10,000 simulated seasons · updated daily

We simulated the 2026 college football season 10,000 times

Q: How does the 2026 season simulation work?

We play out the full 2026 FBS schedule 10,000 times. Each run draws every team's true-season strength from an SP+-based prior (regressed toward the mean, with preseason uncertainty), simulates every game with a margin model plus home edge, crowns conference champions, selects and seeds a 12-team playoff field, and plays the bracket to a champion. Completed games always use the real result.

Q: Why do the simulation odds differ from market prices?

The model only knows ratings, schedules and results; the market also prices roster changes, injuries and public opinion. The gap between the two is the point: it shows where the model and the market disagree, and by how much.

Q: How often is the simulation updated?

Daily. The simulation re-runs automatically when ratings, schedules or results change, so in season the odds update as games finish.

Q: Can I cite or republish these numbers?

Yes. The dataset is free to cite and reuse (CC BY 4.0): credit Redshirt Analytics and link to this page. There is also an embeddable live odds widget you can drop into any article or site.

Playoff, conference and national title odds for every FBS team, from a full Monte Carlo of the real 2026 schedule, next to what the prediction markets are paying. Ohio State wins the title in 11.8% of runs.

Key takeaways

Ohio State is the model's title favorite at 11.8% (market: 11.2%).
Biggest model-over-market gap: USC, 4.0% in the sims vs 1.6% at the venues.
Biggest market-over-model gap: Texas, priced 12.3% by the market vs 5.6% in the sims.
Simulation last run September 23, 2026; it re-runs daily and after every results sync. Free to cite with a link (CC BY 4.0).

#	Team	Conf	Proj wins	Win conf	Make CFP	Win title	Market title
1	Ohio State	Big Ten	8.3	24.2%	66.1%	11.8%	11.2%
2	Georgia	SEC	9.5	32.9%	72.5%	11.0%	11.6%
3	Notre Dame	Independent	10.2	-	74.8%	9.7%	10.7%
4	Indiana	Big Ten	9.4	20.0%	64.2%	8.0%	8.8%
5	Oregon	Big Ten	8.0	15.1%	46.1%	6.1%	4.3%
6	Miami	ACC	9.7	47.9%	64.0%	5.7%	9.9%
7	Texas	SEC	8.7	14.9%	50.5%	5.6%	12.3%
8	USC	Big Ten	8.6	9.7%	41.3%	4.0%	1.6%
9	Tennessee	SEC	8.4	9.8%	36.0%	2.9%	1.2%
10	Texas Tech	Big 12	9.4	24.7%	41.8%	2.8%	1%
11	Penn State	Big Ten	9.0	11.0%	37.4%	2.8%	1.2%
12	LSU	SEC	7.8	4.4%	30.2%	2.7%	4.4%
13	Alabama	SEC	8.3	8.9%	32.1%	2.4%	1.6%
14	BYU	Big 12	8.6	19.8%	32.6%	1.9%	0.8%
15	Utah	Big 12	8.7	15.4%	30.7%	1.9%	0.8%
16	Iowa	Big Ten	8.3	5.9%	26.3%	1.8%	0.8%
17	Florida	SEC	7.9	7.5%	25.0%	1.8%	4.3%
18	Texas A&M	SEC	7.1	2.1%	19.5%	1.7%	0.8%
19	Oklahoma	SEC	6.6	5.3%	16.0%	1.5%	0.6%
20	Ole Miss	SEC	7.8	4.7%	18.0%	1.1%	4.3%
21	Missouri	SEC	7.5	3.7%	14.9%	1.1%	0.8%
22	Kansas State	Big 12	8.5	11.3%	21.7%	1.0%	0.8%
23	Michigan	Big Ten	7.6	3.0%	15.6%	<1%	0.9%
24	Nebraska	Big Ten	7.5	2.7%	13.4%	<1%	-
25	Virginia Tech	ACC	8.3	8.1%	15.8%	<1%	0.8%
26	Washington	Big Ten	7.3	1.9%	10.2%	<1%	0.8%
27	North Dakota State	Mountain West	10.3	43.8%	37.0%	<1%	-
28	Louisville	ACC	7.8	13.2%	17.2%	<1%	0.8%
29	Mississippi State	SEC	7.5	2.6%	9.9%	<1%	0.8%
30	Pittsburgh	ACC	8.2	6.0%	11.7%	<1%	0.8%
31	SMU	ACC	7.8	5.7%	11.4%	<1%	0.8%
32	South Carolina	SEC	6.2	<1%	6.4%	<1%	0.8%
33	Auburn	SEC	6.4	<1%	4.9%	<1%	0.8%
34	Houston	Big 12	7.1	2.7%	7.8%	<1%	0.8%
35	TCU	Big 12	6.6	5.5%	7.6%	<1%	0.8%
36	Illinois	Big Ten	6.3	1.5%	5.2%	<1%	0.8%
37	James Madison	Sun Belt	9.8	37.9%	20.1%	<1%	0.8%
38	Virginia	ACC	7.4	6.3%	9.1%	<1%	0.8%
39	Boise State	Mountain West	7.4	14.1%	7.6%	<1%	-
40	UCLA	Big Ten	7.5	2.0%	6.6%	<1%	-
41	Duke	ACC	7.9	3.4%	5.9%	<1%	-
42	Arizona	Big 12	6.7	2.0%	5.5%	<1%	0.8%
43	Cincinnati	Big 12	7.1	3.0%	5.3%	<1%	-
44	Oklahoma State	Big 12	6.6	4.1%	5.1%	<1%	0.8%
45	New Mexico	Mountain West	8.2	17.6%	9.6%	<1%	-
46	Memphis	American	8.3	21.5%	8.6%	<1%	-
47	Vanderbilt	SEC	6.8	1.4%	5.2%	<1%	0.8%
48	Clemson	ACC	6.8	3.7%	4.0%	<1%	0.8%
49	Baylor	Big 12	6.2	2.6%	3.3%	<1%	0.8%
50	UCF	Big 12	6.3	2.5%	2.9%	<1%	-
51	Northwestern	Big Ten	6.4	<1%	2.8%	<1%	-
52	Iowa State	Big 12	6.0	2.2%	2.6%	<1%	-
53	Maryland	Big Ten	6.1	<1%	2.4%	<1%	-
54	Wisconsin	Big Ten	6.0	<1%	1.5%	<1%	-
55	Kentucky	SEC	5.7	<1%	1.3%	<1%	0.8%
56	Florida State	ACC	5.3	<1%	1.0%	<1%	0.8%
57	South Florida	American	9.0	19.5%	8.8%	-	-
58	Tulsa	American	8.3	11.3%	4.2%	-	-
59	Liberty	C-USA	8.0	26.9%	3.0%	-	-
60	Western Michigan	MAC	8.0	29.2%	3.0%	-	-
61	UTSA	American	7.3	11.2%	2.9%	-	-
62	Arizona State	Big 12	6.2	2.3%	2.5%	-	0.8%
63	Army	American	6.8	5.9%	2.1%	-	-
64	West Virginia	Big 12	6.7	1.3%	2.0%	-	-
65	Toledo	MAC	7.9	23.1%	1.6%	-	-
66	Jacksonville State	C-USA	7.4	25.8%	1.6%	-	-
67	Fresno State	Mountain West	6.6	4.4%	1.5%	-	-
68	NC State	ACC	6.2	<1%	1.4%	-	-
69	North Carolina	ACC	5.8	<1%	1.2%	-	0.8%
70	Minnesota	Big Ten	5.6	<1%	1.2%	-	-
71	Georgia Tech	ACC	5.0	2.0%	1.2%	-	0.8%
72	Wake Forest	ACC	6.6	<1%	1.1%	-	-
73	UNLV	Mountain West	6.1	7.4%	1.1%	-	-
74	California	ACC	5.9	1.3%	1.1%	-	0.8%
75	Louisiana	Sun Belt	7.5	14.3%	1.0%	-	-
76	Air Force	Mountain West	6.8	2.3%	1.0%	-	-
77	Navy	American	6.2	5.8%	1.0%	-	-
78	Troy	Sun Belt	7.0	12.0%	<1%	-	-
79	East Carolina	American	6.1	6.3%	<1%	-	-
80	Tulane	American	5.7	5.1%	<1%	-	0.8%
81	San Diego State	Mountain West	5.1	3.3%	<1%	-	-
82	Miami (OH)	MAC	6.8	19.2%	<1%	-	0.8%
83	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	6.0	7.7%	<1%	-	-
84	Temple	American	5.6	4.8%	<1%	-	-
85	Michigan State	Big Ten	5.4	<1%	<1%	-	-
86	Kansas	Big 12	4.8	<1%	<1%	-	-
87	Delaware	C-USA	6.7	12.5%	<1%	-	-
88	Florida Atlantic	American	6.7	4.1%	<1%	-	-
89	Marshall	Sun Belt	7.0	3.8%	<1%	-	-
90	Hawai'i	Mountain West	5.7	1.3%	<1%	-	-
91	Colorado State	Mountain West	5.4	1.5%	<1%	-	-
92	Colorado	Big 12	4.9	<1%	<1%	-	-
93	South Alabama	Sun Belt	6.4	3.7%	<1%	-	-
94	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	6.1	9.7%	<1%	-	-
95	Louisiana Tech	C-USA	5.9	8.1%	<1%	-	-
96	North Texas	American	5.8	3.2%	<1%	-	0.8%
97	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	5.5	4.9%	<1%	-	-
98	UConn	Independent	6.5	-	<1%	-	-
99	Ohio	MAC	6.3	8.2%	<1%	-	-
100	Central Michigan	MAC	6.1	5.6%	<1%	-	-
101	Florida International	C-USA	5.7	6.0%	<1%	-	-
102	San José State	Mountain West	5.6	1.0%	<1%	-	-
103	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	5.4	3.5%	<1%	-	-
104	Nevada	Mountain West	4.8	2.0%	<1%	-	-
105	New Mexico State	C-USA	4.8	3.6%	<1%	-	-
106	Boston College	ACC	4.4	<1%	<1%	-	-
107	Syracuse	ACC	4.4	-	<1%	-	-
108	Arkansas	SEC	3.6	-	<1%	-	0.8%
109	Purdue	Big Ten	3.4	-	<1%	-	-
110	Massachusetts	MAC	6.9	2.4%	-	-	-
111	Buffalo	MAC	5.5	4.0%	-	-	-
112	Oregon State	Pac-12	5.4	-	-	-	-
113	Kennesaw State	C-USA	5.3	6.5%	-	-	-
114	Georgia State	Sun Belt	5.2	<1%	-	-	-
115	Middle Tennessee	C-USA	5.2	1.7%	-	-	-
116	Texas State	Pac-12	5.0	-	-	-	-
117	Eastern Michigan	MAC	4.6	2.8%	-	-	-
118	Sam Houston	C-USA	4.6	3.0%	-	-	-
119	Akron	MAC	4.5	1.6%	-	-	-
120	Sacramento State	MAC	4.4	<1%	-	-	-
121	Washington State	Pac-12	4.4	-	-	-	-
122	Wyoming	Mountain West	4.4	<1%	-	-	-
123	Missouri State	C-USA	4.3	2.4%	-	-	-
124	UAB	American	4.3	<1%	-	-	-
125	Ball State	MAC	4.2	1.2%	-	-	-
126	Kent State	MAC	4.1	<1%	-	-	-
127	Western Kentucky	C-USA	4.1	3.0%	-	-	-
128	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	4.0	1.5%	-	-	-
129	Rice	American	3.9	<1%	-	-	-
130	Stanford	ACC	3.8	-	-	-	-
131	UTEP	C-USA	3.8	<1%	-	-	-
132	Bowling Green	MAC	3.4	<1%	-	-	-
133	Utah State	Mountain West	3.2	<1%	-	-	-
134	Northern Illinois	MAC	3.1	<1%	-	-	-
135	Rutgers	Big Ten	3.1	-	-	-	-
136	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	2.4	<1%	-	-	-
137	Charlotte	American	2.1	<1%	-	-	-
138	App State	Sun Belt	0.0	-	-	-	-

Methodology

Each of the 10,000runs plays the entire real 2026 FBS schedule. A team's strength for that run is drawn from a prior built on SP+ ratings (2026 season, regressed toward the FBS mean, with preseason uncertainty), so the model does not pretend July ratings are certain. Game outcomes come from a margin model (rating difference plus a 2.4-point home edge, normal margin distribution); completed games always use the real score. Conference champions are the best conference record in each run. The playoff is the 12-team, straight-seeded format: the five best-ranked conference champions qualify automatically, seven at-large bids fill the field, seeds one through four get byes, first-round games are on campus, and later rounds are neutral. The bracket has fixed positions, so an upset cascades through everything downstream of it.

Known simplifications: no conference championship games, no injuries or transfers mid-run, and a committee modeled as rating plus wins. The market column shows the de-vigged consensus title price from live venue markets where one exists; the gap between the columns is where the model and the market disagree. This is a model estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Cite or embed this data

The dataset is free to cite and republish under CC BY 4.0: credit "Redshirt Analytics" and link to https://www.redshirtanalytics.com/2026-season-simulation. For a live version in your article or site, use the embeddable odds widget, which updates itself daily.

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Frequently asked questions

How does the 2026 season simulation work?

We play out the full 2026 FBS schedule 10,000 times. Each run draws every team's true-season strength from an SP+-based prior (regressed toward the mean, with preseason uncertainty), simulates every game with a margin model plus home edge, crowns conference champions, selects and seeds a 12-team playoff field, and plays the bracket to a champion. Completed games always use the real result.

Why do the simulation odds differ from market prices?

The model only knows ratings, schedules and results; the market also prices roster changes, injuries and public opinion. The gap between the two is the point: it shows where the model and the market disagree, and by how much.

How often is the simulation updated?

Daily. The simulation re-runs automatically when ratings, schedules or results change, so in season the odds update as games finish.

Can I cite or republish these numbers?

Yes. The dataset is free to cite and reuse (CC BY 4.0): credit Redshirt Analytics and link to this page. There is also an embeddable live odds widget you can drop into any article or site.