A college football futures price in cents is a direct read on implied probability: a contract trading at 14c prices roughly a 14% chance of the outcome. That is the entire starting point. The harder step is recognizing that raw prices across a market sum to more than 100%, so each number has to be scaled down before it reports a clean probability the model calls fair value.
What does a price in cents actually mean?
A binary futures contract settles at 100c if the outcome happens and 0c if it does not. So the current price is the market's estimate of that probability, expressed in cents. Texas at 14c on Kalshi is the market saying, in effect, about a 14% chance to win the national title. Notre Dame at 12c implies about 12%.
This mapping is linear and requires no formula beyond moving the decimal point. The price is the probability. The complication is not the conversion itself; it is that a single market lists many mutually exclusive outcomes, and their raw prices do not behave like a tidy probability distribution.
Why do the implied odds add up to more than 100%?
Add every national-title price together and the total clears 100%. That excess is the overround, the margin baked into quoted prices. It exists because venues and liquidity providers price a cushion on both sides of each contract, and because the favorite-plus-every-longshot stack always inflates the sum.
De-vigging removes that cushion. The model scales each team's raw implied probability down proportionally so the field sums back to 100%, producing fair value. That is why Ohio State can show a 14c best price, implying 14% raw, while its de-vigged fair value sits at 12.7%. The cents figure is the quote; the fair value is the estimate after the margin is stripped out.
Fair value versus best price across the title board
The consensus fair value is the number to anchor on. Georgia tops the board at 13.7%, with Ohio State and Texas tied at 12.7% and Notre Dame at 10.5%. Miami, Alabama, and Indiana fill the next tier between 6.9% and 8.8%.
Best price is a separate question: it is the cheapest venue to acquire the contract. Georgia's best price is 16c on Polymarket, Texas is 14c on Kalshi, and Ole Miss is 3c on Kalshi. A reader comparing the two columns is really comparing what the market charges against what the model thinks the outcome is worth.
Where the signal lives
The trading signal is the gap between price and fair value, not the headline cents figure. When a best price in cents sits above the de-vigged fair value, the contract is priced richer than the model's estimate; when it sits below, the model sees room. Across the current title board, best prices generally sit a point or two over fair value, which is the overround showing through at the venue level.
That spread is also why venue matters. Polymarket holds the best price on Georgia, Ohio State, Miami, Alabama, and Indiana, while Kalshi holds Texas, Notre Dame, and Ole Miss. Sourcing the cheapest contract shrinks the gap a reader pays over fair value. For context, Polymarket's promo code TGSWC adds a $50 trading bonus on a $20 deposit, and Kalshi's FADE runs up to $500 on $25 traded.
None of this guarantees an outcome. Prices move on liquidity and news, the model can be wrong, and a de-vigged fair value is an estimate, not a settlement. The discipline is simply to read the cents as probability, strip the margin, and then judge each contract against the number that remains.
