The model's clearest conference reads this season sit in three places: the SEC's two-horse top (Georgia at 13.6% national-title fair value, Texas at 12.7%), the Big Ten funneling through Ohio State at 12.8%, and the ACC running almost entirely through Miami at 10.1%. Conference-title odds are not broken out on the board here, so the national-title fair values stand in as the cleanest public measure of how concentrated each league's title race is.
Read that way, the exercise is less about one cheap contract and more about where probability pools inside a conference. The deeper and more top-heavy a league looks on the title board, the more a conference-title market would concentrate its implied price on one or two names.
Which conference does the model see as the deepest race?
The SEC. Six teams carry a national-title fair value: Georgia (13.6%), Texas (12.7%), Alabama (7.3%), LSU (4.3%), Ole Miss (1.8%) and Florida (1.7%). No other conference places more than three teams on the board, which is why the SEC's championship picture reads as two favorites over a live second tier rather than a single runaway.
Georgia and Texas sit within a point of each other at the top, and Alabama's 7.3% keeps a third name in range. That spread is the signal: value in an SEC title market would hinge on whether the second tier (Alabama, LSU) is priced closer to the two leaders than the title board implies.
Georgia is best priced 16c on Polymarket and Texas 14c on Kalshi. Both trade a touch above their national-title fair value, so the venue split matters more than any outright edge.
Why does the Big Ten title run through Ohio State?
Ohio State anchors the Big Ten at 12.8% national-title fair value, with Indiana (6.8%) and Oregon (4%) the only other league teams on the board. That is a top-heavy shape: one favorite at nearly double the fair value of its nearest conference rival, then a gap.
Indiana's 6.8% is the number that defines Big Ten value. If a conference-title market prices Indiana as a clear second behind Ohio State, the title board supports that read; Oregon at 4% sits a step further back. Ohio State is best priced 14c on Polymarket and Indiana 8c on Polymarket.
The contrast with the SEC is the point. The Big Ten pools probability on a single name, while the SEC splits it across two at the top and a live chase pack.
Where does the ACC and the independent picture leave value?
The ACC runs through Miami alone. Miami carries a 10.1% national-title fair value, best priced 11c on Kalshi, and no other ACC team registers on the board. In a conference-title market that concentration would make Miami the heavy implied favorite, with the value question being how steeply everything behind it is discounted.
Notre Dame complicates any league-by-league map. Its 9.9% fair value is the fourth-highest on the board, yet the program plays as an independent, so that probability never flows into a conference-title contract. The national-title market is the only futures read on the Irish, best priced 12c on Polymarket.
The Big 12 barely appears: Texas Tech is the lone entry at 0.8% fair value, priced 0c on Polymarket. That 0c mark reflects thin interest at the tail rather than a genuine discount, and it is the only listed name whose price sits below the model's fair value.
What the price-to-fair gap says about conference contracts
Across the board, nearly every contender trades at or above its national-title fair value. Georgia's 16c sits above 13.6%, Notre Dame's 12c above 9.9%, Miami's 11c above 10.1%. That is the normal shape of a futures market carrying vig, and it means conference-title value is unlikely to come from a mispriced favorite.
The more useful edge is venue. The best price lives on Polymarket for Georgia, Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, LSU, Alabama and Notre Dame, while Kalshi holds the best mark on Texas and Miami. Traders comparing league markets should route each name to its cheapest listed venue rather than assume one exchange owns the board.
Prices and the model can both be wrong, and these figures are national-title fair values standing in for conference strength, not conference-title odds. For those tracking the splits, Polymarket's sign-up code is TGSWC and Kalshi's is FADE. None of this is financial advice.
