Conference-title value tracks the national-title board almost one for one this season, and that board reads top-heavy: Texas leads the SEC at 13.3% fair value, Ohio State fronts a thin Big Ten at 11%, and Miami stands alone atop the ACC at 10.3%. The cleanest edges sit with Georgia and Indiana, the two contenders whose prices have not climbed past the model's fair value.
Conference contracts trade thinner than the national market, so the national-title fair value is used here as the proxy for league strength. A team's path to a conference crown runs through the same power ratings that price its title odds, which is why the ordering rarely diverges.
Which conference carries the most title equity at the top?
The SEC sits deepest. Texas (13.3%) and Georgia (11.1%) give the league two of the four richest fair values on the board, with LSU adding 8.5% behind them. That is three credible paths to a conference title concentrated in one bracket, which tends to depress each individual contract because the field splits the probability.
The Big Ten is the opposite shape: top-heavy and then a cliff. Ohio State leads at 11%, Indiana follows at 7.5%, and Oregon (3.7%) and USC (2.1%) trail well back. When one team dominates a league's equity, its conference price should track its title price closely, since winning the league is most of the story on the way to a national run.
The ACC narrows to a single name. Miami at 10.3% is the only ACC team carrying meaningful title equity on this board, which frames its conference market as close to a binary on the Hurricanes clearing the field.
Where does the model see conference-title value?
Value shows up where price sits at or below fair value. Georgia trades 10c on Kalshi against 11.1% fair, and Indiana trades 7c on Polymarket against 7.5% fair. Both are contracts the market has not marked up, which is rare on a board where most favorites carry a premium.
The contrast is Miami at 12c on Polymarket against 10.3% fair, and Ohio State at 12c on Kalshi against 11% fair: both price above the model. Texas, the board leader, is richest of all at 15c against 13.3% fair, so the SEC favorite is the one the market charges the most to hold.
Why Notre Dame distorts the conference read
Notre Dame carries 11.4% title fair value, second only to Texas, yet it has no conference-title market because it plays football as an independent. That equity lives entirely on the national board and priced 13c on Kalshi.
The effect is that one of the strongest contenders never appears in any league bracket, leaving the Big Ten and ACC fields marginally clearer than the raw national numbers suggest. A trader mapping title equity to conference contracts has to set the Irish aside rather than slot them anywhere.
Cheapest venue to trade each leader
Venue matters because the cheapest entry is split. Kalshi holds the best price on most favorites: Texas at 15c, Georgia at 10c, Ohio State at 12c, and LSU at 9c. Polymarket owns the tail and a couple of mid-board names, including Indiana at 7c and Miami at 12c.
For a Big Ten value read, Indiana at 7c on Polymarket is the contract trading closest to fair. For the SEC, Georgia at 10c on Kalshi is the least-taxed of the credible contenders. New Polymarket accounts can use code TGSWC (deposit $20, get a $50 trading bonus); Kalshi's code is FADE (trade $25, get up to $500).
Prices and the model can both be wrong, and conference contracts carry less liquidity than the national market, so entry and exit are thinner. The figures here are a read on relative value, not a directive.
