Redshirt
Scout report

Arizona State 2026 outlook

The market gives Arizona State a 0.8% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%3%5%8%10%Jan 25Feb 25Jun 13Aug 3Sep 4Sep 17Sep 20

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.5.3#55
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.6.3#44
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1609
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.203.4#44
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.739
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.65%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.04
#60 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
40%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.23
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.05
#43 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
41%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
19%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
416.6
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
-6
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsMorgan StateSep 6, 2026Not rated
W2@Texas A&MSep 12, 202618%Matchup
W3vsKansasSep 19, 202656%Matchup
W5vsBaylorOct 4, 202652%Matchup
W6vsHawai'iOct 10, 202682%Matchup
W7@Texas TechOct 17, 202617%Matchup
W8vsKansas StateOct 24, 202634%Matchup
W9@BYUOct 31, 202619%Matchup
W10vsColoradoNov 7, 202671%Matchup
W11@UCFNov 14, 202644%Matchup
W12vsOklahoma StateNov 21, 202648%Matchup
W13@ArizonaNov 28, 202634%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Cutter Boley
2160 yds, 15 TD
Rushing
Jason Brown Jr.
137 yds, 1 TD
Receiving
Omarion Miller
44 rec, 807 yds
Tackles
Owen Long
148 tot, 2 sk
Full roster (102)
0AJ IaTE0Rodney Bimage Jr.DB1Kyson BrownRB1Ashton StampsDB2Lyrik RawlsDB3Reed HarrisWR3Albert Smith IIIDE4Omarion MillerWR5Derek EusebioWR5Roman PitreDL7Raiden Vines-BrightWR7Montana WarrenDB8Cutter BoleyQB8Martell HughesLB9Jalen ThompsonDL10Clayton SmithDL12Ben Alefaio-LiliiS15Khamari AndersonTE15Joseph SmithCB16Jaren HamiltonWR16Nigel PringleDB18Jalen MossWR21Grayson RigdonRB21Kyan McDonaldDB22Jason Brown Jr.RB22Owen LongLB23Demarius RobinsonRB23Jessiah McGrewDB25Caleb ChesterDB30Zyrus FiaseuLB31Kanyon FloydP35Antoine Belgrave-ShorterDB70Jalen KlemmOL85Anthony MillerTE92Zac SwansonDL97Blazen Lono-WongDL99C.J. FiteDLEmar'rion WinstonDLChance RuckerDB2Jake FetteQB6Marquis GillisRB9Cory Butler Jr.WR12Mikey KeeneQB13Cameron DyerQB14Xavier SkowronS17Michael TollefsonWR17Joshua ShanklinDL18Ramere DavisLB19Landen MireeTE19Daquwan DunnDB24David AvitRB25Cardae MackRB26Carston KiefferPK28Davis KinneyDB29Nasir StephensCB31Zeth ThuesDB32Carson SmithPK34Oscar Aguilar Jr.LB35Nick McLartyP36Salesi ManuDL43Mason MardenLB43Grayson CurtisLS44Kristian IngmanTE44Kirt VakalahiDL45Tristan BaconLB48Lee FuimaonoLB50Marques UiniOL52Manamo'ui MutiOL53Rob LapuahoOL54Desean Bryant Jr.OL54Isaiah IosefaLB55Niniva NicholsonOL56Cortavius TisabyOL57Filiva'a LokotuiOL58Tana Alo-TupuolaOL59Maki StewartOL64Wade HeltonOL69Brent HeltonOL71Makua PuleOL72Doughless TelomaOL73Terrell KimOL74Siosaia LapuahoOL75Jarmaine MitchellOL76Champ WestbrooksOL77Matai JeffersonOL78Luke BaklenkoOL79Xander RuggeroliOL80Plas JohnsonWR81Uriah NelomsWR82Chance AblesWR84Jeremiah JohnsonWR84Landen AndersonDL87James GiggeyTE88Hayden VercherTE88Daeshon MorganDL89Harry HassmannWR90Hyrum VaeonoDL91Rashad McKenzieDL93MyKeil GardnerDL95Jeffrey MannsDL96Sinei TengeiDL98Julian HugoDL
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
9+ wins21%
8+ wins37%
7+ wins56%
6+ wins74%
5+ wins87%
4+ wins93%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Arizona State win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Arizona State's playoff odds in 2026?

Arizona State make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 2.5% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Big 12 in 2.3%, and win the national title in 0%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Arizona State win in 2026?

The simulation projects Arizona State at 6.2 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Arizona State's national title odds?

Arizona State have a 0.8% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Kalshi.

How good are Arizona State by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Arizona State rank #55 overall (offense #60, defense #43).

Where can I trade Arizona State markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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