The dark-horse tier mostly overpays. Of the teams carrying a title price below 8% fair value, only Ohio State trades at or beneath the model's number: 5c on Kalshi against a 5.2% fair value. Every other longshot on the board sits above fair, and the premium widens as the price shrinks.
That reframes the usual hunt for cheap title equity. The model's edge is not sitting in the 2c-to-5c bargain bin; it is thinnest exactly where traders reach for it.
Which longshots actually carry a model edge?
One. Ohio State at 5c on Kalshi reads as fair value or a shade better, with the model at 5.2%. That is the only contract in the sub-8% group where price does not run past the model.
Everything else in the tier carries a markup. Indiana prices 8c on Polymarket against a 7.5% fair value, Texas 7c on Polymarket against 6.1%, and Alabama 5c on Polymarket against 4.5%. The gaps are small in cents but real in percentage terms, and they all cut the same direction: the market asks for more than the model will pay.
The takeaway is that the dark-horse label does not equal value. A longshot price can be low and still be expensive relative to the fair number behind it.
Where the longshot premium runs widest
The steepest markups live at the bottom of the board. Ole Miss trades 5c on Kalshi against a 3.4% fair value, a premium of roughly 47%. Utah is cheaper in absolute terms at 3c on Kalshi, but against a 1.9% fair value that is about a 58% markup, the richest gap in the tier.
This is the structural tell of cheap contracts: the smaller the fair value, the larger the proportional overpay. A single cent of premium on a 2c-to-5c price is a far bigger fraction than the same cent on a 20c favorite.
The chart below lines up the model's fair value against the best available price for the six dark-horse contracts, and the pattern holds across the group.
What the best prices say next to fair value
Set the cheapest venue price beside the model and the overpay is visible at a glance. Ohio State is the lone contract where the cent figure does not exceed the fair value percentage, and Ole Miss and Utah are the two that stretch furthest past it.
For a trader screening the tier, the sequence to watch is simple: compare the best price in cents to the fair value in percent, then rank by the gap. On current numbers that ranking runs from Ohio State at the value end to Utah and Ole Miss at the expensive end.
Why longshot contracts skew rich
Two forces push the dark-horse tier above fair. The first is the market's built-in margin, which falls proportionally hardest on cheap contracts; stripping the vig matters most precisely where prices are smallest. The second is demand for the long payout, which bids up small-number prices beyond what the probabilities support.
The result is a board where the cheapest tickets are often the worst relative value. That does not make any single price wrong on its own, and the model can miss, but the direction of the skew is consistent across the group.
How to read the dark-horse board by venue
Venue still decides the entry. Ohio State, Ole Miss and Utah show their best prices on Kalshi, while Indiana, Texas and Alabama are cheapest on Polymarket. Taking the wrong exchange adds cost on top of an already rich longshot.
For traders mapping these contracts, Kalshi's code FADE and Polymarket's code TGSWC cover the two venues that set the best prices across this tier. The discipline is the same regardless of venue: compare price to fair value first, then take the cheapest book, and treat any longshot trading above the model as a premium, not a discount.
