Redshirt
Scout report

Utah 2026 outlook

The market gives Utah a 0.8% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%3%5%8%10%Jan 23Mar 16Jun 22Aug 2Aug 30Sep 14Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.17#19
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.20.1#8
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1976
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.207.9#40
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.708
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.14%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.31
#14 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
50%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.24
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0
#21 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
38%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
17%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
483.2
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+6
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsIdahoSep 4, 2026Not rated
W2vsArkansasSep 13, 202688%Matchup
W3vsUtah StateSep 19, 202696%Matchup
W4@Iowa StateSep 26, 202670%Matchup
W6vsKansasOct 10, 202684%Matchup
W7@ColoradoOct 17, 202683%Matchup
W8vsHoustonOct 24, 202670%Matchup
W9@CincinnatiOct 31, 202666%Matchup
W10vsBYUNov 7, 202655%Matchup
W11@ArizonaNov 14, 202661%Matchup
W12@TCUNov 21, 202658%Matchup
W13vsWest VirginiaNov 28, 202683%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Devon Dampier
2490 yds, 24 TD
Rushing
Wayshawn Parker
981 yds, 6 TD
Receiving
Braden Pegan
60 rec, 925 yds
Tackles
Johnathan Hall
63 tot, 2.5 sk
Full roster (102)
0Kyri ShoelsWR0Cyrus PoluLB1Wayshawn ParkerRB2Rock CaldwellCB3Nate JohnsonRB4Devon DampierQB4JC HartCB5Daniel BrayRB5James Chenault Jr.CB6Nate RitchieS7Braden PeganWR7Johnathan HallLB8Ethan DayDE9Elijah DavisCB10Hunter AndrewsTE10Trey ReynoldsLB11Ricky JohnsonWR11Elijah ReedCB12Larry SimmonsWR14Brandon RoseQB15Byrd FicklinQB15Lance HoltzclawDE17Dillon CurtisPK18Tobias MerriweatherWR20Mateaki HeluRB23Jackson BenneeS25Steve Chavez-SotoRB33Kana'i LopesTE40Paul FitzgeraldDE45Pupu SepulonaDT51Karson KaufusiDT53Brock FonoimoanaLB83Elijah EllissLB86Will MonneyTE90Jireh MoeDT92Orion PhillipsP93Kash DillonDE97Lucas SamsulaDTJamal WallaceDT1Rabbit EvansS8Mana CarvalhoWR9Kane ArcherQB12Davis AndrewsS13Michael JohnsonQB13Nick BrownCB13Nick BrownCB14Cole StandageS18Earl ParkerCB20King LongCB25Manny FullerS26LaMarcus BellRB27Brandon HolmesCB28Anthony HernandezRB28Luke BryantS29Major HinchenCB30Matt ClarkWR31Jack EvansS32Josh SovereignS34Ashton OlevaoS35Preston PittsLB37Peyton RiceWR38Tommy NelsonS39Junior CoughlinWR41LaGary MitchellLB43Grady MarekoLB44Sione MotuapuakaTE46Teague MatthewsTE46Mauka BernardDE47Jared FredrickDE48Alex ClowardDE52Jed JudkinsLB54Milz AsiataOL54Tayson ReidLB55Kelvin ObotOL56Isaiah KemaOL57Moses SparksOL57Stanley RaassDT58Fa SialeDE61Cyrus NielsenOL62Solatoa Moea'iOL63Devin EntsmingerOL64Reece ParmenterOL65Logan CastorLS66Will FryOL67Soren ShinofieldOL70Mataalii BenjaminOL71Rowdy PearceOL72Isaiah GarciaOL73Cedric JeffersonOL74Keith OlsonOL75Roger AldermanOL77Nick HallockOL79Alex HarrisonOL80Bryson BakerWR81Bear FisherTE82Max AusmusWR85Broderick ReddenTE88Tanner CragunPK89Noah BenneeTE92Nicholas IgweDE96Dilan BattleDTMarcus WimberlyS
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
12+ wins14%
11+ wins28%
10+ wins56%
9+ wins69%
8+ wins88%
7+ wins93%
6+ wins96%
5+ wins93%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Utah win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Utah's playoff odds in 2026?

Utah make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 30.7% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Big 12 in 15.4%, and win the national title in 1.9%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Utah win in 2026?

The simulation projects Utah at 8.7 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Utah's national title odds?

Utah have a 0.8% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Kalshi.

How good are Utah by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Utah rank #19 overall (offense #14, defense #21).

Where can I trade Utah markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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