Scout report
Liberty 2026 outlook
Liberty are not currently priced in the title market, but here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.
Outlook
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.-3#82
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.-10.7#104
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1441
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.160.8#86
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.599
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.30%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.09
#76 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
44%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.18
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.14
#88 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
42%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
13%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
388.5
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
-7
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W2vsSep 12, 2026Not rated
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Full roster (102)
0RB0S1WR1LB2WR2CB3WR4RB4LB5QB5CB6RB6LB7RB7S9WR9LB10WR10S11RB13QB14TE15QB15DL16WR18DL21CB22LB23CB26RB28CB29RB30DB33LB38LB44DL48TE56DL66OL87TE88DL94DL97DLS8WR11DL12WR12CB13S14CB16CB17TE17S18QB19WR20CB25S26S27WR28WR29S34LB35DB36S39PK40DL41LS42PK43LB45LS49PK50DL51OL52OL53OL53DL55DL58OL59OL60OL61OL62OL63OL65OL70OL72OL73OL76OL77OL78OL81WR84TE85TE86PK89WR91DL92DL95DB98DL98PK99DLEDGE
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FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What are Liberty's playoff odds in 2026?
Liberty make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 3% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the C-USA in 26.9%, and win the national title in 0%. The simulation re-runs daily.
How many games will Liberty win in 2026?
The simulation projects Liberty at 8 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.
How good are Liberty by the numbers?
In 2026 SP+, Liberty rank #82 overall (offense #76, defense #88).
Where can I trade Liberty markets?
On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.
Trade Liberty on Polymarket
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