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Analysis

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Has Better CFB Prices

Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football: Polymarket posts the cheapest price on seven of twelve national-title contracts, but Kalshi owns the top of the board.

By The Model Desk · 2026-09-11
Analysis
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Key takeaways
  • Polymarket posts the cheapest price on seven of the twelve national-title contracts the desk tracks as of September 11, 2026.
  • Kalshi holds the cheapest price on the board's shortest team, Notre Dame at 12c against an 11.1% fair value.
  • Oregon's best price of 10c on Kalshi sits exactly at the model's 10% fair value, the tightest line on the board.
  • Oklahoma's cheapest price, 2c on Polymarket, trades below the model's 2.2% fair value.
  • Ohio State's 12c best price on Polymarket sits 1.7 points above its 10.3% fair value.

Neither venue wins outright. As of September 11, 2026, Polymarket posts the cheapest price on seven of the twelve national-title contracts the desk tracks, while Kalshi holds the other five, clustered at the top of the board. The shortest team on the board, Notre Dame at 12c, prices best on Kalshi. The better venue is a function of tier, not brand.

Which venue has the better CFB title prices?

Counting cheapest-venue wins across the title board splits close to evenly, with an edge to Polymarket on volume. Polymarket carries the low price on Ohio State, Indiana, Texas, LSU, Oklahoma and Texas A&M, plus one deep tail contract, seven in all. Kalshi carries the low on Notre Dame, Miami, Oregon, Georgia and USC.

The pattern is clean: Kalshi owns the top of the board and the near-favorites, while Polymarket owns the middle and the longshots. A trader pricing the chalk and a trader pricing the tail are effectively shopping at different venues.

Price alone is only half the read. The model's de-vigged fair value sets the bar each price is measured against, and the cheapest venue does not always clear below that bar.

Where Kalshi wins: the top of the board

Kalshi's five cheapest-venue teams sit near the front. Notre Dame prices at 12c against an 11.1% fair value, a 0.9 point premium at the top of the market. Miami is 11c on a 10% fair value, and Georgia is 9c on 7.9%.

Oregon is the standout line on the entire board: its 10c best price on Kalshi sits exactly at the model's 10% fair value, leaving no premium at all. USC rounds out the group at 3c against a 2.8% fair value, the only sub-5c contract Kalshi prices cheapest.

Where Polymarket wins: the middle and the tail

Polymarket's book runs deeper down the board. Ohio State prices best there at 12c, though that sits 1.7 points above its 10.3% fair value, the richest premium among the favorites. Indiana is 11c on a 9% fair value, and Texas is 10c on 8.4%.

The venue's real edge shows in the tail. LSU prices at 8c against 7.3%, and both Oklahoma and Texas A&M clear at 2c. Oklahoma is the notable one: its 2c best price sits below the model's 2.2% fair value, the only title contract on the board trading under its de-vigged mark.

For traders who live in the longshot tier, Polymarket is where the cheapest cents concentrate.

Reading across the two books, the split is structural rather than incidental.

Why the same team costs different cents at each venue

Kalshi and Polymarket run independent order books with different liquidity, fee structures and trader bases, so an identical contract can clear at different prices at the same moment. Notre Dame at 12c on Kalshi and Ohio State at 12c on Polymarket carry the same headline price but very different premiums over fair value, 0.9 points versus 1.7.

The model corrects for this by stripping the vig from raw prices, building a consensus fair value across venues, and surfacing the cheaper book per team. That is why the answer to which venue is better is per contract, not global.

Kalshi's cheapest title prices
Notre Dame12c
Miami11c
Oregon10c
Georgia9c
USC3c

The read: shop by tier

The practical takeaway is to route by board position. For favorites and near-favorites, Kalshi holds the low price more often, and it owns the two contracts nearest fair value in Oregon and USC. For the middle and the tail, Polymarket holds the cheaper cents, including the board's only under-fair contract in Oklahoma.

Kalshi lists code FADE and Polymarket lists code TGSWC for new accounts, with terms set by each venue. Prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice; the point is that the cheaper venue is a per-team question, and the current board answers it by tier.

Polymarket's cheapest title prices
Ohio State12c
Indiana11c
Texas10c
LSU8c
Oklahoma2c
Texas A&M2c
TeamsNotre DameOhio StOregonMiamiTexasIndiana
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Frequently asked questions

Which is cheaper for college football title contracts, Kalshi or Polymarket?

Polymarket posts the cheapest price on seven of the twelve national-title contracts the desk tracks, while Kalshi holds five, concentrated at the top of the board. The better venue depends on which tier a trader is pricing, not on the brand.

Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same team?

The two venues run separate order books with different liquidity and trader bases, so the same contract can clear at different cents. The model builds a de-vigged consensus fair value across venues and flags the cheaper book per team.

Does the cheapest price always beat the model's fair value?

No. Oregon's best price of 10c on Kalshi sits right at its 10% fair value, and Oklahoma's 2c on Polymarket trades below the 2.2% fair value, while Ohio State's 12c sits well above its 10.3% mark.

What is a de-vigged fair value?

It is the model's estimate of true win probability after stripping the built-in margin from raw market prices. Comparing a venue's price to that number shows whether a contract is rich or cheap.

Are there sign-up codes for these venues?

Kalshi lists code FADE (trade $25, get up to $500) and Polymarket lists code TGSWC (deposit $20, get a $50 trading bonus). Terms are set by each venue.

About the author
The Model Desk

The Redshirt Analytics modeling team prices every college football futures contract and tracks the gaps between fair value and live market prices on Kalshi, Polymarket and ProphetX.