Redshirt
Scout report

Miami 2026 outlook

The market gives Miami a 9.9% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%15%30%45%60%Jan 23Mar 12Apr 26Jun 4Jul 13Aug 21Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.23.2#7
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.22.4#5
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.2014
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.257.7#13
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.875
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.13%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.2
#9 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
47%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.15
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
-0.06
#7 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
36%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
19%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
404.9
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+10
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1@StanfordSep 5, 202696%Matchup
W2vsFlorida A&MSep 11, 2026Not rated
W3@Wake ForestSep 18, 202685%Matchup
W4vsCentral MichiganSep 26, 202699%Matchup
W5@ClemsonOct 3, 202680%Matchup
W7vsFlorida StateOct 17, 202689%Matchup
W8vsPittsburghOct 24, 202682%Matchup
W9@North CarolinaOct 31, 202684%Matchup
W10@Notre DameNov 8, 202636%Matchup
W11vsDukeNov 14, 202687%Matchup
W12vsVirginia TechNov 21, 202679%Matchup
W13vsBoston CollegeNov 28, 202697%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Darian Mensah
3973 yds, 34 TD
Rushing
Mark Fletcher Jr.
1192 yds, 12 TD
Receiving
Malachi Toney
109 rec, 1211 yds
Tackles
Omar Thornton
82 tot, 2 sk
Full roster (103)
0Girard Pringle Jr.RB0Omar ThorntonDB1Malachi ToneyWR2Jordan LyleRB2Damari BrownDB3Joshua MooreWR3Bryce FitzgeraldDB4Mark Fletcher Jr.RB4Cam PruittLB5Justin ScottDL6CharMar BrownRB6Xavier LucasDB7Zechariah PoyserDB8Vandrevius JacobsWR8Marquise LightfootDL9Elija LoftonTE9Chase SmithLB10Darian MensahQB11Kamal BonnerLB16Ja'Boree AntoineDB17Ezekiel Marcelin Jr.LB18Cooper BarkateWR18Armondo BlountDL23Dylan DayDB24Ethan O'ConnorDB28Isaiah TaylorDB29Romanas Frederique Jr.DB31Herbert Scroggins IIIDL33Booker Pickett Jr.DL46Adam BookerLS82Jack OlsenPK88Luka GilbertTE91Jarquez CarterDL94Dylan JoyceP97Keona DavisDL97Will RochaPK99Ahmad Moten Sr.DLJake WeinbergPKCam VaughnWRDamon Wilson IIDL5Luke NickelQB11Dereon ColemanQB13Vance SpaffordWR13Asharri CharlesDL14Israel BriggsTE15Judd AndersonQB15Brody JenningsDB18Joe BorchersQB18Vinny GonzalezQB19Milan ParrisWR20Chris Ewald Jr.DB21Javian MalloryRB21Camdin PortisDB22Kolby LunaWR25JJ DunniganDB27Ryan MackDB32Justin EdwardsLB33Nick ThomasWR34Jordan CampbellLB36Takai AzzizDB37Brenden CookWR37Cortez ReddingDB38Karsten BuschLB39Casey RizziLB40Brennan BurtonWR40Keshawn StancilDL42Logan NagleDL43Tyler RoweDB44Owen RuskavichTE44Tyson BaconDL45Braylon LamarLB47Stone StroudDB52Isaac ChukwurahDL53Canon PickettOL55JJ SparksOL55Mykah NewtonDL56Johnathan ClineOL58Ben CongdonOL59Vance DiepenbrockLS63Samson OkunlolaOL64Ralph ScrogginsOL65Seuseu AlofaituliOL66Max BuchananOL70Joel ErvinOL71Jamal MeriweatherOL72Demetrius CampbellOL75Jacob HawksOL76Ryan RodriguezOL77Juan MinayaOL78Matthew McCoyOL79Jackson CantwellOL80Hunter CarverTE81Riply LunaWR82Dylan ReimanTE83Tyran EvansWR84Jack NickelTE85Jackson CarverTE86Cole McConathy IITE87Gavin MuellerTE88DeAnthony LafayetteDL92Samuel CoufalDL93Fred SainteusDL96Tucker TevepaughP
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
12+ wins30%
11+ wins64%
10+ wins84%
9+ wins90%
8+ wins94%
7+ wins95%
6+ wins99%
5+ wins99%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Miami win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Miami's playoff odds in 2026?

Miami make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 64% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the ACC in 47.9%, and win the national title in 5.7%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Miami win in 2026?

The simulation projects Miami at 9.7 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Miami's national title odds?

Miami have a 9.9% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 11% on Kalshi.

How good are Miami by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Miami rank #7 overall (offense #9, defense #7).

Where can I trade Miami markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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