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Scout report

UCLA 2026 outlook

The market gives UCLA a 2.6% chance to win the national title, here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.

Odds history
National title · implied price, this season
0%3%5%8%10%Oct 11Oct 16Oct 21Oct 26Oct 31Nov 5Nov 7

Real implied price since the market opened. Each line is a venue's daily closing price; the consensus is their daily average. As of Nov 7.

Outlook
Natl title
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.14.4#17
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.-2.4#75
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1322
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.202.3#46
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.767
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.22%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.05
#38 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
41%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.17
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.22
#19 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
50%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
12%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
319.8
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
-3
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W1@CaliforniaSep 6, 202689%Matchup
W2vsSan Diego StateSep 12, 202694%Matchup
W3vsPurdueSep 20, 202684%Matchup
W4@MarylandSep 26, 202680%Matchup
W6@OregonOct 10, 202638%Matchup
W7vsWisconsinOct 17, 202669%Matchup
W8vsMichigan StateOct 24, 202688%Matchup
W9vsNevadaOct 31, 202689%Matchup
W10@MinnesotaNov 7, 202669%Matchup
W11vsIllinoisNov 14, 202673%Matchup
W12@MichiganNov 21, 202651%Matchup
W13vsUSCNov 28, 202656%Matchup
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Passing
Nico Iamaleava
1928 yds, 13 TD
Rushing
Wayne Knight
1373 yds, 9 TD
Receiving
Leland Smith
43 rec, 695 yds
Tackles
Trent Hendrick
96 tot, 3 sk
Full roster (107)
0Donavyn PellotLB1Aidan MizellWR1Scooter JacksonDB2Brian Rowe Jr.WR2Rodrick PleasantDB3Wayne KnightRB4Semaj MorganWR4Cole MartinDB6Tao JohnsonDB7Mikey MatthewsWR9Nico IamaleavaQB10Sammy OmosighoLB11Landon EllisWR12Malik HartfordDB15Mateen BhaghaniPK18Osiris GilbertDB19Ryan McCullochLB21Dante LovettDB22Dylan LeeRB22Ty LeeDB24Cole CogshellDL25Trent HendrickLB27Ta'Shawn JamesDB32Troy LeigberRB33Karson CoxRB35Curtis GerrandP36Wyatt MosierLB55A.J. FuimaonoDL82Noah Fox-FloresTE85Brayden LoftinTE89Josh PhiferTE92Darold DeNgoheDL95Tyson FordDL97Aiden GobairaDLAmier WashingtonDLCarter SweazieOLSahir WestDLDrew SpinogattiLBLeland SmithWR10Madden IamaleavaQB11Nico DavillierDL12Jace BrownWR14Ty DieffenbachQB15Marcus HarrisWR17Colton GuminoQB17Lucien HollandLB18DJ BordeauxQB19Harry LodgeTE19Lennox MillerP20Shane RosenthalWR23Jackson MeehanWR23Jhase McMillanDB25Major PrideWR25Kuron Jabari Jr.DB26Markus KierWR26CJ LavenderDB28Mason RiveraDB29Robert James IIIDL30Zeke JohnsonDB30Halakilangi Muagututi'aLS31Chase ColemanDB31Mateo OroscoPK32Derrick BarksdaleDB33Dallin HaveaDL35Logan HirouDB37Joshua DixonDB39Anthony SaccaLB40Mone MalafuLB43Brett BarryDB44Peter BarioTE44Ashton SandersDL44Giancarlo CereghinoLS45Jamier JohnsonDB45Chase BarryP50Salem Abdul-WahabLS51Riley RobellOL53Jacob ReisLB54Derek OsmanOL54Ty PartlowDL55Eugene BrooksOL57Matt MuasauLB58Jaylan JeffersOL59Gavin BlumDL61Lucas HickeyOL62Michael PriceOL65Hall SchmidtOL67Cam JensenOL68Jordan DavisOL69Cooper JavorskyOL71Sean Na'aOL72K.D. ArnoldOL73Quinn BuckeyOL74Julian ArmellaOL75Nehemiah JohnsonOL76Mack IndestadOL77JD DeanOL78Michael McDonaldOL81Kenneth Moore IIIWR86Jalen Saint PaulWR87Dylan SimsTE88Stevie Amar Jr.TE88Grant BuckeyDL94Marcus AlmadaDL96James MoffatDL99Maxwell RoyDLJD RaynerOTDJ BarksdaleCB
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FAQ
Season win total
Live Kalshi market thresholds
12+ wins26%
11+ wins64%
10+ wins90%

Yes price = implied probability of clearing the line. Trade UCLA win totals on Kalshi with code FADE: trade $25, get up to $500.

Frequently asked questions

What are UCLA's playoff odds in 2026?

UCLA make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 43.8% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Big Ten in 29.5%, and win the national title in 1.9%. The simulation re-runs daily.

How many games will UCLA win in 2026?

The simulation projects UCLA at 10.3 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.

What are UCLA's national title odds?

UCLA have a 2.6% consensus title probability for 2026, cheapest at 4% on Kalshi.

How good are UCLA by the numbers?

In 2026 SP+, UCLA rank #17 overall (offense #38, defense #19).

Where can I trade UCLA markets?

On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.

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