Redshirt
Scout report

Washington 2026 outlook

The market gives Washington a 0.8% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%3%5%8%10%Jan 23Mar 16Jun 11Jul 22Aug 12Sep 1Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.12.8#27
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.14#21
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1866
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.235.3#23
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.721
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.42%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.23
#43 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
49%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.25
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
-0.01
#17 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
38%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
15%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
411.2
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+5
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsWashington StateSep 6, 202690%Matchup
W2vsUtah StateSep 12, 202693%Matchup
W3vsEastern WashingtonSep 19, 2026Not rated
W4vsMinnesotaSep 27, 202671%Matchup
W5@USCOct 3, 202625%Matchup
W6vsIowaOct 10, 202645%Matchup
W7@PurdueOct 17, 202678%Matchup
W9@NebraskaOct 31, 202640%Matchup
W10vsPenn StateNov 7, 202641%Matchup
W11@Michigan StateNov 14, 202669%Matchup
W12vsIndianaNov 21, 202626%Matchup
W13@OregonNov 28, 202620%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Elijah Brown
829 yds, 4 TD
Rushing
Jayden Limar
262 yds, 3 TD
Receiving
Christian Moss
44 rec, 682 yds
Tackles
Alex McLaughlin
94 tot, 0 sk
Full roster (100)
0Taariq Al-UqdahLB2Dezmen RoebuckWR2Rahshawn ClarkCB3Emmanuel KarnleyCB4Jordan WashingtonRB4Rylon Dillard-AllenS5Christian MossWR6Dylan RobinsonCB7Elijah BrownQB7Alex McLaughlinS8Chris LawsonWR9Jacob ManuLB10Xe'ree AlexanderLB12Logan GeorgeEDGE16Justice WilliamsWR17Jayden LimarRB20D'Aryhian ClemonsRB20Grady GrossPK21Quaid CarrRB22Trey CooleyRB23Zaydrius Rainey-SaleLB26Elias JohnsonCB31Paul Mencke Jr.S32Ryken MoonRB33Darin ConleyDL44Kade EldridgeTE44Hayden MooreEDGE46Ta'ita'i UiagaleleiDL48Jacob LaneEDGE52Devin HydeEDGE58DeSean WattsDL86Decker DeGraafTE90Elinneus DavisDL91Isaiah WardEDGE95Tyler RoblesPK5Derek Colman-BrusaDL6Mason JamesWR8Ramonz Adams Jr.CB9Dash BeierlyQB10Treston McMillanQB11Jordan ClayWR11Ramzak FrueanEDGE12Trez DavisWR13Rahsjon DuncanCB17Elijah DurrCB18Bodpegn MillerWR18Kai McClendonDL21Gavin DayS24Jeron JonesCB25Donovan Robinson Jr.LB27Beck WalkerLB28Ksani JilesS29Julian McMahanRB30Ansu SanoeRB30Kayden GreeneCB33Ryan KeanLS34Brian Bonner Jr.RB35Jace BurtonWR36C.J. WallacePK38Hunter McKeePK40Ezaya TokioLB42Ben FerberLS45Austin SimmonsTE45Luke DunneP50David SchwerzelEDGE54Parker CrossOL54JD HillEDGE55Kolt DieterichOL55Victor Sanchez HernandezDL56Geirean HatchettOL56Ta'a MaluDL57Jesse Ewell Jr.LB64Tufanua Ionatana Umu-CaisDL64Tufanua Ionatana Unu-CaisDL65Jack ShafferOL66Landen HatchettOL67Aidan AndersonOL68Soane FaasoloOL70Justin HylkemaOL71Ah Deong Reti YangOL72John MillsOL73Champ TaulealeaOL74Drew AzzopardiOL75Lowen Colman-BrusaOL76Kodi GreeneOL77Elishah JackettOL78Jake FloresOL79Dominic HarrisOL80Blaise LaVistaWR81Asa ThompsonWR82Deji AjoseWR84Kekua AumuaTE85Baron NaoneTE88Sam VyhlidalTE89Charlie CrowellTE93Hunter GreenP94Joseph PekoDL98Omar KhanDLCJ ChristianS99Russell Davis IIEDGE
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
12+ wins3%
11+ wins5%
10+ wins16%
9+ wins31%
8+ wins47%
7+ wins63%
6+ wins82%
5+ wins91%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Washington win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Washington's playoff odds in 2026?

Washington make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 10.2% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Big Ten in 1.9%, and win the national title in 0.7%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Washington win in 2026?

The simulation projects Washington at 7.3 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Washington's national title odds?

Washington have a 0.8% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 1% on Kalshi.

How good are Washington by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Washington rank #27 overall (offense #43, defense #17).

Where can I trade Washington markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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