Scout report
App State 2026 outlook
App State are not currently priced in the title market, but here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.
Outlook
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.-12.7#111
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.-13.3#117
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1216
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.125.9#116
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.611
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.14%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.1
#104 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
41%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.19
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.18
#114 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
45%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
17%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
384.9
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
-3
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Full roster (113)
0LB0DB1DL1DB3DL4DB4TE5RB7DB7RB8WR8DB9QB9DB10LB11QB12WR13WR16WR22LB27DB33DL35LB41DL43PK44TE45DL55OL56LB80WR82WR85TE87TE94DL97DLRBWRDBRBDBQBDBQBDBLBLB-1?-1?-1?2RB6DL10QB17DB25WR26RB27P29PK30LS34TE36DB39PK39DB40LB42LB46DL49LB50DL52OL52DL53OL63OL64OL65OL66OL67OL68OL70OL73OL76OL77OL78OL81WR88WR88DL91DL98DLRBLBKDBOTWRPOLCBLSWRWRWRTELBCBDLOLDBQBSDLTESOLDLDL
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FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What are App State's playoff odds in 2026?
App State make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 0% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Sun Belt in 0%, and win the national title in 0%. The simulation re-runs daily.
How many games will App State win in 2026?
The simulation projects App State at 0 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.
How good are App State by the numbers?
In 2026 SP+, App State rank #111 overall (offense #104, defense #114).
Where can I trade App State markets?
On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.
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