The contenders the title board underprices as playoff entrants sit just below the favorites: Ohio State and Indiana, both at 6.8% national-title fair value, then Georgia at 5.2% and LSU at 4.4%. These are the teams the market rates as live enough to threaten a title, which by definition prices them to reach the field, yet cheap enough that a make-the-playoff read finds room. The figures below are national-title fair values on a Kalshi-only board, used here as a proxy for playoff-berth probability rather than direct make-the-playoff contracts.
Why title fair value stands in for make-the-playoff odds
A dedicated make-the-playoff contract is not on the current board, so the cleanest available signal is the de-vigged title price. The logic holds because reaching the 12-team field is a precondition for winning it: any probability the market assigns to a title runs entirely through the playoff. A team priced at a 6.8% title fair value is being credited with a substantial berth probability that the title number only partially reveals.
That relationship compresses at the top and stretches at the bottom. Miami's 9.2% title fair value and the 8.4% cluster of Texas, Oregon and Notre Dame carry berth probabilities close to a coin flip or better, so there is little markdown to exploit. The value question lives one rung down, where title odds fall faster than berth odds do.
Ohio State and Indiana lead the second tier at 6.8%
Ohio State and Indiana are the pivot point. Both price at 6.8% title fair value and 9c on Kalshi, a step below the 8.4% trio and a clear step above Georgia. For a make-the-playoff read, that is the sweet spot: strong enough that a berth is the base case, priced low enough that the title haircut understates the berth probability.
The identical pricing on two structurally different Big Ten programs is itself the tell. The market has bucketed them together at 9c, which is efficient shorthand but leaves no separation for the team with the softer path to the field. That is where a berth-specific view would diverge from the shared title line.
Georgia and LSU anchor the mid-board
Georgia at 5.2% fair value (7c on Kalshi) and LSU at 4.4% (6c) form the next band. Both are SEC programs with the resume history to survive a two-loss season and still reach a 12-team field, a scenario the title price barely accounts for. The 7c and 6c contracts are where the gap between title odds and berth odds is widest.
Below them sits the longshot cluster: Texas A&M at 2.8% (4c), then Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Ole Miss all at 2% (3c). These are priced as title afterthoughts, but the SEC and Big 12 names among them retain a live path to the field. The model does not force a call here; it flags that title pricing this low can undercount berth equity for teams in deep conferences.
Reading the board and its single-venue caveat
The prices in this analysis come from Kalshi alone, so each fair value is de-vigged from one venue rather than blended across Kalshi, Polymarket and ProphetX. A single-source consensus is thinner than a multi-exchange one and more exposed to that book's specific margin, so the fair values should be read as directional rather than settled. Kalshi promo FADE applies for those comparing venues.
The takeaway is narrow and grounded: on the current board, the second tier from Ohio State and Indiana at 6.8% down through LSU at 4.4% is where title pricing most plausibly lags playoff-berth probability. Prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice; it is a read on where the numbers and the structure of a 12-team field disagree.
The mid-board at a glance
The chart below shows title fair value for the second-tier contenders, the band where the make-the-playoff read is most active.
