Redshirt
Scout report

Alabama 2026 outlook

The market gives Alabama a 1.6% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%14%28%41%55%Jan 22Mar 8Apr 26Jun 3Jul 11Aug 18Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.19.5#11
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.19#10
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1857
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.298.4#3
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.994
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.43%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.17
#18 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
43%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.27
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.02
#10 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
37%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
18%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
367.7
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+7
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsEast CarolinaSep 5, 202695%Matchup
W2@KentuckySep 12, 202674%Matchup
W3vsFlorida StateSep 19, 202684%Matchup
W4vsSouth CarolinaSep 26, 202671%Matchup
W5@Mississippi StateOct 3, 202662%Matchup
W6vsGeorgiaOct 10, 202635%Matchup
W7@TennesseeOct 17, 202643%Matchup
W8vsTexas A&MOct 24, 202659%Matchup
W10@LSUNov 7, 202642%Matchup
W11@VanderbiltNov 14, 202667%Matchup
W12vsChattanoogaNov 21, 2026Not rated
W13vsAuburnNov 28, 202673%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Austin Mack
228 yds, 2 TD
Rushing
Daniel Hill
284 yds, 6 TD
Receiving
Ryan Coleman-Williams
49 rec, 689 yds
Tackles
Bray Hubbard
74 tot, 2 sk
Full roster (105)
0AK DearRB0Yhonzae PierreLB1Ryan Coleman-WilliamsWR2Zabien BrownDB3Lotzeir BrooksWR3Keon SabbDB4Daniel HillRB4Luke MetzLB5Noah RogersWR5Dijon Lee Jr.DB6Kevin RileyRB6Red MorganDB8Justin HillLB9Marshall PritchettTE10Austin MackQB12Keelon RussellQB12Zavier MinceyDB13John GazzanigaQB14Fatutoa HenryDL15Duke Johnson IILB18Bray HubbardDB19Chuck McDonald IIIDB20Khalifa KeithRB20Jah-Marien LathamLB21Dre Kirkpatrick Jr.DB22Kedrick Bingley-JonesDL23MJ ChirgwinWR23Cayden JonesLB25Steve Bolo MboumouaDL36QB ReeseLB40Josh FordTE81Kaleb EdwardsTE88Jay LindseyTE88Isaia FagaDL90Lorcan QuinnPK94Edric HillDL98Tucker CorneliusPK99Terrance GreenDLDevan ThompkinsDLDesmond UmeozuluLBCaleb WoodsonLB8Cederian MorganWR10Jireh EdwardsDB11Tayden-Evan KaawaQB11Xavier GriffinLB13EJ CrowellRB14Tyler HendersonWR16Jorden EdmondsDB17Trae'shawn BrownRB17Zyan GibsonDB19John CooperQB21Maurice Mathis Jr.WR24Amari SabbWR24Rihyael KelleyDB26Mhari JohnsonDL27Elijah MurrayWR28Carmelo O'NealDB29Jaron JacksonRB29Fredrick MooreRB30Derek MeadowsWR30Bubba OdomLB31Cooper MollisonWR31George French IIDB32Griffin HansonDB32Corey Howard Jr.DL32Alex AsparuhovP33Preston LandryWR34Zay HallLB34London HillDB37Tailan HallWR38Brody McCutcheonDB39Jake IvieLB40Torin CraigLB41Jamarion MatthewsLB42Ben JacksonWR43Camryn GableDB46Peyton FoxTE47Eli DeutschLS50Casey PoeOL54Jayvin JamesOL55Racin DelgattyOL55Alex RozierLS57Bear FretwellOL59JD MartinOL62Davis PetersonOL63Bryson CooleyOL64Michael CarrollOL65Tyrell MillerOL66Jared GrahamOL68Billy RobyOL69Baker HickmanOL71Nick BrooksOL72Ty HaywoodOL73Chris BookerOL75Ethan FieldsOL77Jackson LloydOL83Warner RossWR86Jude CasconeTE87Danny Lewis Jr.TE92Jeremiah BeamanDL93Malique FranklinDL95Leslie BlackDL95Anderson GreenPCaleb SmithDLKaden StrayhornOL
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
12+ wins15%
11+ wins24%
10+ wins47%
9+ wins63%
8+ wins81%
7+ wins89%
6+ wins92%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Alabama win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Alabama's playoff odds in 2026?

Alabama make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 32.1% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the SEC in 8.9%, and win the national title in 2.4%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Alabama win in 2026?

The simulation projects Alabama at 8.3 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Alabama's national title odds?

Alabama have a 1.6% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Polymarket.

How good are Alabama by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Alabama rank #11 overall (offense #18, defense #10).

Where can I trade Alabama markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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