Scout report
Troy 2026 outlook
Troy are not currently priced in the title market, but here is the full picture: live price history, championship odds, and how they rate and play, all from real data.
Outlook
SP+ pctile
Returning
Team profile
Percentile vs FBS · 2025 stats, 2026 SP+
National ratings
CollegeFootballData · 2025, SP+ 2026 in-season
SP+ overallSP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.-6.2#93
FPIFPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.-6.8#93
EloElo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.1384
RecruitingRecruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.164.7#82
TalentTalent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.562
Returning prod.Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.24%
Efficiency profile
Per play · 2025
Off PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0
#97 nationally
Off successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
38%
ExplosivenessExplosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
1.28
Def PPAPPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
0.05
#87 nationally
Def successSuccess rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
40%
HavocHavoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
16%
Yards/gameTotal yards gained per game.
307.2
Turnover marginTurnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
0
What these metrics mean
SP+ overall. SP+: Bill Connelly's tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, expressed in points above average.
FPI. FPI: ESPN's Football Power Index, an overall measure of team strength.
Elo. Elo: a rating that rises or falls after each game based on the result and the quality of the opponent.
Recruiting. Recruiting: the national ranking of the team's incoming recruiting class.
Talent. Talent: a composite of the roster's recruiting ratings.
Returning prod.. Returning production: the percent of last season's production (weighted by impact) coming back this year.
Off PPA. PPA (Predicted Points Added): the average point value each play adds. Higher is better for offense, lower for defense.
Off success. Success rate: the share of plays that stay on schedule (roughly 50% of needed yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). Higher is better.
Explosiveness. Explosiveness: the average value of a team's successful plays, i.e. how big its good plays are when they hit.
Havoc. Havoc rate: the share of plays where the defense makes a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup.
Yards/game. Total yards gained per game.
Turnover margin. Turnover margin: takeaways minus giveaways over the season.
2026 schedule
Bars show the model's projected win probability
W2vsSep 12, 2026Not rated
Roster & leaders
2026 roster · 2025 stat leaders
Full roster (101)
0DT1RB1CB2LB3RB4LB5WR6QB6S8S9QB10QB11DT12CB13WR13LB14CB15WR17CB18LB20LB21RB22DB25RB25DE28P29S44LB45DB65OL69DT85TE87LSDL0RB2WR3LB4WR5DB7WR7CB8WR9S10S11QB12WR14TE16S16PK17WR18WR19TE19S20PK21CB22RB23LB24LB26RB27S28CB30S32CB33PK34DE35LB36S40DT41DE46LB49P51OL52DT53DB54OL55OL56OL57OL58OL59OL66OL67OL68LS71OL72OL73OL74OL75OL77OL79OL80TE81WR82WR84WR86TE88DE89TE93DT95DT98DE99DT
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FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What are Troy's playoff odds in 2026?
Troy make the 2026 College Football Playoff in 0.9% of our 10,000 season simulations, win the Sun Belt in 12%, and win the national title in 0%. The simulation re-runs daily.
How many games will Troy win in 2026?
The simulation projects Troy at 7 wins on average across 10,000 runs of the real 2026 schedule.
How good are Troy by the numbers?
In 2026 SP+, Troy rank #93 overall (offense #97, defense #87).
Where can I trade Troy markets?
On Polymarket (TGSWC), Kalshi (FADE) and ProphetX (VAULT). Prices differ by venue, so compare for the best price.
Trade Troy on Polymarket
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