Among sub-8% national title longshots, the model flags only one true discount: Florida, priced at 1c against a fair value of 1.2%. Indiana and LSU trade effectively at fair, while Ole Miss and Utah sit rich to the model. The longshot tail, in short, is priced tight.
That is the headline for anyone hunting dark-horse edges in the current board. The tier below the Alabama and Texas cluster (both 7.6% to 7.7% fair) is thin on genuine mispricing. The names that look cheap in absolute cents are mostly fair-to-rich once the model's fair value is laid alongside the price.
Which longshot carries a real model edge?
Florida is the single name in the longshot tier whose best price undercuts the model's fair value. The contract prints at 1c on Kalshi against a fair value of 1.2%. In relative terms it is the only discount on the tail; in absolute terms the gap is two tenths of a point, which is well inside model error.
The practical read is that Florida is a penny lottery ticket that the model rates fractionally above its price. That is a cleaner setup than paying a premium, but it is not a conviction edge. At a single cent, the contract offers convex payoff with minimal downside per unit, which is the usual appeal of the deep tail rather than a signal that the market has it wrong.
Where does the longshot tail trade at fair?
Indiana is the cleanest pure longshot read on the board. The model's fair value is 6%, and the best price is 6c on Polymarket, an exact match. There is no edge in either direction, which makes Indiana the reference point for how efficiently this tier is priced.
LSU sits one notch down and tells the same story: 1.9% fair value against a 2c best price on Polymarket, roughly a tenth of a point rich and functionally fair. Neither name rewards a model-driven entry, but neither punishes one either. The tail here is doing its job, mapping price to probability with little slack.
The chart below ranks the longshot tier by model fair value, from Indiana at the top down to Utah at the floor.
Which longshots price rich to the model?
Ole Miss is the richest name relative to fair in the tier. Best price is 4c on Kalshi against a 2.6% fair value, a premium of roughly 1.4 points. In title terms that screens as a fade rather than value: the market is charging more than the model thinks the outcome is worth.
Utah shows a similar pattern at the floor, 2c best price against 1.1% fair value, nearly double the model's number in cents terms. These are the names to avoid paying up for if the model is the anchor. The gap is small in absolute cents but large as a fraction of fair value.
Comparing best price in cents sharpens the point: the cheapest absolute tickets are not the cheapest relative to fair.
How should a thin longshot edge be read?
Deep-tail title contracts behave like lottery tickets, and small fair-value gaps live inside the model's margin of error. The honest conclusion is that the longshot board is efficient right now, with Florida the lone sub-fair print and Indiana sitting exactly at fair. There is no standout dark horse the model is screaming to back.
When edges are this thin, venue selection carries more weight than the edge itself. Florida's 1c best price sits on Kalshi (code FADE), while Indiana's 6c and LSU's 2c print on Polymarket (code TGSWC). Shaving a cent on entry matters more than usual when the model and the market are this close.
Both the prices and the model can be wrong, and nothing here is financial advice. The takeaway is narrow and data-led: the longshot tier is tightly priced, the only relative discount is Florida, and the rest of the tail trades at or above what the model considers fair.
