The model fades the top of the college football national-title market right now. Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas, Ohio State and Miami all trade above fair value even at their cheapest venue, with Georgia carrying the widest gap: 17c on Polymarket against a 14.7% model estimate.
A fade here is narrow and specific. It does not call a champion; it flags contracts whose best price sits above the model's fair value, meaning the market is paying up for probability the model does not see.
Which national-title favorites does the model fade?
Five names lead the fade list. Georgia prices at 17c versus 14.7% fair value. Notre Dame sits at 13c against 10.9%. Texas trades 14c on a 12.3% estimate, Ohio State 14c on 12.5%, and Miami 10c on 8.6%. Ole Miss rounds out the group at 3c on Kalshi versus a 1.8% fair value.
The pattern is consistent across the shortlist: the price floor, even at the cheapest venue, clears the model's number. That is the signature of a market paying a premium on recognizable favorites rather than offering a discount.
Alabama and Indiana are effectively priced at fair, 4c on 3.9% and 6c on 5.6% respectively, so the model takes no strong stance there.
How big is the gap between price and fair value?
The fade is clearest when best price and fair value sit side by side. Georgia and Notre Dame show the largest separation; Miami and Ole Miss are thinner but still on the expensive side of the ledger.
None of these gaps is large in absolute terms, which is expected near the top of a title board where liquidity is deepest and pricing is tightest. The edges live in the direction of the gap, not its size.
Where does price actually undercut the model?
Florida is the counterexample. Its best price is 5c on Kalshi against a 5.7% model fair value, the only favorite in this group where the price sits under the model rather than over it.
That single reading reframes the board. The model is not fading the entire market; it is fading the most heavily trafficked favorites while leaving one SEC name priced slightly cheap. The split venue picture matters too: Polymarket holds the best price on most of the fade list, while Florida and Ole Miss price cheapest on Kalshi.
What a fade means for a trader
A fade is a read on value, not a verdict on the season. When the cheapest contract prices above fair value, the model sees no buying edge at that number; it says nothing about whether Georgia or Texas lifts the trophy.
Venue discipline is the practical takeaway. The same team can carry a different best price across Polymarket, Kalshi and ProphetX, and the consensus fair value only matters relative to the lowest price available. New accounts can map the board with the standing promos, Polymarket TGSWC or Kalshi FADE, before deciding where a price clears the model.
Prices and the model can both be wrong, and none of this is financial advice. The discipline is simply to compare the cheapest price against fair value and act only when the price trails the model, not when it leads it.
