10,000 simulated seasons · updated daily

We simulated the 2026 college football season 10,000 times

Q: How does the 2026 season simulation work?

We play out the full 2026 FBS schedule 10,000 times. Each run draws every team's true-season strength from an SP+-based prior (regressed toward the mean, with preseason uncertainty), simulates every game with a margin model plus home edge, crowns conference champions, selects and seeds a 12-team playoff field, and plays the bracket to a champion. Completed games always use the real result.

Q: Why do the simulation odds differ from market prices?

The model only knows ratings, schedules and results; the market also prices roster changes, injuries and public opinion. The gap between the two is the point: it shows where the model and the market disagree, and by how much.

Q: How often is the simulation updated?

Daily. The simulation re-runs automatically when ratings, schedules or results change, so in season the odds update as games finish.

Q: Can I cite or republish these numbers?

Yes. The dataset is free to cite and reuse (CC BY 4.0): credit Redshirt Analytics and link to this page. There is also an embeddable live odds widget you can drop into any article or site.

Playoff, conference and national title odds for every FBS team, from a full Monte Carlo of the real 2026 schedule, next to what the prediction markets are paying. Ohio State wins the title in 13.2% of runs.

Key takeaways

Ohio State is the model's title favorite at 13.2% (market: 1.5%).
Biggest model-over-market gap: Ohio State, 13.2% in the sims vs 1.5% at the venues.
Biggest market-over-model gap: Georgia, priced 25.4% by the market vs 12.6% in the sims.
Simulation last run November 7, 2026; it re-runs daily and after every results sync. Free to cite with a link (CC BY 4.0).

#	Team	Conf	Proj wins	Win conf	Make CFP	Win title	Market title
1	Ohio State	Big Ten	8.9	31.7%	78.4%	13.2%	1.5%
2	Georgia	SEC	10.0	57.9%	83.0%	12.6%	25.4%
3	Notre Dame	Independent	10.0	-	76.8%	9.4%	15.8%
4	Miami	ACC	10.9	92.0%	90.4%	9.3%	8.8%
5	Indiana	Big Ten	10.2	33.9%	77.7%	8.2%	7%
6	LSU	SEC	8.6	10.0%	61.6%	8.0%	2.1%
7	Alabama	SEC	8.9	7.3%	47.5%	3.9%	9.4%
8	Utah	Big 12	10.4	50.2%	60.2%	3.5%	2.6%
9	Texas	SEC	8.4	4.2%	38.7%	3.5%	7.6%
10	Texas Tech	Big 12	9.6	20.3%	47.1%	3.2%	0.9%
11	Tennessee	SEC	8.4	4.8%	30.9%	2.6%	1.1%
12	BYU	Big 12	9.5	19.4%	39.4%	2.3%	0.7%
13	UCLA	Big Ten	10.3	29.5%	43.8%	1.9%	2.6%
14	Arizona	Big 12	8.8	5.1%	26.9%	1.5%	0.7%
15	Oregon	Big Ten	7.3	1.2%	17.3%	1.4%	2.2%
16	Ole Miss	SEC	8.6	4.6%	21.0%	1.1%	1.1%
17	USC	Big Ten	8.5	1.9%	18.7%	1.1%	1.3%
18	Wake Forest	ACC	9.7	5.1%	23.6%	1.0%	0.7%
19	SMU	ACC	8.6	2.0%	17.6%	1.0%	0.7%
20	Northwestern	Big Ten	8.1	<1%	14.5%	<1%	-
21	Missouri	SEC	7.9	2.2%	14.5%	<1%	0.7%
22	James Madison	Sun Belt	9.4	87.9%	28.8%	<1%	0.7%
23	Houston	Big 12	8.7	2.3%	18.1%	<1%	0.7%
24	Boise State	Mountain West	9.2	38.8%	22.7%	<1%	-
25	Nebraska	Big Ten	6.6	-	8.0%	<1%	-
26	New Mexico	Mountain West	10.1	53.2%	29.0%	<1%	-
27	Kentucky	SEC	8.8	8.9%	15.5%	<1%	0.7%
28	Iowa	Big Ten	8.2	<1%	13.0%	<1%	0.7%
29	Oklahoma State	Big 12	7.3	1.8%	7.8%	<1%	0.7%
30	South Carolina	SEC	7.1	-	5.5%	<1%	0.7%
31	Liberty	C-USA	10.2	63.0%	24.4%	<1%	-
32	North Dakota State	Mountain West	9.4	1.3%	9.6%	<1%	-
33	Louisville	ACC	7.3	<1%	7.8%	<1%	0.7%
34	Florida	SEC	7.2	-	5.1%	<1%	0.9%
35	Michigan	Big Ten	6.8	-	4.7%	<1%	0.4%
36	Virginia Tech	ACC	7.7	-	3.8%	<1%	0.7%
37	Memphis	American	8.9	24.8%	9.9%	<1%	-
38	Duke	ACC	7.7	<1%	3.6%	<1%	-
39	Wisconsin	Big Ten	7.6	<1%	3.6%	<1%	-
40	Washington	Big Ten	6.8	-	3.3%	<1%	0.7%
41	Pittsburgh	ACC	7.7	-	2.9%	<1%	0.7%
42	Oklahoma	SEC	5.8	-	2.2%	<1%	0.4%
43	UTSA	American	8.9	27.8%	5.9%	<1%	-
44	Toledo	MAC	9.1	29.1%	4.6%	<1%	-
45	Baylor	Big 12	6.8	<1%	2.8%	<1%	0.7%
46	North Texas	American	8.4	38.3%	2.3%	<1%	0.7%
47	Illinois	Big Ten	7.1	<1%	2.3%	<1%	0.7%
48	Penn State	Big Ten	6.5	-	1.9%	<1%	0.7%
49	Cincinnati	Big 12	6.9	-	1.7%	<1%	-
50	Kansas State	Big 12	6.0	-	1.5%	<1%	0.7%
51	Oregon State	Pac-12	6.8	-	1.0%	<1%	-
52	Mississippi State	SEC	6.4	-	<1%	<1%	0.7%
53	TCU	Big 12	5.3	-	<1%	<1%	0.7%
54	Ohio	MAC	8.8	48.7%	2.1%	-	-
55	Jacksonville State	C-USA	8.7	21.0%	1.7%	-	-
56	Louisiana Tech	C-USA	8.4	15.4%	1.5%	-	-
57	Texas A&M	SEC	5.7	-	1.5%	-	0.4%
58	Clemson	ACC	7.1	-	1.1%	-	0.7%
59	Army	American	7.5	6.5%	<1%	-	-
60	Air Force	Mountain West	8.3	<1%	<1%	-	-
61	Auburn	SEC	6.3	-	<1%	-	0.7%
62	Western Michigan	MAC	8.1	15.6%	<1%	-	-
63	Louisiana	Sun Belt	7.9	3.6%	<1%	-	-
64	South Florida	American	7.7	-	<1%	-	-
65	Minnesota	Big Ten	6.5	<1%	<1%	-	-
66	UCF	Big 12	6.3	-	<1%	-	-
67	UNLV	Mountain West	7.1	3.4%	<1%	-	-
68	Fresno State	Mountain West	6.8	-	<1%	-	-
69	North Carolina	ACC	6.0	-	<1%	-	0.7%
70	Virginia	ACC	5.7	-	<1%	-	0.7%
71	Florida State	ACC	5.1	-	<1%	-	0.7%
72	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	6.2	4.0%	<1%	-	-
73	Arizona State	Big 12	5.7	-	<1%	-	0.7%
74	Florida Atlantic	American	7.4	<1%	<1%	-	-
75	Wyoming	Mountain West	6.8	3.1%	<1%	-	-
76	East Carolina	American	6.7	1.3%	<1%	-	-
77	Miami (OH)	MAC	6.6	1.4%	<1%	-	0.7%
78	Tulsa	American	6.3	-	<1%	-	-
79	West Virginia	Big 12	6.3	-	<1%	-	-
80	UConn	Independent	6.2	-	<1%	-	-
81	Texas State	Pac-12	5.7	-	<1%	-	-
82	Boston College	ACC	5.2	-	<1%	-	-
83	Kansas	Big 12	4.6	-	<1%	-	-
84	Buffalo	MAC	7.9	5.2%	-	-	-
85	Marshall	Sun Belt	7.3	<1%	-	-	-
86	Massachusetts	MAC	6.6	-	-	-	-
87	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	6.3	1.3%	-	-	-
88	Georgia State	Sun Belt	6.1	-	-	-	-
89	South Alabama	Sun Belt	6.1	<1%	-	-	-
90	Delaware	C-USA	5.8	<1%	-	-	-
91	Troy	Sun Belt	5.8	<1%	-	-	-
92	UAB	American	5.8	<1%	-	-	-
93	Middle Tennessee	C-USA	5.7	<1%	-	-	-
94	NC State	ACC	5.7	-	-	-	-
95	San José State	Mountain West	5.7	-	-	-	-
96	Tulane	American	5.7	<1%	-	-	0.7%
97	Central Michigan	MAC	5.6	-	-	-	-
98	Florida International	C-USA	5.5	-	-	-	-
99	Iowa State	Big 12	5.5	-	-	-	-
100	Syracuse	ACC	5.4	-	-	-	-
101	Eastern Michigan	MAC	4.9	-	-	-	-
102	Nevada	Mountain West	4.9	-	-	-	-
103	New Mexico State	C-USA	4.8	<1%	-	-	-
104	Stanford	ACC	4.8	-	-	-	-
105	San Diego State	Mountain West	4.7	-	-	-	-
106	Western Kentucky	C-USA	4.7	<1%	-	-	-
107	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	4.5	2.5%	-	-	-
108	Purdue	Big Ten	4.4	-	-	-	-
109	Colorado	Big 12	4.3	-	-	-	-
110	Navy	American	4.3	-	-	-	-
111	Missouri State	C-USA	4.2	<1%	-	-	-
112	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	4.2	-	-	-	-
113	Arkansas	SEC	4.1	-	-	-	0.7%
114	Ball State	MAC	4.1	-	-	-	-
115	California	ACC	4.1	-	-	-	0.7%
116	Colorado State	Mountain West	4.1	-	-	-	-
117	Hawai'i	Mountain West	4.1	-	-	-	-
118	Vanderbilt	SEC	4.1	-	-	-	0.7%
119	Kent State	MAC	4.0	-	-	-	-
120	Utah State	Mountain West	4.0	-	-	-	-
121	Kennesaw State	C-USA	3.9	-	-	-	-
122	Temple	American	3.8	-	-	-	-
123	Maryland	Big Ten	3.4	-	-	-	-
124	Michigan State	Big Ten	3.3	-	-	-	-
125	Rutgers	Big Ten	3.3	-	-	-	-
126	Bowling Green	MAC	3.2	-	-	-	-
127	Georgia Tech	ACC	3.2	-	-	-	0.7%
128	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	3.2	-	-	-	-
129	Sam Houston	C-USA	2.5	-	-	-	-
130	Sacramento State	MAC	2.4	-	-	-	-
131	Rice	American	2.3	-	-	-	-
132	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	2.2	-	-	-	-
133	UTEP	C-USA	2.2	-	-	-	-
134	Akron	MAC	1.8	-	-	-	-
135	Charlotte	American	1.8	-	-	-	-
136	Washington State	Pac-12	1.7	-	-	-	-
137	Northern Illinois	MAC	1.1	-	-	-	-
138	App State	Sun Belt	0.0	-	-	-	-

Methodology

Each of the 10,000runs plays the entire real 2026 FBS schedule. A team's strength for that run is drawn from a prior built on SP+ ratings (2026 season, regressed toward the FBS mean, with preseason uncertainty), so the model does not pretend July ratings are certain. Game outcomes come from a margin model (rating difference plus a 2.4-point home edge, normal margin distribution); completed games always use the real score. Conference champions are the best conference record in each run. The playoff is the 12-team, straight-seeded format: the five best-ranked conference champions qualify automatically, seven at-large bids fill the field, seeds one through four get byes, first-round games are on campus, and later rounds are neutral. The bracket has fixed positions, so an upset cascades through everything downstream of it.

Known simplifications: no conference championship games, no injuries or transfers mid-run, and a committee modeled as rating plus wins. The market column shows the de-vigged consensus title price from live venue markets where one exists; the gap between the columns is where the model and the market disagree. This is a model estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Cite or embed this data

The dataset is free to cite and republish under CC BY 4.0: credit "Redshirt Analytics" and link to https://www.redshirtanalytics.com/2026-season-simulation. For a live version in your article or site, use the embeddable odds widget, which updates itself daily.

Trade the gaps

Where the table's last two columns disagree, someone is wrong. You can take a side on Kalshi (promo code FADE: trade $25 and get up to $500), Polymarket (code TGSWC: deposit $20, get a $50 trading bonus) or ProphetX (code VAULT: trade $10, get $20), or see every market we price and all four promo codes.

Trade on Kalshi Trade on Polymarket Trade on ProphetX

Frequently asked questions

How does the 2026 season simulation work?

We play out the full 2026 FBS schedule 10,000 times. Each run draws every team's true-season strength from an SP+-based prior (regressed toward the mean, with preseason uncertainty), simulates every game with a margin model plus home edge, crowns conference champions, selects and seeds a 12-team playoff field, and plays the bracket to a champion. Completed games always use the real result.

Why do the simulation odds differ from market prices?

The model only knows ratings, schedules and results; the market also prices roster changes, injuries and public opinion. The gap between the two is the point: it shows where the model and the market disagree, and by how much.

How often is the simulation updated?

Daily. The simulation re-runs automatically when ratings, schedules or results change, so in season the odds update as games finish.

Can I cite or republish these numbers?

Yes. The dataset is free to cite and reuse (CC BY 4.0): credit Redshirt Analytics and link to this page. There is also an embeddable live odds widget you can drop into any article or site.