The honest answer to which make-the-playoff contenders are underpriced is: almost none, at least not outright. Read off the national-title market, the cleanest public proxy for deep-run equity, every major contender's best price sits at or above the model's fair value. The sharper question is which teams the market taxes least per point of model probability.
That reframes the exercise. Instead of hunting for a contract trading below the model, the read is about premium size: Miami and Alabama sit closest to fair, while Georgia and Notre Dame pay the heaviest markup. The second tier, led by Indiana and Oregon, is where single-digit cents buy the most deep-run optionality.
Why no playoff contender trades below fair value
Across the board, best price exceeds fair value at every line. Georgia's 16c best price stands against a 13.6% fair value, Ohio State and Texas both price 14c over a 12.7% model read, and even the longshots carry a markup: Ole Miss trades 3c on an 1.8% fair value. The price floor sits above the model everywhere liquidity is thin.
That is the structural reality of a de-vigged board. Published prices include the venue's edge, so the model's fair value lands underneath the cheapest quote. Underpriced, in this market, means smallest gap rather than a true discount.
Title price is also a conservative stand-in for a make-the-playoff question. A team the market prices near 10% to win the championship has a far higher probability of simply reaching the 12-team field, so the title contract functions as a floor on bracket equity, not a ceiling.
Which contenders carry the thinnest premium
Among playoff-tier names, Miami is the least taxed: an 11c best price (on Kalshi) against a 10.1% fair value, under a point of markup. Alabama is close behind at 8c over a 7.3% fair value. Ohio State and Texas each give up roughly a point and a third, pricing 14c against 12.7%.
The fattest premiums belong to the top of the board. Georgia's 16c over a 13.6% model is about 2.4 points of markup, and Notre Dame's 12c over 9.9% is the widest ratio among favorites. For deep-run exposure, paying up for the headline names costs the most relative to the model.
Venue matters here. Kalshi posts the best price on Texas, Miami and Ole Miss, while Polymarket holds the cheapest quote on Georgia, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Alabama, Indiana, LSU, Oregon and Florida. The cheapest venue to express a view is not constant across the board.
Where make-the-playoff value really sits: the second tier
The strongest make-playoff case is the second tier, where the title contract most understates bracket odds. Indiana carries a 6.8% title fair value at 8c, Alabama 7.3% at 8c, and LSU 4.3% at 5c. Each of those probabilities implies a much larger chance of reaching the field than of winning it.
Oregon is the clearest optionality play at 5c against a 4% fair value. The title number is long, but a team priced that way is a live bracket candidate, and the cents outlay keeps the premium small in absolute terms.
Below that, Ole Miss (3c, 1.8% fair) and Florida (2c, 1.7% fair) are longer-dated bets on a late surge. The markup ratio widens as prices thin, so the second tier, not the tail, is where the cleanest deep-run value concentrates.
How to read title price as playoff equity
The method is straightforward: treat each team's de-vigged title fair value as a floor on its make-the-playoff probability, then measure the gap between the cheapest live quote and that floor. The smaller the gap, the less the market charges over the model for deep-run exposure.
On that basis Miami and Alabama screen as the most efficient entries, the favorites pay the steepest markup, and the second tier offers the most leverage per cent. These are market prices mapped to a model, and both can be wrong; this is analysis, not financial advice.
For traders comparing venues, promo access can affect net cost: Polymarket's TGSWC (deposit $20, get a $50 trading bonus) and Kalshi's FADE (trade $25, get up to $500) cover the two books carrying these prices.
