A prediction-market price is a probability in disguise: a YES contract at 32 cents implies about a 32% chance of the outcome, because each winning share settles at one dollar.
Analysis
How CFB futures prices map to probability
A 32-cent contract implies a 32% chance. Here is how to read college football prediction-market prices as probabilities, and where it breaks down.
By The Model Desk · 2026-06-12
Key takeaways
- A YES contract trading at 32 cents implies roughly a 32% probability before fees.
- Across a full field, prices sum to more than 100% because of the market's built-in margin.
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Frequently asked questions
Does a 20-cent price mean a 20% chance?
Roughly, yes. Before fees and margin, a 20-cent YES contract implies about a 20% implied probability of that outcome.
About the author
The Model Desk
The Redshirt Analytics modeling team prices every college football futures contract and tracks the gaps between fair value and live market prices on Kalshi, Polymarket and ProphetX.