Notre Dame sits atop the 2026 national title board with a model fair value of 11.1%, the single highest figure on the slate. The cheapest way into the market is 12c on Kalshi, which prices the Irish a touch above the model's number rather than below it.
How does Notre Dame's title price compare to fair value?
The model's fair value for Notre Dame is 11.1%. The best available contract is 12c on Kalshi. Reading cents as probability, 12c implies roughly a 12% chance, so the market is asking a small premium over the de-vigged consensus.
That gap is narrow, but the direction matters. When price sits above fair value, the model reads the contract as slightly rich rather than a value entry. For traders using Kalshi's FADE code (trade $25, get up to $500), the takeaway is that Notre Dame is the board leader by probability, not a discount.
The premium is modest enough that it can close on a single result or a shift in liquidity. It does not, on its own, flag a fade; it simply says the number offers no edge at 12c.
Where does Notre Dame rank on the 2026 title board?
Notre Dame's 11.1% is the top mark in a tightly bunched top tier. Ohio State follows at 10.3%, with Oregon and Miami tied at 10% and Indiana at 9%. The spread from first to fifth is barely two points of implied probability.
That compression is the story of the 2026 board: no single team has separated, and the leader's edge over the field is slim. Small model or market moves can reshuffle the order week to week.
Why does Notre Dame have no conference title odds?
Notre Dame plays football as an Independent and does not belong to a conference. There is no league championship for the Irish to win, so no conference title market exists to price or trade.
That leaves the national title contract, plus playoff and win-total markets elsewhere, as the primary futures exposure to Notre Dame. Teams inside the Big Ten, SEC and ACC carry a second futures lever their Independent counterpart does not.
Where does the model stand on Notre Dame?
The model rates Notre Dame the most likely 2026 champion at 11.1%, but the cheapest contract at 12c already reflects that standing and then some. The read is neutral to slightly negative on value: board leader by probability, no edge at the current price.
The cleaner way to frame it is relative. If Notre Dame's price drifts back toward or below 11c while the model holds near 11.1%, the entry improves. Until then, contenders trading under their fair value offer more room than the board's front-runner.
Prices and the model can both be wrong, and a single result can move the entire top tier given how bunched it is. For now, Notre Dame is the number to beat on the board, not the value on it.
