The contenders trading at or below model fair value are Georgia, Florida and USC. Every other name on the board carries a best price above its fair value, which leaves those three as the only tickets a make-the-playoff market read flags as underpriced rather than rich.
There is no separate published make-the-playoff price here, so the national-title board serves as the proxy. Title fair value and playoff equity draw on the same power ratings and schedule inputs, so a contract trading under its title fair value is the market shading a team's deeper-run odds. The gap between best price and fair value is the signal.
Which playoff contenders are underpriced?
Georgia leads the underpriced group. The model's fair value is 14.2%, and the best price is 14c on Kalshi, so the market is paying below the model for the board's top-rated team. That is the cleanest expression of value at the front of the field.
Florida is the tail-tier case. Fair value sits at 5.1% and the best price is 5c on Kalshi, a rare instance of a mid-board contract printing under the model rather than over it. USC completes the set at 1c on Kalshi against 1.1% fair value, the smallest ticket but still on the correct side of the line.
The common thread is venue: all three underpriced contracts are cheapest on Kalshi. The value is not scattered across exchanges; it is concentrated at one book, which simplifies where a title-board proxy trade would sit.
Where the board trades rich
The top of the market is where price runs ahead of the model. Ohio State and Texas both carry an 11.7% fair value yet trade at 13c, on Kalshi and Polymarket respectively. Notre Dame is priced the same at 13c against 11.1% fair value. Three contenders share the 13c line, and all three sit above the model.
The pattern continues down the board. Miami trades at 9c against 8.7%, Indiana 8c against 6.7%, LSU 6c against 5.5%, Oregon 5c against 4.1%, Alabama 3c against 2.8%, and Ole Miss 2c against 1.1%. Each of those is a small-to-moderate premium, but the direction is consistent: the field is priced over fair value, not under it.
That makes Georgia, Florida and USC the exceptions rather than the rule. A make-the-playoff market that inherits these same relationships would show most contenders costing more than their modeled chance, with value pooled in a short list.
Fair value versus best price
The chart below sets the model's fair value against the best available price for the three underpriced names plus the 13c cluster. The underpriced contracts hug or dip under their fair-value line; the rich cluster sits above it.
Reading the board this way keeps the focus on the gap, not the headline number. A 14c Georgia ticket and a 1c USC ticket occupy different tiers, but both share the trait that matters: price at or under model fair value.
How to read the value from here
The takeaway is narrow by design. Prices and the model can both be wrong, and a proxy read from the title board is not a substitute for a dedicated make-the-playoff line. But when the board offers only three contracts at or below fair value, that short list is where the model and the market disagree in the trader's favor.
Georgia is the highest-conviction of the three on model terms, Florida the mid-tier value, USC the longshot. All three are cheapest on Kalshi, where code FADE offers up to $500 on $25 traded. Nothing here is financial advice; it is a read on where price undercuts the model today.
