10,000 simulated seasons · updated daily

We simulated the 2026 college football season 10,000 times

Q: How does the 2026 season simulation work?

We play out the full 2026 FBS schedule 10,000 times. Each run draws every team's true-season strength from an SP+-based prior (regressed toward the mean, with preseason uncertainty), simulates every game with a margin model plus home edge, crowns conference champions, selects and seeds a 12-team playoff field, and plays the bracket to a champion. Completed games always use the real result.

Q: Why do the simulation odds differ from market prices?

The model only knows ratings, schedules and results; the market also prices roster changes, injuries and public opinion. The gap between the two is the point: it shows where the model and the market disagree, and by how much.

Q: How often is the simulation updated?

Daily. The simulation re-runs automatically when ratings, schedules or results change, so in season the odds update as games finish.

Q: Can I cite or republish these numbers?

Yes. The dataset is free to cite and reuse (CC BY 4.0): credit Redshirt Analytics and link to this page. There is also an embeddable live odds widget you can drop into any article or site.

Playoff, conference and national title odds for every FBS team, from a full Monte Carlo of the real 2026 schedule, next to what the prediction markets are paying. Indiana wins the title in 17.1% of runs.

Key takeaways

Indiana is the model's title favorite at 17.1% (market: 8.2%).
Biggest model-over-market gap: Indiana, 17.1% in the sims vs 8.2% at the venues.
Biggest market-over-model gap: Texas, priced 9.6% by the market vs 1.1% in the sims.
Simulation last run August 8, 2026; it re-runs daily and after every results sync. Free to cite with a link (CC BY 4.0).

#	Team	Conf	Proj wins	Win conf	Make CFP	Win title	Market title
1	Indiana	Big Ten	10.0	37.1%	85.6%	17.1%	8.2%
2	Ohio State	Big Ten	9.1	20.7%	72.8%	12.3%	11.4%
3	Texas Tech	Big 12	10.6	53.8%	81.7%	10.3%	2.7%
4	Oregon	Big Ten	9.3	14.7%	62.3%	7.3%	10.3%
5	Notre Dame	Independent	9.9	-	64.7%	6.4%	11.2%
6	Georgia	SEC	8.6	19.8%	51.1%	5.4%	9.1%
7	Ole Miss	SEC	8.6	19.0%	49.6%	4.8%	1.9%
8	Utah	Big 12	9.3	20.2%	51.7%	4.6%	0.8%
9	Miami	ACC	9.4	35.7%	50.9%	3.4%	6.8%
10	Texas A&M	SEC	8.4	13.0%	38.0%	3.0%	2.8%
11	Vanderbilt	SEC	8.3	12.7%	36.1%	3.0%	0.8%
12	Iowa	Big Ten	8.5	6.9%	34.4%	2.6%	0.8%
13	Penn State	Big Ten	8.9	7.9%	33.9%	1.8%	1.1%
14	Washington	Big Ten	7.8	4.4%	24.9%	1.7%	0.8%
15	Oklahoma	SEC	7.5	8.6%	24.4%	1.6%	2.1%
16	USC	Big Ten	7.6	3.2%	20.4%	1.3%	1.4%
17	BYU	Big 12	8.0	7.5%	21.8%	1.2%	0.8%
18	Texas	SEC	7.0	5.4%	16.2%	1.1%	9.6%
19	Tennessee	SEC	7.3	5.6%	15.6%	<1%	1.1%
20	North Texas	American	8.9	28.8%	28.7%	<1%	0.8%
21	SMU	ACC	8.5	14.7%	21.1%	<1%	0.8%
22	Missouri	SEC	7.3	4.7%	14.1%	<1%	0.8%
23	Alabama	SEC	7.0	4.9%	13.8%	<1%	2.5%
24	South Florida	American	8.9	16.8%	20.5%	<1%	-
25	Louisville	ACC	7.9	11.3%	15.9%	<1%	0.8%
26	Illinois	Big Ten	7.6	2.3%	11.7%	<1%	0.8%
27	Virginia	ACC	8.5	9.3%	15.6%	<1%	0.8%
28	Arizona	Big 12	7.3	3.9%	10.6%	<1%	0.8%
29	Michigan	Big Ten	6.6	1.4%	7.4%	<1%	1.4%
30	East Carolina	American	8.7	14.7%	13.5%	<1%	-
31	Clemson	ACC	7.9	5.6%	10.0%	<1%	0.8%
32	Georgia Tech	ACC	7.4	5.3%	8.5%	<1%	0.8%
33	Iowa State	Big 12	7.3	3.4%	7.8%	<1%	-
34	Auburn	SEC	6.7	2.0%	7.1%	<1%	0.8%
35	Toledo	MAC	9.1	35.8%	13.4%	<1%	-
36	Memphis	American	7.9	9.5%	9.5%	<1%	-
37	Pittsburgh	ACC	7.8	5.7%	8.3%	<1%	0.8%
38	San Diego State	Mountain West	7.9	14.4%	6.9%	<1%	-
39	Houston	Big 12	7.7	2.6%	5.9%	<1%	0.8%
40	LSU	SEC	6.4	2.0%	5.9%	<1%	5%
41	UConn	Independent	9.2	-	5.5%	<1%	-
42	Navy	American	7.6	11.1%	8.0%	<1%	-
43	Tulane	American	7.6	8.5%	7.2%	<1%	0.8%
44	TCU	Big 12	7.1	1.9%	5.3%	<1%	0.8%
45	Kansas State	Big 12	7.0	2.3%	5.0%	<1%	0.8%
46	UTSA	American	7.5	5.8%	4.6%	<1%	-
47	Duke	ACC	6.6	3.0%	4.2%	<1%	-
48	Western Kentucky	C-USA	7.5	38.6%	4.0%	<1%	-
49	NC State	ACC	7.2	3.5%	4.0%	<1%	-
50	Florida State	ACC	6.5	2.1%	3.9%	<1%	0.8%
51	Wake Forest	ACC	6.6	2.7%	3.7%	<1%	-
52	Kansas	Big 12	6.6	1.4%	2.6%	<1%	-
53	South Carolina	SEC	5.9	<1%	2.0%	<1%	0.8%
54	Fresno State	Mountain West	6.9	6.5%	1.7%	<1%	-
55	Nebraska	Big Ten	5.8	<1%	1.5%	<1%	-
56	Arkansas	SEC	5.0	<1%	1.3%	<1%	0.8%
57	Washington State	Pac-12	6.5	-	1.0%	<1%	-
58	UNLV	Mountain West	7.8	19.7%	6.4%	-	-
59	Hawai'i	Mountain West	8.3	18.1%	5.4%	-	-
60	New Mexico	Mountain West	7.7	14.1%	3.8%	-	-
61	Boise State	Mountain West	6.6	8.5%	2.2%	-	-
62	Western Michigan	MAC	7.2	16.2%	2.1%	-	-
63	Army	American	6.5	2.9%	1.8%	-	-
64	Cincinnati	Big 12	6.1	<1%	1.7%	-	-
65	Arizona State	Big 12	6.1	1.2%	1.5%	-	0.8%
66	Northwestern	Big Ten	5.9	<1%	1.5%	-	-
67	Air Force	Mountain West	7.1	9.6%	1.4%	-	-
68	Louisiana Tech	C-USA	8.8	-	1.2%	-	-
69	Ohio	MAC	7.5	10.1%	1.2%	-	-
70	Miami (OH)	MAC	7.0	16.3%	1.1%	-	0.8%
71	Mississippi State	SEC	5.4	<1%	1.0%	-	-
72	Jacksonville State	C-USA	7.4	12.2%	<1%	-	-
73	Kennesaw State	C-USA	7.3	14.6%	<1%	-	-
74	Baylor	Big 12	5.4	<1%	<1%	-	0.8%
75	Rutgers	Big Ten	5.9	<1%	<1%	-	-
76	Florida	SEC	4.9	<1%	<1%	-	1.3%
77	UCF	Big 12	6.0	<1%	<1%	-	-
78	Minnesota	Big Ten	5.6	<1%	<1%	-	-
79	Kentucky	SEC	5.0	<1%	<1%	-	0.8%
80	Buffalo	MAC	6.7	8.2%	<1%	-	-
81	Maryland	Big Ten	5.7	<1%	<1%	-	-
82	Liberty	C-USA	7.3	8.8%	<1%	-	-
83	California	ACC	5.7	<1%	<1%	-	0.8%
84	Utah State	Mountain West	5.7	3.0%	<1%	-	-
85	Central Michigan	MAC	6.2	4.5%	<1%	-	-
86	Temple	American	5.4	<1%	<1%	-	-
87	Florida International	C-USA	6.1	6.9%	<1%	-	-
88	Wisconsin	Big Ten	5.0	<1%	<1%	-	-
89	Missouri State	C-USA	5.7	6.0%	<1%	-	-
90	Wyoming	Mountain West	5.7	2.4%	<1%	-	-
91	Delaware	C-USA	5.6	5.8%	<1%	-	-
92	Eastern Michigan	MAC	5.6	1.7%	<1%	-	-
93	Tulsa	American	5.5	<1%	<1%	-	-
94	Nevada	Mountain West	5.3	1.7%	<1%	-	-
95	Florida Atlantic	American	5.1	<1%	<1%	-	-
96	New Mexico State	C-USA	4.8	3.2%	<1%	-	-
97	Michigan State	Big Ten	4.3	<1%	<1%	-	-
98	Boston College	ACC	4.0	<1%	<1%	-	-
99	Colorado	Big 12	3.9	<1%	<1%	-	-
100	Bowling Green	MAC	5.4	2.5%	-	-	-
101	San José State	Mountain West	5.4	1.8%	-	-	-
102	Middle Tennessee	C-USA	5.3	2.7%	-	-	-
103	Akron	MAC	5.1	3.1%	-	-	-
104	Northern Illinois	MAC	4.6	<1%	-	-	-
105	UTEP	C-USA	4.5	1.0%	-	-	-
106	West Virginia	Big 12	4.5	<1%	-	-	-
107	Virginia Tech	ACC	4.3	-	-	-	0.8%
108	UAB	American	4.1	<1%	-	-	-
109	Kent State	MAC	4.0	<1%	-	-	-
110	UCLA	Big Ten	4.0	-	-	-	-
111	Purdue	Big Ten	3.9	-	-	-	-
112	Ball State	MAC	3.8	<1%	-	-	-
113	Colorado State	Mountain West	3.8	<1%	-	-	-
114	North Carolina	ACC	3.8	<1%	-	-	0.8%
115	Oregon State	Pac-12	3.7	-	-	-	-
116	Rice	American	3.5	<1%	-	-	-
117	Oklahoma State	Big 12	3.2	-	-	-	0.8%
118	Stanford	ACC	3.2	<1%	-	-	-
119	Syracuse	ACC	3.2	<1%	-	-	-
120	Sam Houston	C-USA	3.0	<1%	-	-	-
121	Charlotte	American	2.6	-	-	-	-
122	Massachusetts	MAC	2.2	-	-	-	-

Methodology

Each of the 10,000runs plays the entire real 2026 FBS schedule. A team's strength for that run is drawn from a prior built on SP+ ratings (2025 season, regressed toward the FBS mean, with preseason uncertainty), so the model does not pretend July ratings are certain. Game outcomes come from a margin model (rating difference plus a 2.4-point home edge, normal margin distribution); completed games always use the real score. Conference champions are the best conference record in each run. The playoff is the 12-team, straight-seeded format: the five best-ranked conference champions qualify automatically, seven at-large bids fill the field, seeds one through four get byes, first-round games are on campus, and later rounds are neutral. The bracket has fixed positions, so an upset cascades through everything downstream of it.

Known simplifications: no conference championship games, no injuries or transfers mid-run, and a committee modeled as rating plus wins. The market column shows the de-vigged consensus title price from live venue markets where one exists; the gap between the columns is where the model and the market disagree. This is a model estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Cite or embed this data

The dataset is free to cite and republish under CC BY 4.0: credit "Redshirt Analytics" and link to https://www.redshirtanalytics.com/2026-season-simulation. For a live version in your article or site, use the embeddable odds widget, which updates itself daily.

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Frequently asked questions

How does the 2026 season simulation work?

We play out the full 2026 FBS schedule 10,000 times. Each run draws every team's true-season strength from an SP+-based prior (regressed toward the mean, with preseason uncertainty), simulates every game with a margin model plus home edge, crowns conference champions, selects and seeds a 12-team playoff field, and plays the bracket to a champion. Completed games always use the real result.

Why do the simulation odds differ from market prices?

The model only knows ratings, schedules and results; the market also prices roster changes, injuries and public opinion. The gap between the two is the point: it shows where the model and the market disagree, and by how much.

How often is the simulation updated?

Daily. The simulation re-runs automatically when ratings, schedules or results change, so in season the odds update as games finish.

Can I cite or republish these numbers?

Yes. The dataset is free to cite and reuse (CC BY 4.0): credit Redshirt Analytics and link to this page. There is also an embeddable live odds widget you can drop into any article or site.