The make-the-playoff read, taken through title-market equity, points to two names trading below the model's fair value: Indiana at 7c on Polymarket against a 7.2% fair value, and Alabama at 2c against 2.4%. Every other listed contender prices at or above the model's number, which leaves those two as the only contracts offering a positive edge at current prices.
How the title market reads make-the-playoff odds
There is no standalone make-the-playoff contract in the figures on the board; the prices here are national title markets from Kalshi and Polymarket. Title equity still maps cleanly onto playoff contention, because the teams the market rates to win the trophy are the same ones it rates to reach the 12-team field. A contract's fair value is the model's read on that probability, and the best price is the cheapest venue to buy it.
When the best price in cents sits below the fair value in percent, the contract costs less than the model's implied chance. That is the screen for underpriced contention: not the biggest number on the board, but the widest gap in the trader's favor.
Which contenders are underpriced?
Indiana is the standout. Its 7c best price on Polymarket sits just under a 7.2% fair value, the only team in the favorite-to-middle tier trading below the model's number. In a board where the top six names all carry a premium, a contract priced beneath fair value is the exception rather than the rule.
Alabama is the second entry, at 2c on Polymarket against a 2.4% fair value. The absolute edge is small, but the direction is the same: the price undercuts the model. Georgia rounds out the group as an at-fair name, with an 11c best price barely above a 10.8% fair value, close enough that the premium is negligible.
The rest of the contention tier trades rich. Miami (11c vs 9.9%), LSU (9c vs 8.3%) and Oregon (4c vs 3.2%) all cost more than the model's read, which caps their value even before liquidity and fees enter the picture.
Where the favorites trade rich
At the top of the board, the premium widens. Texas is the richest favorite at 15c on Kalshi against a 13% fair value, a two-point markup that the model does not support. Notre Dame (13c vs 11.3%) and Ohio State (12c vs 10.9%) follow the same pattern, each priced above the model's implied probability.
The tail tells a similar story. Ole Miss trades at 3c on Kalshi against a 1.8% fair value and USC at 3c against 2.3%, both carrying a longshot premium. The lesson from the full board: paying up for the marquee names or the lottery tickets costs more than the model says the outcome is worth, while the edge quietly sits with Indiana.
Where to trade the underpriced tier
Venue matters, because the best price is not uniform. Polymarket holds the top price on both underpriced names, Indiana at 7c and Alabama at 2c, and owns much of the longshot tail. Kalshi carries the sharper prices across the favorite tier, including Texas, Notre Dame and Ohio State. Splitting orders by team, rather than defaulting to one book, captures the cheapest available contract.
New accounts can access these markets through Polymarket code TGSWC (deposit $20, get a $50 trading bonus) or Kalshi code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500). Prices and the model can both be wrong, and fair value is an estimate rather than a guarantee; the screen simply flags where the price undercuts the number, and today that list starts and largely ends with Indiana.
