The model gives Notre Dame a 57% win probability for Saturday's Week 10 home game against Miami on November 7, a narrow edge that implies about 43% for Miami. On the national-title board, Notre Dame's fair value sits at 13.3% (best price 14c on Polymarket) and Miami's at 10.5% (best price 10c on Kalshi).
That makes this a close game by the model's read, with the home field doing much of the separating. The title prices tell a parallel story: two contenders priced within three points of fair value of each other, and the market treating both as live but not favored.
What does the model say about Miami at Notre Dame?
A 57% read is a lean, not a verdict. The model's edge for Notre Dame is built on power ratings adjusted for venue, and a 57/43 split is the kind of margin that a single turnover or injury can erase. In probability terms, the model expects Notre Dame to win a little more than one of every two meetings on this neutral set of assumptions.
For context, 57% translates to roughly a one-score game expectation. Traders reading the number should treat it as a baseline to compare against any traded game price, not as a standalone signal. Where a market offers Notre Dame meaningfully below 57% or Miami meaningfully below 43%, the model would flag value; where prices cross those marks, the edge closes.
How do the prediction markets price Notre Dame and Miami?
On the season-long title board, the two programs are priced close. Notre Dame's fair value is 13.3% and Miami's is 10.5%, a gap that reflects schedule and resume more than any single game. The cheapest contract prices split by venue: Notre Dame at 14c on Polymarket, Miami at 10c on Kalshi.
These are futures, not a game line, so they move on the full season path rather than one Saturday. Still, a Week 10 result between two top-of-board teams tends to ripple into both prices, since the loser's title path narrows and the winner's strengthens.
For scale, Georgia leads the same board at 21.8% fair value, so both Notre Dame and Miami sit in the second tier of contenders rather than at the front.
The chart below uses the title-board figures only.
Where to trade it: Kalshi or Polymarket?
The venue split is clean on the title board. Notre Dame's contract is cheapest at 14c on Polymarket, while Miami's is cheapest at 10c on Kalshi. Price discovery differs between the two exchanges, so the best entry depends on which side is being priced and where the liquidity sits on the day.
New Polymarket accounts can use code TGSWC (deposit $20, get a $50 trading bonus), which lowers the cost of taking a first position on the Notre Dame contract. The core point stands regardless of promo: compare the live price against the model's read and the de-vigged fair value before taking either side.
The best-price comparison below is drawn straight from the title board.
What could move these prices?
Three forces drive movement here: the game result itself, news in the days around kickoff, and liquidity. A Notre Dame win at home would confirm the model's lean and likely firm its 13.3% fair value; a Miami win would do the opposite and compress the gap between the two.
Because these are title futures rather than a single-game contract, the prices also respond to results elsewhere on the board. Movement at the top, where Georgia sits at 21.8%, changes the implied room for every contender below it.
Prices and the model can both be wrong, and neither is a recommendation. The disciplined read is to treat the model's 57% as one input, the market's price as another, and to act only where the two diverge enough to matter.
