Scout report
Texas State 2026 outlook
Texas State are not currently priced in the title market, but here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.
Outlook
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.-5.9#91
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.-1.5#72
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1606
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.144.4#101
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.612
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.22%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.27
#32 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
46%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.32
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.11
#133 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
41%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
16%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
473.5
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
-5
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Full roster (102)
1WR1DB2WR3DB4RB5RB5DL7DB8QB8DB10QB10LB11WR11LB12LB13DL15LB16TE16LB17DB18TE21LB22DB24DB26DB29LB32DL36DB41PK56DL68OL90DL91DL96DL99DLDL0RB0DB2DB3WR6RB6DL9TE9DB12WR13WR14WR14DL15QB17QB18DL19DB20WR21RB23LB24RB25WR27DB30DL31DL33DL34DL35DL37DB38DL38PK40DL42DL43PK44DL49LB50OL51LS52OL53OL54OL55OL57LS58OL60OL62OL65OL66OL70OL71OL72OL74OL75OL77OL78OL79OL81WR83WR84TE85TE88TE88DL92P93DL94P95DLCB
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FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What are Texas State's playoff odds in 2026?
Texas State make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 0% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Pac-12 in 0%, and win the national title in 0%. The simulation re-runs daily.
How many games will Texas State win in 2026?
The simulation projects Texas State at 5 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.
How good are Texas State by the numbers?
In 2026 SP+, Texas State rank #91 overall (offense #32, defense #133).
Where can I trade Texas State markets?
On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.
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