Redshirt
Scout report

Penn State 2026 outlook

The market gives Penn State a 1.2% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%3%5%8%10%Jan 22Mar 30May 17Jun 24Jul 29Aug 30Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.19.1#12
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.15.9#16
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1954
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.255.4#15
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.910
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.56%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.18
#14 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
46%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.19
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.03
#14 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
41%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
16%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
362
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+3
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsMarshallSep 5, 202698%Matchup
W2@TempleSep 12, 202692%Matchup
W3vsBuffaloSep 19, 202699%Matchup
W4vsWisconsinSep 26, 202684%Matchup
W5@NorthwesternOct 3, 202671%Matchup
W6vsUSCOct 10, 202650%Matchup
W7@MichiganOct 17, 202654%Matchup
W9vsPurdueOct 31, 202692%Matchup
W10@WashingtonNov 7, 202659%Matchup
W11vsMinnesotaNov 14, 202683%Matchup
W12vsRutgersNov 21, 202693%Matchup
W13@MarylandNov 28, 202670%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Rocco Becht
2565 yds, 16 TD
Rushing
Carson Hansen
950 yds, 6 TD
Receiving
Brett Eskildsen
30 rec, 526 yds
Tackles
Kooper Ebel
77 tot, 1 sk
Full roster (104)
0Chase SowellWR0Jahmir JosephCB1James PeoplesRB1Ikenna EzeoguDE2Zay RobinsonWR2Audavion CollinsCB3Rocco BechtQB3Jamison PattonS4Brett EskildsenWR4Jeremiah CooperS5Daryus DixsonCB6Koby HowardWR7Alex ManskeQB8Kooper EbelLB9Cael BrezinaLB10Caleb BaconLB13Tony RojasLB15Joshua JohnsonCB18Benjamin BrahmerTE19Yvan KemajouDE21Carson HansenRB24Ibn McDanielsS25Quinton Martin Jr.RB25Alex TatschLB27Omarion DavisS31Marcus Neal Jr.S33Alexander McPhersonDE34Chris FileppoLB39Ty BlandingDT56Alijah CarnellDT80Cooper AlexanderTE84Gabe BurkleTE87Andrew RappleyeaTE91Armstrong NnodimDT92Siale TaupakiDT94Ryan BarkerPK98Matthew ParkerPKDallas VakalahiDTKeanu WilliamsDT7Peter GonzalezWR8Karon BrookinsWR9Amarion JacksonWR10Connor BarryQB11Lyrick SamuelWR11LaVar Arrington IIDE12Kase EvansQB12Xxavier ThomasCB13Hank LustigWR14Peyton FalzoneQB15Keith Jones Jr.WR16Donte NastasiCB18Max GranvilleDE19Jack LambertQB20Tyrell ChatmanCB26Cam SmithLB29D'Antae SheffeyRB29Hunter SowellCB30Christian AskewS31Logan CunninghamWR32John KlostermanLB35Tyler ArmsteadCB35Blaise Sokach-MinnickLS36Amar'e GloverRB37Max HeffnerWR40Keian KaiserLB40Jake LukacLB41Jake LaVerdeS42Mason RobinsonDE43Dayshaun BurnettDE45Josh BanksLB47Aidan ProbstDE50Cooper CousinsOL51Brock RikerOL52Dominic RulliOL54Vaea IkakoulaOL55Chimdy OnohOL56Mason BandhauerOL61Liam HoranOL65Jim FitzgeraldOL67Henry BoehmeOL68Anthony DonkohOL70Trevor BuhrOL71Garrett SextonOL72Tyshon HuffOL73Caleb BrewerDT74Kuol Kuol IIOL75Pete EglitisOL76Hunter AlbrightOL77Owen AlicieneOL78Malachi GoodmanOL79Donnie HarbourOL82Ethan BlackWR83Brian KortovichTE86Bobby MearsDE88Elijah ReederDL89Finn FurmanekTE89Jackson FordDE90Liam AndrewsDT92Andrew DufaultLS94De'Andre CookDT95Cristiano RosaPK96Lucas TenbrockPNathan TiycePWill TompkinsOL
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
12+ wins16%
11+ wins30%
10+ wins51%
9+ wins75%
8+ wins86%
7+ wins92%
6+ wins94%
5+ wins99%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Penn State win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Penn State's playoff odds in 2026?

Penn State make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 37.4% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Big Ten in 11%, and win the national title in 2.8%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Penn State win in 2026?

The simulation projects Penn State at 9 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Penn State's national title odds?

Penn State have a 1.2% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 2% on Kalshi.

How good are Penn State by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Penn State rank #12 overall (offense #14, defense #14).

Where can I trade Penn State markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

Trade Penn State on Kalshi

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