The model's clearest mispricing on the board sits with Ohio State: 14c on Kalshi against a 14.6% fair value, the only one of the title favorites trading at a discount to the model. At the other end, Ole Miss screens richest over fair, 5c on Kalshi versus a 3.5% model read.
Those gaps are the same signal that drives the win-total work. Wherever the cheapest tradable price drifts from de-vigged fair value, the model flags the contract as mispriced, and the national-title board is where that divergence shows up cleanest right now.
What does 'mispriced' mean in these markets?
Fair value is built by taking prices across Kalshi and Polymarket, stripping out the vig, and settling on a consensus probability. The best price is the cheapest number a trader can actually transact at across those venues.
A contract is mispriced when those two figures separate. When the best price sits below fair value, the model reads value; when it sits above, the model reads a fade. The size of the gap, not the headline price, is what the screen ranks on.
Which CFB teams trade below the model's fair value?
Ohio State leads the value column. The best price is 14c on Kalshi against a 14.6% fair value, a roughly six-tenths discount and the widest among the title favorites. That is the contract the model points to first.
Notre Dame and Alabama round out the group, though both sit within a tick of fair. Notre Dame prices 13c on Kalshi against 13.1%, and Alabama prices 4c on Polymarket against 4.1%. Neither is a stretched discount, but both hold at or just under the model's number rather than over it.
Kalshi carries the best Ohio State and Notre Dame prices in this snapshot; new accounts can trade with code FADE.
Which teams trade richest over fair?
Ole Miss is the sharpest fade on the screen. At 5c on Kalshi against a 3.5% fair value, the price runs about a point and a half over the model, the largest premium among the teams tracked.
Miami and Indiana follow. Miami prices 15c on Polymarket against a 14.2% fair value, and Indiana prices 8c on Polymarket against 7.3%, both carrying a modest but consistent premium. Florida and Utah each sit at 2c against a 1.6% fair value, small in absolute terms but still over the line.
Polymarket holds the best Miami and Indiana prices here; code TGSWC applies for new accounts.
How the title board informs the win-total read
The figures charted below are national-title contracts, the market with the deepest liquidity in the current snapshot. The engine that prices them is the same one that builds win-total fair value, so the mispricing it surfaces on the title board is the clearest live read on where price and model diverge.
The pattern is directional. The favorites tier splits, with Ohio State under fair and Georgia, Miami and Indiana over it, while the longshot tier skews uniformly over fair as small premiums stack onto thin prices.
Both the model and the market can be wrong, and none of this is financial advice. Longshot liquidity is light, so a one-cent premium can reflect spread as much as genuine overpricing. The screen flags where to look, not what settles.
Best price versus the model, in cents
The best-price picture tightens the read. Ohio State's 14c sits under its 14.6% fair value, while Georgia (16c), Miami (15c) and Indiana (8c) all print above their model numbers.
Ole Miss at 5c against a 3.5% fair value is the clearest over on this view, a price that outruns the model by the widest margin on the board.
