Redshirt
Analysis

Kalshi vs Polymarket: The CFB Best-Price Scorecard

Kalshi vs Polymarket for college football prices: Kalshi posts the best price on 8 of 12 national title contracts, but Polymarket owns the tail. Here is the split.

By The Model Desk · 2026-09-23
Analysis
vsvsvs
Key takeaways
  • Kalshi posts the best price on 8 of the 12 national title contracts tracked, including every top-five favorite.
  • Polymarket holds the best price on four contracts: Indiana (10c), LSU (5c), Alabama (1c) and USC (2c).
  • Texas tops the Kalshi board at 13c, a shade above its 12.3% model fair value.
  • Florida shows the widest discount to fair on the board, priced 2c on Kalshi against a 4.3% fair value.
  • Cheapest venue and best value diverge: Kalshi wins the favorites, but its top prices sit at or above fair.

Neither venue wins outright. For the 2026 national title board, Kalshi posts the best available price on 8 of the 12 contracts tracked, including every top-five favorite, while Polymarket owns the other four: Indiana, LSU, Alabama and USC. The short answer is that the cheapest venue depends on where a team sits on the board, not on the platform itself.

Which venue has the cheapest CFB prices?

The tally is 8 to 4 in Kalshi's favor across the tracked title market. Kalshi carries the best price on Texas (13c), Georgia (12c), Ohio State (12c), Notre Dame (12c), Miami (11c), Oregon (4c), Ole Miss (6c) and Florida (2c). Polymarket answers with Indiana (10c), LSU (5c), Alabama (1c) and USC (2c).

The pattern is clean: Kalshi concentrates its edge at the top and in the mid-tier favorites, while Polymarket surfaces the cheapest entry on select longshots and one upper-mid contract in Indiana. A trader building a full-board position would touch both venues rather than pick one.

Where does Kalshi win: the favorites

The top of the board is Kalshi territory. Texas leads at 13c, followed by a cluster of 12c contracts in Georgia, Ohio State and Notre Dame, then Miami at 11c. Every contender priced in double-digit cents lists cheapest on Kalshi.

That matters because favorites carry the most liquidity and the tightest spreads, so the venue that owns the best price at the top is doing the heavy lifting on entry cost for the contracts most traders actually size up.

Best national title price by team
Texas (K)13c
Georgia (K)12c
Ohio State (K)12c
Notre Dame (K)12c
Miami (K)11c
Indiana (P)10c

Where Polymarket wins: the tail

Polymarket's edge shows up further down the board. It holds the best price on Indiana at 10c, LSU at 5c, and the two deep longshots, Alabama at 1c and USC at 2c. Those are thinner markets where a single venue's book can undercut the other.

For a trader hunting cheap optionality on lower-probability outcomes, Polymarket is the first stop on this board. The Polymarket promo (code TGSWC: deposit $20, get a $50 trading bonus) lowers the cost of testing those tail positions, though a bonus never changes whether the price beats fair.

Cheapest price is not the same as best value

Best price sets the entry cost; value is price against the model's fair value. Texas is cheapest on Kalshi at 13c, but that sits above its 12.3% fair value, so the top favorite is a slight fade even at the best venue. The same holds across the 12c cluster, where price sits at or just over fair.

The sharper reads are lower down. Florida is priced 2c on Kalshi against a 4.3% fair value, the widest discount to fair on the board. Oregon at 4c matches its 4.3% fair value almost exactly. So the venue that wins on raw price does not always deliver the value; on Florida, Kalshi delivers both.

Best price vs model fair value: Florida and Oregon
Florida price2%
Florida fair4.3%
Oregon price4%
Oregon fair4.3%

How to read the venue split as a trader

The practical takeaway is to shop both books. Kalshi is the default for the favorites and mid-tier, Polymarket for the longshots and Indiana, and the consensus fair value is the check on whether any of those best prices is actually a discount.

On this board, the best price and the best value only line up cleanly at the bottom, where Florida trades under fair on Kalshi. At the top, the cheapest venue still leaves the favorites priced at or above the model. Prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice; the venue split simply shows where entry cost is lowest before value is judged.

TeamsTexasGeorgiaNotre DameIndianaLSUFlorida
Advertisement
Kalshi ad

Frequently asked questions

Which is cheaper for college football futures, Kalshi or Polymarket?

On the current national title board, Kalshi holds the best price on 8 of 12 contracts, mostly the favorites. Polymarket is cheapest on four contracts, concentrated in the tail such as LSU, Alabama and USC.

Does Kalshi or Polymarket have better odds on Texas?

Kalshi has the better Texas price at 13c, versus a 12.3% model fair value. Texas is the highest-priced contract on the board.

Why do Kalshi and Polymarket prices differ on the same team?

The two venues run separate order books, liquidity pools and trader bases, so quotes drift apart. The consensus fair value de-vigs across both to estimate a cleaner probability.

Does the cheapest price mean the best trade?

No. The cheapest venue only sets the entry cost; value depends on price versus fair. Florida at 2c sits below its 4.3% fair value, while Texas at 13c sits above its 12.3% fair value.

About the author
The Model Desk

The Redshirt Analytics modeling team prices every college football futures contract and tracks the gaps between fair value and live market prices on Kalshi, Polymarket and ProphetX.