Redshirt
Scout report

South Carolina 2026 outlook

The market gives South Carolina a 0.8% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%3%5%8%10%Jan 22Mar 27Jun 2Jul 13Aug 11Sep 6Sep 20

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.13#26
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.9#34
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1697
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.244.3#18
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.833
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.63%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.02
#32 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
38%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.3
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.05
#25 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
42%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
16%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
336.8
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+4
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsKent StateSep 5, 202699%Matchup
W2vsTowsonSep 12, 2026Not rated
W3vsMississippi StateSep 19, 202658%Matchup
W4@AlabamaSep 26, 202629%Matchup
W5vsKentuckyOct 3, 202671%Matchup
W6@FloridaOct 10, 202633%Matchup
W8vsTennesseeOct 24, 202639%Matchup
W9@OklahomaOct 31, 202634%Matchup
W10vsTexas A&MNov 7, 202643%Matchup
W11@ArkansasNov 14, 202675%Matchup
W12vsGeorgiaNov 21, 202622%Matchup
W13@ClemsonNov 28, 202658%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
LaNorris Sellers
2437 yds, 13 TD
Rushing
LaNorris Sellers
270 yds, 5 TD
Receiving
Nyck Harbor
30 rec, 618 yds
Tackles
Justin Okoronkwo
63 tot, 0 sk
Full roster (104)
0Fred JohnsonLB1Gerald KilgoreDB3Mazeo Bennett Jr.WR3Kelvin HunterDB4Isaiah AugustaveRB6Donovan MurphWR7Shawn MurphyLB8Nyck HarborWR8Judge CollierDB9David BuceyDB10Christian ClarkRB12Quay'sheed ScottDB13Malik ClarkWR13Tomiwa DurojaiyeDL14Max KelleyPK15Lucian Anderson IIIQB15Donovan DardenLB16LaNorris SellersQB16Jalewis SolomonDB17Jayden SellersWR17Justin OkoronkwoLB18Jaquel HolmanDB19Damarcus LeachDB22Jawarn HowellRB22Jaquavious DoddDE24Mason LovePK27Drew CollinsDE27Upton BellenfantPK28Matt FullerRB33Troy PikesDT34Jamian Risher Jr.LB39Caleb HerringDE40Anthony AddisonDE44Maurice Brown IITE52Hank PurvisOL72Shed Sarratt Jr.OL80Max DragTE83DJ BlackWR87Brady HuntTE92Ethan SanchezPK95Christian IngramDL97Kelby CollinsDL99Gabriel Brownlow-DindyDLEthan JohnsonDBJordan ThomasDLSam DixonRBNitro TuggleWR0Lex CyrusWR5Kendall Daniels Jr.DB7Jordon GidronWR9Jayden GibsonWR11Landon DuckworthQB14J'Zavien CurrenceDB18Stone FurreyWR19Brandon CunninghamQB20Josh SmithLB21Jabree ColemanRB21Chris HatfieldDB23Sequel PattersonWR23Triston LewisDB24Keenan BrittLB25Jimmy FrancisQB25Zahbari SandyDB26Isaiah McClaryDB28Kosci BarnesDB29Cedric CisseDB30Andrew HarrisLB31Neil Salvage IIIRB32A.J. HollowayLB32Malik OrsanPK35Ethan KellumRB35Jackson BurgerDB36Landon KurtzDB41Kobby Sakyi-PrahDE43Tony BrownDB44KJ JohnsonDB50Carter MillerOL51Ebubedike NnabugwuOL53Emmet RhoadesLS54Ashton MozoneOL55Adedamola AjidahunOL57Kyler FarrowLS58Markee AndersonOL59Matthew OhLS60Anthony BaxterOL62Nolan HayOL64Neff GiwaOL65Jacarrius PeakOL65Noah ClarkDL67Vincent ChenOL69Emmanuel Kojo PokuOL70Jake ReckerOL71Blake FranksOL75Dayne ArnettOL76Zyon GuilesOL77Darius GrayOL78Seth SmithOL79Armando NievesOL81Reno RoehmTE82Jackson ReppWR84Charly MullalyWR85Caden RamseyTE90Aiden HarrisDLEmmanuel PokuIOL
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
12+ wins10%
11+ wins2%
10+ wins7%
9+ wins10%
8+ wins17%
7+ wins32%
6+ wins56%
5+ wins73%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade South Carolina win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are South Carolina's playoff odds in 2026?

South Carolina make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 6.4% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the SEC in 0.8%, and win the national title in 0.4%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will South Carolina win in 2026?

The simulation projects South Carolina at 6.2 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are South Carolina's national title odds?

South Carolina have a 0.8% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Kalshi.

How good are South Carolina by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, South Carolina rank #26 overall (offense #32, defense #25).

Where can I trade South Carolina markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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