Ohio State's 2026 national-title contract trades at a best price of 5c on Kalshi against a model fair value of 5.2%. That is as close to parity as the title board offers: the market and the model agree, and the roughly 0.2 point gap leaves almost no edge to work in either direction.
Where does Ohio State's national-title price sit?
The cheapest venue for the Ohio State title contract is Kalshi at 5c. Against a de-vigged consensus fair value of 5.2%, that price is effectively fair. On a board where most longshot contracts carry a visible premium over model fair value, Ohio State is one of the few names priced at its number.
That positions Ohio State in the board's middle tier. Georgia anchors the top at 21.9% fair value, with Notre Dame at 13.7%, Miami at 9.6%, LSU at 9.1%, Indiana at 7.5% and Texas at 6.8% all ahead. Ohio State's 5.2% slots just below that group and just above Alabama at 4.8%.
Is there edge at 5c on Kalshi?
Price discovery here has done its job. A 5c contract implies roughly 5% before vig, and the consensus fair value lands at 5.2%, so the market is not materially mispricing Ohio State in either direction. Contracts this tight reward precision on the underlying view rather than a venue-shopping discount.
Compare that to the top of the board, where Georgia's 23c best price on Kalshi sits above its 21.9% fair value, or the thinner longshot tier, where Ole Miss (5c best price versus 3.3% fair value) and UCLA (3c versus 1.8%) trade well over the model. Ohio State carries none of that overpricing. Kalshi's code FADE covers new accounts for those tracking the cheapest venue.
What about Big Ten conference odds?
The current board prices national-title contracts only; no standalone Big Ten conference-title price for Ohio State appears in the data. Any league read, therefore, is inferred rather than quoted directly.
Within the priced Big Ten field, the national-title market ranks Indiana first at 7.5% fair value, Ohio State second at 5.2%, and UCLA a distant third at 1.8%. Indiana's figure sitting above Ohio State's is the notable line: the title board does not treat Ohio State as the clear Big Ten favorite.
Where the model stands
The model's fair value for Ohio State is 5.2%, and the market has met it at 5c. There is no fade and no obvious value play here; the contract is priced where it should be, which is itself the signal.
The chart below frames Ohio State against the names immediately around it and the leaders above it. The read is consistent: Ohio State is a legitimate second-tier title contender whose price carries none of the premium stacked onto the longshots. Prices and the model can both be wrong, and this is analysis rather than financial advice, but on the current board Ohio State is one of the cleaner reads available.
Ohio State: price versus fair value
Stacking the best available price against the model fair value shows how little daylight separates them. The 5c Kalshi price and the 5.2% fair value are, for practical purposes, the same number, which is rare on a board where longshot prices routinely run hot.
