Redshirt
Scout report

Ohio State 2026 outlook

The market gives Ohio State a 11.2% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%15%30%45%60%Jan 22Mar 4Apr 17May 28Jul 8Aug 18Sep 23

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Sep 23.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.29.7#1
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.27.6#2
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.2138
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.297.7#4
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.974
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.31%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.3
#5 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
53%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.15
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
-0.1
#1 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
36%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
16%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
423
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
+3
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1vsBall StateSep 5, 2026100%Matchup
W2@TexasSep 12, 202658%Matchup
W3vsKent StateSep 19, 2026100%Matchup
W4vsIllinoisSep 26, 202690%Matchup
W5@IowaOct 3, 202673%Matchup
W6vsMarylandOct 10, 202693%Matchup
W7@IndianaOct 17, 202654%Matchup
W9@USCOct 31, 202664%Matchup
W10vsOregonNov 7, 202668%Matchup
W11vsNorthwesternNov 14, 202693%Matchup
W12@NebraskaNov 21, 202678%Matchup
W13vsMichiganNov 28, 202685%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Julian Sayin
3610 yds, 32 TD
Rushing
Bo Jackson
1090 yds, 6 TD
Receiving
Jeremiah Smith
87 rec, 1243 yds
Tackles
Earl Little Jr.
76 tot, 0 sk
Full roster (104)
0Brandon InnissWR1Earl Little Jr.S2Kenyatta Jackson Jr.DE3Devin McCuinWR3James SmithDT4Jeremiah SmithWR4Qua RussawDE5Kyle ParkerWR5Riley PettijohnLB6Devin SanchezCB7Jermaine Mathews Jr.CB8Jaylen McClainS9Zion GradyDE10Julian SayinQB10Leroy Roker IIIS12Beau AtkinsonDE14Christian AlliegroLB16Justyn MartinQB17Tarvos AlfordLB18Cam CalhounCB24Ja'Kobi JacksonRB24Dominick KellyCB25Bo JacksonRB26Payton PierceLB33Eli LeeLB44Epi SitanileiDE46Ryan RudzinskiS53Will Smith Jr.DT82David AdolphWR83Nate RobertsTE85Bennett ChristianTE94Jason MooreDT96Eddrick HoustonDT96Connor HawkinsPKHunter WelcingTEJohn WalkerDTMason WilliamsTE2Legend BeyRB6Jerquaden GuilfordWR7Phillip BellWR8De'Zie JonesWR11Brock BoydWR11Terry MooreS13Luke FaheyQB13Miles LockhartCB15Chris Henry Jr.WR16Blaine BradfordS19Brady GeibelQB20Cincere JohnsonLB21Anthony RogersRB21Brenten JonesS23Nolan BaudoWR28Stanley Jackson Jr.RB28Simeon CaldwellS29Favour AkihRB30Khmari BingS32Kaden GebhardtS33Ryan SeimetzWR34Brennen SchrammWR36CJ SannaLB37Zach HayesLB38Frankie McAllisterTE38Eli RiggsLB39Glorien GoughDB41Braxton RembertLB42Joe McGuireP43Amar'e MillerCB43Brody JenkinsLS48Jackson GulaDB49Marcello DiomedePK50Alec DelSignoreLB51Luke MontgomeryOL52Ty HowardLB54Na'il Diggs Jr.LB55Dalton RiggsLS56Nate RiegleDE57Ian GecseOL60Jaxon PowellOL61Landon BealLS62Joshua PadillaOL63Julian Goines-JacksonOL64Simon LorentzOL65Tucker SmithOL66Landry BredeOL67Austin SiereveldOL69Ian MooreOL70Phillip DanielsOL72Deontae ArmstrongOL74Carter LoweOL75Carson HinzmanOL76Jake CookOL77Sam GreerOL78Max RileyOL80Jaeden RickettsWR87Brody LennonTE88Maxence LeBlancTE89Nick LautarTE90Damari SimeonDT91Darryus McKinleyDT92Cooper PetersonPK95Emanuel RuffinDT97Dre QuinnDE98Jamir PerezDTVasean WashingtonOT
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
11+ wins27%
10+ wins56%
9+ wins75%
8+ wins89%
7+ wins93%
6+ wins95%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade Ohio State win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are Ohio State's playoff odds in 2026?

Ohio State make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 66.1% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Big Ten in 24.2%, and win the national title in 11.8%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will Ohio State win in 2026?

The simulation projects Ohio State at 8.3 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are Ohio State's national title odds?

Ohio State have a 11.2% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 12% on Kalshi.

How good are Ohio State by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, Ohio State rank #1 overall (offense #5, defense #1).

Where can I trade Ohio State markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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