Redshirt
Scout report

Ole Miss 2026 outlook

The market gives Ole Miss a 4.3% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%3%5%8%10%Jan 22Mar 10May 2Jun 18Jul 25Aug 27Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.15.6#20
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.19.3#9
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.2009
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.251.6#16
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.813
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.18%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.26
#11 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
49%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.28
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.04
#39 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
39%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
17%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
490.1
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+1
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsLouisvilleSep 6, 202656%Matchup
W2vsCharlotteSep 12, 202699%Matchup
W3vsLSUSep 19, 202644%Matchup
W4@FloridaSep 26, 202639%Matchup
W6@VanderbiltOct 10, 202658%Matchup
W7vsMissouriOct 17, 202657%Matchup
W8@TexasOct 24, 202625%Matchup
W9vsAuburnOct 31, 202665%Matchup
W10vsGeorgiaNov 7, 202627%Matchup
W11@OklahomaNov 14, 202639%Matchup
W12vsWoffordNov 21, 2026Not rated
W13vsMississippi StateNov 27, 202664%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Trinidad Chambliss
3937 yds, 22 TD
Rushing
Kewan Lacy
1567 yds, 24 TD
Receiving
Deuce Alexander
44 rec, 684 yds
Tackles
Keaton Thomas
99 tot, 1 sk
Full roster (105)
0Johntay Cook IIWR1Deuce AlexanderWR2Deuce KnightQB2Jaylon BraxtonCB3Caleb CunninghamWR3Blake PurchaseDE4Caleb OdomTE4Suntarine PerkinsLB5Kewan LacyRB5Kam FranklinDE6Trinidad ChamblissQB6Joenel AgueroS7Traylon RayWR7Sharif DensonS8AJ MaddoxQB8Antonio KiteCB9Luke HaszTE9Jehiem OatisDT11Horatio FieldsWR12Izaiah HartrupWR12Luke FerrelliLB13Cedrick BeaversCB14Walker HowardQB14Edwin JosephS15Darrell Gill Jr.WR17Jonathan MaldonadoDE17Lucas CarneiroPK22Cameron MillerWR22Raymond CollinsLB23Jarcoby HopsonLB24Andy JaffeS25Makhi FrazierRB29Nick CullS31Ladarian ClardyS33Shekai Mills-KnightRB33Oscar BirdP44Tony MitchellLB45Talib GrahamDE49Tah'j ButlerLB52Will EcholesDT76John Wayne OliverOL84Dillon AlfredWR88Michai BoireauDT95Andrew MaddoxDT96Jamarious BrownDT97Kamron BeaversDTKeaton ThomasLBIsaiah SpencerWRJordan RenaudDE0Jalyn CrawfordCB13Jack PattersonQB15Landon BarnesDE16George HamsleyQB16Dorian BarneyCB19MJ PrestonS21Tavoy FeaginCB25Maison DunnCB26JT LindseyRB26Ant Davis Jr.LB27Kervin Johnson Jr.WR27Pat BroomfieldCB28Joshua DyeRB28Dante CoreCB29William JonesWR30JaMichael GarrettLB32Victor Lincoln Jr.CB34Iverson McCoyCB36Ja'Michael JonesRB39Gerald Lacy Jr.S41John Ross AshleyCB41Peter McStravickPK42Jack HarperTE46Nascar McCoyS46Jackson MoorePK47Anthony AguirreWR50Troy EverettOL50Caleb BlankenshipLS52Cooper JohnsonOL53Trey NightingaleOL53Ford BeekerLB54Tre EllisDE55Terez DavisOL55Cam ClarkDE56Hayden ParkerLB57Carius CurneOL61Tommy Kinsler IVOL65Connor HowesOL67Kane MankinsOL69Joe KouryOL70Jalan ChapmanOL71Emanuel FaulknerOL75Patrick KutasOL80Hayden BradleyTE81Samari ReedWR83Levi BlountWR83Sean JudgeLS86Brady PrieskornTE88Jase MathewsWR89Dylan DavisWR90Jayden CurtisDT91Jamarion OwensDT93Richie BruderLS99Carmelow ReedDEEnoch WangoyOLJay CrawfordCB
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
12+ wins10%
11+ wins19%
10+ wins37%
9+ wins59%
8+ wins75%
7+ wins89%
6+ wins95%
5+ wins93%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Ole Miss win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Ole Miss's playoff odds in 2026?

Ole Miss make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 18% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the SEC in 4.7%, and win the national title in 1.1%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Ole Miss win in 2026?

The simulation projects Ole Miss at 7.8 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Ole Miss's national title odds?

Ole Miss have a 4.3% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 6% on Kalshi.

How good are Ole Miss by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Ole Miss rank #20 overall (offense #11, defense #39).

Where can I trade Ole Miss markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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