To read a college football futures price as a probability, treat the price in cents as a percentage, then adjust for the vig. A contract trading at 12c implies roughly a 12 percent chance of the outcome. That is the starting point, not the finished number, because quoted prices across a market always total more than 100 percent.
On the national title board, Ohio State's best price of 12c on Kalshi maps to about a 12 percent raw chance, while the model's de-vigged fair value lands at 11.1 percent. The distance between those two figures is the entire game: it separates a headline number from a probability worth acting on.
What does a futures price in cents actually mean?
A prediction-market contract settles at 100c if the outcome hits and 0c if it does not. So the price paid is the market's estimate of the probability, expressed on a 0 to 100 scale. Buy a title contract at 11c and the market is pricing roughly an 11 percent chance the team wins it all.
This is why prediction markets translate so cleanly. There is no moneyline to decode and no fractional odds to convert. The price is the probability, give or take the margin that the venue and the order book build in.
Notre Dame sits atop the current board at a 13c best price on Polymarket, reading as about a 13 percent raw chance. Oregon's 11c on Kalshi reads near 11 percent. Those cents are the market's live probability estimates, updated as contracts change hands.
Why do the numbers add up to more than 100 percent?
Add every team's raw price and the field sums past 100 percent. That surplus is the vig, also called the overround: the margin embedded in quoted prices. It is the reason raw cents overstate true probability, and the reason a de-vig step matters.
De-vigging rescales every contract proportionally so the field totals a clean 100 percent. After that adjustment, Ohio State's 12c raw price settles to an 11.1 percent fair value, and Oregon's 11c settles to 10.3 percent. The order rarely changes, but the levels tighten toward honest probabilities.
The consensus approach pulls prices from more than one venue, here Polymarket and Kalshi, and blends them before stripping the vig. A multi-venue read smooths out any single book's skew and produces a steadier fair value.
Fair value versus best price: reading the gap
Two numbers matter per contract. Best price is the cheapest quote across venues. Fair value is the de-vigged model probability. Comparing them is how a raw price becomes a read.
When best price sits below fair value, the contract is favorable on the model's math. When it sits above, the price is rich. Texas is the clean example of the second case: an 11c best price on Polymarket against a 9.6 percent fair value, so the market is asking more than the model thinks the outcome is worth.
Indiana runs the other way, with a 9c best price against an 8.4 percent fair value, a tighter spread that reads closer to fair. The lesson is that a low absolute price is not the signal; the distance to fair value is.
Where the title board's prices stand
The top of the board is compressed. Notre Dame leads on fair value at 11.2 percent, with Ohio State at 11.1 percent and Oregon at 10.3 percent close behind. Texas at 9.6 percent and Georgia at 9.1 percent fill out a tight lead group, and Indiana at 8.4 percent is not far off.
Cheapest venue varies by team, which is why a best-price scan pays. Notre Dame, Texas, Miami and LSU show their best prices on Polymarket; Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia and Indiana show theirs on Kalshi. New traders comparing venues can note the standing promos, Polymarket TGSWC and Kalshi FADE, though venue choice should follow the price, not the code.
Putting the method to work
The full read runs in three steps: convert the price in cents to a raw probability, de-vig the field to fair value, then compare best price to that fair value. Anything trading below its fair value reads favorable; anything above reads rich.
Best prices sit a touch above fair value across most of the board, which is the vig showing up at the contract level. Notre Dame's 13c against 11.2 percent and Ohio State's 12c against 11.1 percent both carry that small premium. The chart below lines the best prices up for a quick scan.
Prices and the model can both be wrong, and a favorable read is a probability statement, not a guarantee. The point is not to chase a single number but to know exactly what a price is claiming before deciding whether the model agrees.
