Make-the-playoff markets point to five contenders trading cheap: Notre Dame, Ohio State, LSU, Alabama and Oregon each carry a best price at or below the model's national-title fair value. Notre Dame is the sharpest read, with a 13c contract on Kalshi sitting under a 13.3% fair value.
The common thread is simple. Each of the five has a cheapest venue that prices title equity no higher than the model's estimate, which is the signature of an underpriced contender rather than one the market has already bid up.
Why do national-title prices read as make-the-playoff value?
A national champion has to reach the playoff first, so a team's title price functions as a floor on its make-the-playoff probability. If a contract already undercuts the model's title fair value, the implied playoff path underneath it is cheaper still.
That makes the title board a clean screen for playoff value. Where the best available price trails fair value, the market is paying less than the model's estimate for title equity, and by extension for the deeper probability that the team simply makes the field.
The model's fair value is the de-vigged consensus across venues; the best price is the single cheapest quote available to trade. When the second number sits below the first, the gap is the edge.
Which contenders trade below fair value?
Notre Dame and Ohio State anchor the group at the top of the board. Notre Dame prices 13c against a 13.3% fair value, and Ohio State prices 13c against 13.1%, both cheapest on Kalshi. In each case the quote sits at or just under the model's number.
The mid-board adds LSU at 4c versus a 4.3% fair value and Alabama at 4c versus 4.1%, both on Polymarket. Oregon rounds out the set at 2c on Kalshi against a 2.2% fair value, a longshot whose price still trails the model.
None of these are large gaps in absolute terms, but direction matters: every one of the five is priced no richer than fair value, which separates them from the contenders trading at a premium.
Where do the best prices live by venue?
Venue selection carries the edge here. Notre Dame, Ohio State and Oregon all price cheapest on Kalshi, at 13c, 13c and 2c respectively. LSU and Alabama both bottom out at 4c on Polymarket.
The split underlines why cross-venue shopping matters: the de-vigged consensus is built from every source, but the cheapest contract to trade can sit on either exchange depending on the team. Traders new to the venues can note the standing promos, Kalshi's FADE (trade $25, get up to $500) and Polymarket's TGSWC (deposit $20, get a $50 trading bonus), though the pricing read stands on its own.
The takeaway is that the underpriced set is not concentrated on one book. It is spread across Kalshi and Polymarket, which is where the best-price comparison earns its keep.
Which contenders sit on the overpriced side?
For contrast, the top of the board also holds the teams the market has bid past fair value. Georgia prices 16c against a 15.5% fair value, Miami 15c against 14.1%, and Ole Miss 5c against 3.5%. Each best price runs above the model.
That is the mirror image of the underpriced screen: where price leads fair value, the implied make-the-playoff path is being paid for at a premium. The model reads Georgia and Miami as the richest of the front-runners.
Prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice. But the structure is clear: the value in the make-the-playoff read sits with the five contenders priced at or under fair value, not with the names the market has already chased.
