The model fades Ohio State hardest right now. At 13c on Polymarket, the Buckeyes' national-title contract trades roughly two points above the model's 11% fair value, the widest premium on the current board.
The rest of the fade list runs through the top of the market. LSU, Miami, Indiana and Notre Dame each sit a point or more above their modeled probability. Texas is the rare favorite priced at or below fair, which is where value actually sits.
Which title contracts trade above fair value?
A fade is simply a contract whose best available price sits above the model's fair value. Converting cents to implied probability (13c reads as roughly 13%), the gaps cluster at the top of the board rather than in the longshot tier.
Ohio State leads at 13c versus 11% fair, a premium near two points. Notre Dame (12c versus 10.9%), LSU (10c versus 8.5%), Indiana (10c versus 8.9%) and Miami (9c versus 7.8%) each carry a smaller but real markup. None is a large edge alone, but the direction is consistent: the market rounds favorites up.
Even the cheapest quote on Ohio State, Polymarket's 13c, still tops fair value, which is what makes it the cleanest fade on the board.
Why do favorites carry the fattest premium?
Two forces explain the markup. First, title boards carry overround: summed across every team, contract prices add to more than 100%, so the field as a whole trades rich and the heaviest names absorb the most of it. Second, favorites attract the most flow, and price tends to firm where attention concentrates.
The venue split reinforces it. Polymarket holds the best price on Ohio State, LSU, Miami and Texas; Kalshi holds Notre Dame, Oregon, Indiana and Georgia. The fade signal survives even after taking the cheapest quote across both books, which is the relevant test.
Where does value still sit?
Texas is the counterpoint. Its 7c price on Polymarket sits fractionally below the model's 7.1% fair value, the only top-eight team not trading at a premium.
Oregon at 11c against 10.9% and Georgia at 8c against 7.7% are close enough to fair to read as neutral rather than fades. Below them, Oklahoma (3c versus 2.8%), USC (3c versus 2.7%) and Alabama (2c versus 1.9%) round in the same direction the favorites do, just at a smaller absolute cost.
The chart below lines up the model's fair value across the top of the board, where the price premiums are being applied.
How to read these fades
Fading a contract means selling or avoiding it at the current price, not buying the premium. The edges here are small, one to two points, so they matter most in aggregate or as a filter for which side of a contract to take. A one-point overprice on a single favorite is noise; the same tilt across five of the top six names is a pattern.
Both books that set these prices run standing offers: Polymarket's TGSWC (deposit $20, get a $50 trading bonus) and Kalshi's FADE (trade $25, get up to $500). Prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice.
