest venue.
Why Notre Dame's price doesn't translate to a conference crown
Notre Dame's 13% fair value ranks fourth on the national-title board and trades right at fair at 13c on Kalshi. For conference-title purposes, though, that equity does not apply: the Independent plays no league schedule and cannot win a conference title.
That removes a top-four team from every league race and tightens the conference picture above the favorites. It also means a trader reading conference value off the national board should mentally set Notre Dame aside, since its number reflects playoff and national paths only.
Where should price discipline focus?
The consensus flags value only where the best available price does not exceed fair. Right now that is a short list: Alabama at 4c, LSU at 4c and Notre Dame at 13c, with the Notre Dame line a national signal rather than a conference one.
Venue matters because the cheapest price moves the math. Polymarket holds the best number on Georgia, Miami, Indiana, Alabama, Texas, Oregon and Florida; Kalshi leads on Ohio State, Notre Dame, LSU and Ole Miss. Traders comparing the two can line up Polymarket (code TGSWC) against Kalshi (code FADE) before committing.
The usual caveat holds: both the model and the market can be wrong, fair value is an estimate, and nothing here is financial advice.
