Editorial standards

Our mission for accuracy

Redshirt Analytics is built on a single promise: the prices we publish should be defensible. We are a model-driven publication, which means our edge claims rest on numbers, not vibes. We hold ourselves to making those numbers checkable and correcting them quickly when they are wrong.

Data sources

Everything we publish draws on two inputs, kept distinct so readers can tell them apart.

• The Redshirt Analytics model. Our quantitative model produces a fair value, expressed as a price in cents, for every college football futures contract we cover: national title, Heisman, win totals, make-the-Playoff and conference markets. This is our opinion of the true probability of an outcome.
• Live market prices. Alongside the model number we show the live price trading on the open market, sourced from the venues we track (Polymarket, Kalshi and ProphetX). Market prices move constantly, so any figure on the site reflects a moment in time and can be stale by the time you read it.

The edge we report is simply the difference between those two numbers. We separate model value from market price on purpose, so it is always clear which figure is our estimate and which is the market talking.

AI-assisted drafting

We use AI tools to help draft and structure parts of our written content. Disclosure matters here, so we say it directly: some copy on this site is AI-assisted. AI does not have the final word. A human editor reviews drafts, checks them against our model and the live market data, and is accountable for what we publish. Our model, our pricing methodology and our editorial judgment are human-owned. AI is a writing aid, not the analyst.

Affiliate disclosure

Redshirt Analytics uses affiliate links and promo codes for the platforms we cover. When a reader signs up or trades through one of our links or codes, we may earn a commission at no extra cost to the reader. That is how we fund the research.

We keep a firewall between revenue and analysis. Affiliate relationships do not decide which contracts we price, what fair value our model assigns, or how we describe a venue. We compare prices across Polymarket, Kalshi and ProphetX on the merits, and we will report a worse offer or a thinner market when that is the truth, affiliate relationship or not.

Authorship and corrections

Our content is published under named bylines from our editorial and modeling teams. If you find an error in a price, a calculation or a claim, we want to fix it. Reach the desk at editorial@redshirtanalytics.com and we will review and correct as needed.

Not financial advice

Redshirt Analytics is informational and educational only. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to take a position in any market. Prediction markets carry risk, prices move, and outcomes are uncertain. Participation may be restricted by your age and location. Always do your own research.