Scout report
Alabama 2026 outlook
The market gives Alabama a 2.5% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.
Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Aug 8.
Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.14.8#20
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.19#10
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1857
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.298.4#3
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.994
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.43%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.21
#36 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
43%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.27
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.07
#11 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
37%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
18%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
367.7
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+7
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W12vsNov 21, 2026Not rated
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Full roster (105)
0RB0LB1WR2DB3WR3DB4RB4LB5WR5DB6RB6DB7WR8LB9TE10QB12QB12DB13QB14DL15LB18DB19DB20LB21DB22DL23WR23LB25DL35LB36LB40TE81TE87TE88TE88DL94DL98PK99DLLBDLLB8WR10DB11QB11LB13RB14WR16DB17RB17DB19QB20RB21WR24WR24DB26DL27WR27DB28DB29RB30WR30LB31WR31DB32DB32DL32P34LB34DB38DB39LB41LB42WR44LS46TE47LS50OL54OL55OL57OL59OL62OL63OL64OL65OL66OL68OL69OL70OL71OL72OL73OL75OL77OL83WR85TE86TE90PK92DL93DL95DL95PDLOL
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FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What are Alabama's playoff odds in 2026?
Alabama make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 13.8% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the SEC in 4.9%, and win the national title in 0.7%. The simulation re-runs daily.
How many games will Alabama win in 2026?
The simulation projects Alabama at 7 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.
What are Alabama's national title odds?
Alabama have a 2.5% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 2% on Polymarket.
How good are Alabama by the numbers?
In 2025 SP+, Alabama rank #20 overall (offense #36, defense #11).
Where can I trade Alabama markets?
On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.